Liberals claim victory in Prahran, Werribee on a knife’s edge
The Liberal Party has claimed Victory in Prahran, with the Opposition leader Brad Battin saying voters were “sick of the Greens and Labor destroying their lives”.
Victoria
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The Liberal Party has increased its number in state parliament for the first time in 15 years, stealing the seat of Prahran from the Greens.
Liberal candidate Rachel Westaway claimed victory on Sunday after the Greens conceded defeat in the seat they have held since 2014.
It takes the Liberals’ number in the legislative assembly from 19 to 20 – the party’s first increase since winning the 2010 election under Ted Baillieu.
Since then, its number has steadily dropped from a high of 35 seats to just 19.
Opposition Leader Brad Battin spoke alongside Ms Westaway on Sunday afternoon, saying their victory was because voters were “sick of the Greens and Labor destroying their lives”.
“Here in Prahran, we are very proud to declare that we can claim victory in a seat that many people didn’t think was possible three or four weeks ago,” Mr Battin said.
“We also know that people need a strong voice in parliament and they have not seen that here in Prahran.”
Mr Battin believed the electorate trusted Ms Westaway because of her strong community ties.
“She has lived here for 20 years. She knows what it’s like when Chapel St has changed so much and the impacts on families. She’s a local mum, but more importantly, she’s passionate about the Prahran community.”
Ms Westaway credited her focus on the rising crime rate in Prahran for helping her secure the win.
“I love Chapel Street, but enough is enough with the crime that we have seen,” she said.
“This is a vote against 10 years of waste we’ve had with the Greens.”
Victorian Greens leader Ellen Sandell blamed low voter turnout and the flow of preferences for the loss.
As of Sunday afternoon, Ms Westaway had picked up a 5.5 per cent swing and was leading the Greens’ Angelica Di Camillo 51.6 per cent to 48.4 per cent.
The Greens lost 0.6 per cent from their primary vote, but that would have been much higher if Labor had fielded a candidate.
With no Labor candidate in the running, pollsters said the Greens picked up a swag of votes they otherwise would not have.
The Liberals scored a massive boost in the flow of preferences from independent – and former Labor MP for the seat – Tony Lupton, who received 12.8 per cent of the primary vote.
“We had a situation where the former Labor MP and unofficial Labor candidate funnelled preferences to the Liberal Party,” Ms Sandell said.
“That’s what’s made the difference this time.
“Our primary vote held up despite the fact this was a by-election held during the uni summer holidays where a lot of young people — traditionally Greens voters — weren’t around, weren’t able to vote.”
“There was no absentee voting, which usually strongly favours the Greens.
“I’m looking forward to winning back the seat at the general state election next year.”
Ms Sandell said she did not believe the party lost due to their lack of policies addressing crime in the electorate.
She said cost of living, housing and climate change were key issues for locals.
She also took aim at Labor and its declining popularity among Victorians.
“I’m sure that’s for others to talk about, but I think that if they’re not setting a positive vision for the future that people can relate to,” she said.
“This trend of people moving away from the major parties, who are not who are just doing the same old, same old.
“People are looking for alternative voices and if you just keep voting for the same two major parties, you’re going to keep getting the same result.”
‘Neck and neck’: Werribee by-election goes down to the wire
The Allan government has copped a massive swing against them in the Werribee by-election, with fears the Labor Party could lose the seat for the first time since 1979.
Labor has thrown hundreds of thousands of dollars at a campaign to retain the western suburbs seat, which it holds with a 10.9 per cent margin, but there have been grave concerns about a backlash by disaffected voters who say they have been neglected by the government.
Crime and transport infrastructure have emerged as major issues for locals, who say the heartland seat has been ignored for too long while the government throws billions of dollars to shore up support in more marginal seats across Melbourne, including along the southeast growth corridor.
11pm: Libs ‘confident’ in Prahran, Greens retire for the night
There was a jubilant air in the Prahran Hotel as Opposition Leader Brad Battin announced the party was “increasingly confident” it would win the seat of Prahran.
“There’s still a lot of postal votes outstanding,” Mr Battin said.
“At this very point, we are increasingly confident that Rachel Westaway has done enough.
