Federal Election 2025: The Victorian seats that are still too close to call
Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie has managed to hang on to her seat in Flinders in a much-needed win for the browbeaten party.
Victoria
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Two federal seats across Victoria remain in doubt, as ballot counting continues on Friday.
Labor MP Lisa Chesters is set to hold the electorate of Bendigo following a tough contest from the Nationals.
Sky News Australia called the seat for Ms Chesters on Friday morning, with Nationals candidate Andrew Lethlean expected to fall more than 2000 votes behind.
She leads 50.8 per cent to 49.2 per cent on a two-candidate preferred, with nearly 89 per cent of the vote has been counted.
Ms Chesters held the seat by an 11.2 per cent margin going into the election but has suffered an 8.2 per cent swing against her.
In a glimmer of hope for the Liberals, candidates Mary Aldred and MP Zoe McKenzie are also predicted to win their respective three cornered contests in the seats of Monash and Flinders.
The electorate of Monash was formerly held by Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent.
Ms Aldred has more than 32 per cent of the first preference votes, followed by Labor candidate Tully Fletcher on 20 per cent and independent Deb Leonard on 17 per cent.
If Ms Leonard finished in second spot, the votes needed from preference flows are likely to be too high to attain, putting victory out of reach for the Climate 200-backed candidate.
Ms McKenzie is expected to be re-elected for a second term, with the battle for the second and third spots also close in Flinders.
At least 86 per cent of the votes in the Mornington Peninsula electorate have been counted.
Ms McKenzie, who has 41.59 per cent of first preference votes, remains ahead of Labor candidate Sarah Race who has 22.24 per cent and independent Ben Smith with 21.67 per cent.
Mr Smith has to finish second for the Liberal Party to lose because Labor preferences will flow strongly to him.
But he would need preference flows of more than 90 per cent, which experts say will not happen.
The positive development comes after Liberal MP Keith Wolahan conceded defeat to Labor candidate Gabriel Ng in the eastern suburbs seat of Menzies on Thursday night.
Mr Wolahan, who had been hanging on after doing well in postal votes, trailed Mr Ng by 1302 votes at 8.30am on Friday.
“The votes are in, and I didn’t quite get there,” the first-term MP said.
Electoral Commissioner Jeff Pope said counting the largest number of ballot papers in history was a “mammoth undertaking” but it was making good progress.
“We have a large number of seats that are very close … but probably the more unprecedented element of this is actually the number of challenging two-candidate preferred, with the largest number of three-candidate preferred counts underway that we’ve ever done before, and also some really unpredictable preference flows,” Mr Pope said.
“It’s complex. We’re on it. We’re making good progress.”
Bendigo is held by Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan at a state level.
Calwell
Australian Electoral Commission experts say the situation in Calwell is “unprecedented”, with several of the 13 candidates receiving a sizeable portion of the vote.
The AEC expects it to be one of the most complex distribution of preferences it has ever done, with a result not expected until week five.
Labor candidate Basem Abdo is leading the primary votes, followed by Liberal candidate Usman Ghani and independent candidate Carly Moore.
The AEC decided not to proceed with a three-candidate preferred count and may have to wait for a distribution of preferences to determine the order of exclusion.
More than 74 per cent of the votes have been counted in the northwestern suburbs electorate.
Kooyong
Teal MP Dr Monique Ryan is on the cusp of winning a second term in Kooyong.
Dr Ryan is 724 votes ahead with some postal and absentee votes still to be counted.
But Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer is unlikely to catch up with the incumbent’s lead getting bigger on postal votes.
Almost 85 per cent of the votes in the affluent inner-Melbourne seat have been counted.
Dr Ryan leads Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer 50.35 – 49.65 on a two candidate preferred basis.
Originally published as Federal Election 2025: The Victorian seats that are still too close to call
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