Labor fails to gain ground in key electorates vital for election victory

The May federal election is shaping up to be a seat-by-seat slugfest, as polls reveal a shift to minor parties in some critical contests.

Scott Morrison is in a strong position to hold on to Victoria’s most marginal seat, but the Coalition’s vote has collapsed in two other electorates targeted by Labor.

Polling – commissioned by the Herald Sun – of nine battleground electorates ­reveals the May election is shaping up as a seat-by-seat slugfest, with Labor’s strong lead in national polls not translating consistently in key races and the minor parties receiving a large protest vote.

In Victoria, the Liberal Party’s primary vote in Chisholm has slightly improved to 45 per cent in the face of a determined Labor campaign to make it one of the eight seats it needs to win to form government with a 76-seat majority.

But support for the Prime Minister and his government has crashed by double digits in the Sydney seat of Reid and the Perth electorate of Swan, putting Labor in the box seat to claim both, despite a rise in the number of voters indicating they will give their first preference to One Nation.

KJC Research produced the polling, with about 800 voters surveyed in each seat on Thursday and Saturday last week.

Support for Scott Morrison’s government has crashed by double digits in some seats. Picture: Dan Peled

While it identified widespread dissatisfaction with Mr Morrison’s performance in the nation’s top job, Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings were similarly poor, with far more voters still on the fence about the Labor leader.

Mr Morrison remains the preferred prime minister in Chisholm – which takes in the suburbs of Box Hill, Burwood, Blackburn, Chadstone, Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill – as well as the government-held Queensland seats of Flynn and Longman and the NSW electorate of Gilmore, which Labor is clinging on to in the face of strong Coalition campaigning.

The past three Newspolls have given Labor a nationwide 55-45 per cent two-party-preferred lead, with Labor’s primary vote at 41 per cent while the Coalition has fallen behind on 35 per cent.

Since the South Australian Liberal government was swept from power at last weekend’s election, concern has mounted within the Morrison government about its federal seat of Boothby where Liberal MP Nicolle Flint is retiring.

The KJC Research poll found the party’s primary vote had fallen by 7 per cent since the 2019 federal election, although those voters shifted more to minor parties than to Labor, putting the fate of the seat in doubt.

In Swan, where Liberal member Steve Irons is also retiring, the government’s primary vote crashed to 31 per cent while support for Labor climbed to 37 per cent, with 19 per cent of voters preferring One Nation or Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

The poll confirms the Liberals’ fears about losing Reid in Sydney. Sitting MP Fiona Martin’s primary vote plummeted from 48.32 per cent to 33 per cent.

One Nation – which did not run a candidate last time – received a 13 per cent share of the primary vote even though it is yet to select someone to run.

It is a similar story in Gilmore, where One Nation polled at 8 per cent from a standing start, despite not having a candidate in the field. The Liberal primary vote there is at 36 per cent, giving former NSW minister Andrew Constance a chance to win it from Labor’s Fiona Phillips.

In the Tasmanian seat of Bass, Liberal MP Bridget Archer improved her primary vote to 45 per cent off the back of the strongest personal rating of the sitting MPs across each of the nine seats.

Liberal member Gladys Liu is holding on in Chisholm. Picture: AAP Image

The poll found 59 per cent of Bass voters viewed her favourably and 17 per cent unfavourably, compared to 28 per cent satisfied with the performance of the Prime Minister and 60 per cent who were dissatisfied.

While senior Liberal figures have been growing in confidence about their chances of trimming Labor’s strong margins in Melbourne’s outer suburban seats, the poll showed the government’s primary vote had slumped by 10 per cent in Dunkley.

In that seat in Melbourne’s southeast – including the suburbs of Frankston, Langwarrin, Carrum Downs, Seaford and Mt Eliza – just 32 per cent of voters thought the government had done a good or very good job for three years, while 49 per cent said it had been poor or very poor.

In Queensland, Labor’s primary vote remains too low in Flynn and Longman to seriously challenge the Coalition.

Originally published as Labor fails to gain ground in key electorates vital for election victory