“Thank you so much for each and every person in this room.”
The Greens have wrapped up for the night, with Victorian leader Ellen Sandell saying the result was too close to call.
10pm: Allan says Werribee ‘going down to the wire’
Premier Jacinta Allan has arrived at the Labor function to a chorus of cheers and applause.
In her address to the sea of red shirts, Ms Allan gave credit to candidate John Lister.
“We have to be clear, it is still a tight night,” she said.
“There is still a way to go tonight.
“It is going down to the wire.”
Ms Allan said by-elections were tough, but they gave an opportunity for the community to send a message to the government.
She added Labor had knocked on 21,000 doors and made 9000 calls during the campaign.
“We have been out there speaking to the communities, to the families, to the people of Werribee,” she said.
She said it is “absolutely clear” the government had to do more in Werribee to address the cost of living crisis, as well as crime fears.
10pm: Battin takes to stage, as Greens say too close to call
Victorian Greens leader Ellen Sandell has told the crowd in Prahran the result is too close to call.
“It is on a knife’s edge,” she said.
On his return to Prahran, Opposition Leader Brad Battin and Liberal candidate Rachel Westaway were welcomed into the pub with thunderous chants and applause.
“It so great to see a sea of blue out in Prahran backing Rachel to ensure that we get our message out to the community,” Mr Battin said.
“I’ve been out there with Rachael whether it’s going into shops, speaking to communities and hearing what they’ve got to say.
“And they’ve been telling us they’re living in fear.
“They’re telling us it’s time for change.”
Ms Westaway’s “proud” husband Simon Westaway said it was “obviously extremely close”. “Hopefully, hopefully we get there with the final count.”
9.30pm: Labor, Libs neck-and-neck in Werribee
With more than 29 per cent of the votes counted, Labor candidate John Lister is leading with 51.35 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, with Liberal candidate Steve Murphy following closely behind on 48.65 per cent.
The Liberal Party needs an 11 per cent swing to take the seat.
The swing to the Liberals is currently sitting at 7.4 per cent.
9.20pm: Labor can ‘scrape over the line to win Werribee’
ABC’s chief elections analyst Antony Green has said Werribee is too close to call.
“If there is one thing to draw from the Werribee result so far is that there is little point paying attention to national two-party preferred results in polling if the major party vote is going to be so low,” Mr Green said.
But before 9.30pm, he said Labor could still win.
“On the polling place results, Labor can scrape over the line to win Werribee, but we need to see the pre-polls, which will make up more than half of all votes,” he said.
9pm: Labor candidate edging out Libs in Werribee
Labor candidate John Lister is narrowly beating Liberal candidate Steve Murphy on the first preference count.
Before 9pm, Mr Lister had 4426 votes – or 28.7 per cent of the counted vote so far – compared to Mr Murphy’s 4130.
Independent Paul Hopper had claimed 2126 votes.
On a two-party preferred basis, Mr Lister slightly leads Mr Murphy.
But the Liberals are in front of Labor in the count of the early postal votes.
One senior Labor Party figure said they were “feeling OK” with how things were playing out but pointed to the fact they needed to win early votes.
John’s mother Meg Lister said she felt nervous, but very proud of her son.
“I’m confident that he’s done everything he can possibly do,” she said.
“It’s going to be a bit tight.
“He won’t lose, he just doesn’t win, if that’s the case.”
Ms Lister said John was a proud local who wanted to make the community a better place.
“He sees something and he wants to do something about it.”
She Lister said she was looking forward to the campaign ending so she could spend more time with her son.
8.30pm: Deputy Premier Ben Carroll ‘confident’ in Labor
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll arrived at Labor’s party about 8pm, where he immediately started working the room to greet MPs, staffers and volunteers.
Mr Carroll was seen posing for pictures with locals.
Ministers Ingrid Stitt, Anthony Carbines and Nick Staikos were in attendance, as well as MPs including Katie Hall, Mathew Hilakari and Ella George.
Federal Lalor MP Joanne Ryan – who represents Melbourne’s western suburbs including Werribee – was also at the party.
Mr Carroll said by-elections were always nerve-racking but he was confident Labor had the “best candidate in the field”.
“I am still very confident that he will make a great member of parliament (but there’s) a long way to go,” he said.
“I came through a by-election myself and I know they’re a long night and a long day.
“I always knew this was going to be a very tough by-election. It’s in a third year of a four-year term.
“It was always going to be tough, but we’ve run a great campaign and a great local candidate.”
Mr Carroll said Premier Jacinta Allan would maintain the full support of her caucus regardless of Saturday night’s result.
“She is doing an excellent job,” he said.
8.15pm: Votes begin to come through in Prahran
The Greens have taken an early lead in the inner-city seat, with 6140 primary votes by 8.19pm and 52.4 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, while the Liberals sat at 4733 and 47.6 per cent.
Independent Tony Lupton had claimed 2,041 votes.
7.45pm: Groth pumps up crowd, supporters wait on votes
Deputy Liberal leader Sam Groth has thanked volunteers during a speech at the Prahran Hotel, alongside shadow ministers David Southwick, Georgie Crozier and David Davis.
Mr Groth took stage to thank the “sea of blue” for supporting the Liberals at the polls.
“People are sick of the Greens here in Prahran,” he said.
“They’ve sent a clear message over the last two weeks … that they want someone to stand up for the things that matter.
“They’re sick of the crime here in Prahran. They’re sick of the cost of living, their rents going up. They’re sick of the congestion.
“They want Prahran, once again, to be the Chapel St that they used to remember.
“They want to be able to park on the street and not have to worry whether the next morning they wake up, if their car is going to be there or not.”
Two hours after the polls closed, Prahran votes were still yet to start coming through.
7.30pm: Early results in Werribee positive for Libs
The first few votes have excited Liberal Party supporters in Werribee.
At the 2022 election, the Liberals recorded 73 primary votes – out of a total of 312 – at Little River, while Labor recorded 116.
As of 7.15pm, the Liberals had hit 117 primary votes, with Labor trailing at 59.
As the votes trickled in, there was a strong sense of nerves among the Labor Party faithful in Werribee, despite constant chatter in the room.
Attendees were hooked to their phones constantly refreshing for any updates.
“We’re pretty nervous,” said one attendee.
6.30pm: Labor Party faithful pack Werribee election party
There was a feeling of nervous anticipation among the sea of red shirts inside the Werribee Centrals Cricket Club at Galvin Park.
“It’s actually more positive than I was expecting,” said one Labor staffer.
Health Minister Mary-Anne Thomas and Labor MPs Belinda Wilson and Dylan Wight were among the first to arrive.
Ms Thomas said nothing was guaranteed, when asked if she felt confident Labor would get over the line.
“By-elections, of course, are always tough, but we couldn’t have asked for more from our candidate John,” she said.
“I hope that it’s a great night. I also hope it’s a short night.
“Whatever happens tonight we’ve heard from the people of Werribee, we’ll keep fighting for the people of Werribee.”
Ms Thomas insisted Premier Jacinta Allan’s job would be safe regardless of the result.
“We have done everything we can to tell our story to the people of Werribee, but regardless of the results we’ll keep fighting for them,” she said.
“As a Labor caucus and a parliamentary team, everyone has Jacinta’s back.”
Ms Thomas also took aim at the Liberal candidate.
“Our candidate is a star candidate. If the Liberals are serious then that’s not very reflective in their choice of candidate,” she said.
“I don’t know that a real estate agent that lives in Essendon is what the people of Werribee are looking for as the person to represent them in parliament.”
6.20pm: Sam Groth paces pub as polls close
Deputy Liberal leader Sam Groth could be seen on his phone pacing the stairs at the Prahran Hotel before mingling with supporters on the ground pub’s ground floor.
Despite expecting a tight race, supporters remained confident of a “strong swing” towards the Liberal Party.
“I’m seeing people I’ve never seen before, meaning the movement is growing,” Rion, a local business owner, said.
“There is more people with the confidence to express their political and economic dissatisfaction.
“People when they’re hurting feel the need to get involved.”
Another Liberal Party member, who joined a growing crowd at the pub, said it was “really positive on the ground”.
“People are clearly upset with the status quo and have made it clear they want to change things,” they said.
“Hopefully they choose us tonight.”
Liberal volunteer Wesley Steer was also feeling confident.
“We ran a very strong campaign, I think we should get a good strong swing towards us,” he said.
“If we win, I will be ecstatic.”
6pm: Cheers as polls close
Political volunteers stationed outside Werribee Secondary College let out a loud cheer as the polling booths closed at 6pm.
A handful of locals cast their vote only minutes before cut-off.
One late arrival, who asked not to be named, said she directed her vote to the Liberals.
“We need a change,” she said.
3pm: Werribee voters turn out for critical by-election
It was all hands on deck in Werribee as the battle between the two major parties reached its final stretch.
With how-to-vote cards in hand, Opposition Leader Brad Battin was clearly determined to pull off the Liberals’ first win in the seat in 46 years.
Mr Battin and Labor candidate John Lister spent the final hours before polling closed chatting to voters outside Iramoo Primary School.
Earlier in the day, Premier Jacinta Allan appeared in Wyndham Vale, confident the party would hold the Labor heartland seat thanks to the strength of their candidate.
“We have a great Labor team,” she said.
“Unlike the divided Liberal Party, who are all about themselves.
“What we have here in Werribee in John Lister is a strong local Labor candidate, not like the Liberal Party, (John) is a CFA volunteer and former teacher.”
Mr Battin admitted history was against them, noting voters liked to stick to the status quo at by-elections.
“The change of seats during a by-election is always difficult,” he said.
“The last time we had a change to us from the Labor Party was 1948, to put it into perspective.”
Labor foot soldiers were consistent with their message on Saturday, taking aim at the fact Liberal candidate Steve Murphy did not live in the area.
But Mr Murphy appeared unfazed, saying it was a non-issue.
“Tim Pallas and many other major Labor MP’s don’t live in their seats,” he said.
“I’ve lived, worked and raised my kids in Werribee. I shifted (to Essendon) during Covid to be within a 5km radius of my kids.
“I wanted to be near my children, so I could see my children. I am a good family man.”
Ultimately, the power was in the voters’ hands, with some sticking to their usual voting pattern while others decided to take a chance on independents.
“I voted Labor, just because I always vote Labor,” Lily told the Sunday Herald Sun.
While couple Susan and Graham said they “vote Liberal every election” and that “hadn’t changed” today.
Independents also garnered support, with local Pat losing confidence in the “big parties”.
“I actually voted for one of the independents,” he said.
“I am a bit over the big parties, they aren’t doing a great job.”
Meanwhile, one cheeky voter admitted that he had followed his years-long approach to elections.
“To be honest I didn’t even look,” he said. “I just scribbled on the bit of paper and dropped it in the box. I never vote.”
Liberal MP Evan Mulholland, who was handing out how-to-vote cards alongside Mr Murphy, said beating Labor would not be easy, but the general feeling was strong.
“It’s a tough ask to win a by-election,” he said.
“The vibe is good. People are coming up to us and saying there’s a real mood for change. It’s not just in Werribee, but also in Craigieburn and Clyde.
“People have had enough of Labor neglecting them.”
Volunteers for the Socialist Party taunted Labor volunteers outside the polling booth, accusing the state government of abandoning Palestine.
1pm: Battle for Prahran heats up
The Greens and the Liberals are battling it out in Melbourne’s inner-east in a bid to claim the highly-prized seat of Prahran, with well-known MPs offering helping hands.
Thousands of voters streamed into polling booths across Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor for the by-election triggered by the resignation of disgraced Greens MP Sam Hibbins.
The Liberals are a chance to snatch the seat from the Greens, who have held it since 2014, with Labor choosing not to run a candidate.
The inner-city contest was at times tense, with independent Buzz Billman pulling his volunteers due to the alleged behaviour of volunteers from right-wing lobby group Advance.
“Unfortunately, due to the negative campaign from Advance, this polling booth cannot be staffed by volunteers for Buzz out of fear for their safety,” a sign read.
“Buzz has witnessed Advance volunteers verbally abuse other volunteers and voters who do not agree with them.”
But it is understood Advance disputes these claims, alleging “appalling behaviour” from the Greens’ volunteers.
Greens candidate Angelica Di Camillo was supported by federal Greens leader Adam Bandt, while state Liberal MPs, including former tennis ace Sam Groth, were spotted handing out how-to-vote cards for their candidate Rachel Westaway.
Mr Groth said he was confident voters were “looking for a change”.
“If (Ms Westaway) does get the opportunity to join us in parliament, she’s going to be a great addition to the team,” he said.
“She’s run a fantastic campaign with good local support.”
Former Liberal premier Ted Baillieu and former federal Liberal MP Kelly O’Dwyer were at a South Yarra booth offering their support, while controversial state Greens MP Gabrielle de Vietri was also sighted.
Ms Westaway, a businesswoman who has focused her campaign on crime, questioned the Greens’ policies to push for 50 cent public transport fares and cheaper groceries by capping the prices of essentials.
“I know (voters) will understand (the Greens) cannot deliver what they are offering people,” she said, speaking alongside Opposition Leader Brad Battin.
“It’s like giving away free lollipops for votes.”
But Ms Di Camillo, a 26-year-old environmental engineer, said the minor party held the shared balance of power in the upper house.
“We really have influence to work with the government to push them to go harder and faster on the issues that our community really cares about,” she said.
“We’ve knocked on almost 14,000 doors in Prahran … and people have told us they want action on housing affordability, climate change and especially cost of living.”
A police officer told the Sunday Herald Sun he would cast his vote for the Liberals now led by Mr Battin, a former police officer.
Another Liberal voter said it was “time for a change”, citing the party’s strong leadership on anti-Semitism at a federal level.
“I’ve been a swing voter, so I’ve never voted Greens anyway, I find them pretty repugnant,” she said.
But a young Greens voter said she had always voted for the minor party because they aligned with her values.
Some locals were so keen to cast their vote they travelled to polling booths without realising they lived outside the electorate.
5am: ‘Increasingly nervous’: Labor insiders’ fears for result
Premier Jacinta Allan was conspicuously absent from campaigning in Werribee on Friday, sparking suggestions her brand was unhelpful to getting popular local candidate John Lister over the line.
“Absolutely shitting ourselves,” one party figure said on Friday evening when describing the mood.
One insider said they felt “increasingly nervous”, while another predicted the government would hold on but “only by the skin of our teeth”.
Saturday’s by-election was sparked by the resignation of long-serving MP and Treasurer Tim Pallas, who comfortably retained the seat at the 2022 election.
But cash-strapped voters and a general sense of neglect has the party faithful worried such a result will not be replicated this time around.
“If we don’t cop a swing against us, Jacinta should call an election tomorrow,” one MP joked.
Mr Lister is a long-time Werribee local, a teacher and CFA volunteer who is well-liked in the community, while Liberal candidate Steve Murphy has raised eyebrows.
Mr Murphy, a real estate agent who used to live in the electorate but now lives in Essendon, has run a campaign highlighting the pinch points of crime, infrastructure and cost of living.
Labor is banking on Mr Lister’s local charm will be enough to get him over the line, with doorknockers saying he’s received a positive reception.
“The Libs, thankfully for us, chose a substandard candidate,” one source said.
A loss for Labor – while not impacting their ability to govern – will inevitably spell trouble for Ms Allan and her authority, which has already been bruised by terrible polling.
Sources said she would not immediately be forced to consider stepping down, but internal chatter and conversations about her ability to win the 2026 election will be almost guaranteed.
The Saturday Herald Sun has been told that at last week’s Labor caucus conference – which featured a “rev up” from Queensland Labor Party – Ms Allan delivered a speech to her MPs where she said she was relying on them to get behind her.
On Friday, several MPs said they did not want to think about the prospect of a leadership change.
Senior minister Gabrielle Williams, who recently enjoyed a big promotion in the cabinet reshuffle, also sought to shut down any talk Ms Allan’s future could be on the line.
Ms Allan on Friday said: “I am focused on Victorians and I will continue to work incredibly hard.”
Originally published as Liberals claim victory in Prahran, Werribee on a knife’s edge
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