The trans-Tasman bubble is just what we need with dire times ahead

SIMON BEVILACQUA: We should invite Jacinda Ardern to Tasmania to promote the Christchurch-Hobart link in the trans-Tasman bubble.

TASMANIAN businesses face dire economic fallout from the pandemic lockdown, especially those in tourism and education.

There is no chance of a return to business as usual in the short term. And, as we emerge from lockdown, the long-term economic recovery in Tasmania could look distinctly different to the pre-pandemic boom times.

There is potential for the state economy to be brought to its knees. Businesses are haemorrhaging. Double-digit unemployment is forecast.

If businesses naively wait for a return to normal, their chances of failing will rise. We need innovative strategic thinking and urgent action.

The economic and social recovery advisory council formed by Premier Peter Gutwein is a good first step.

Headed by ex-Treasury chief Don Challen, the council includes business leaders Samantha Hogg, Dale Elphinstone, Tim Gardner, Brett Torossi, Paul Ranson, UTAS vice-chancellor Rufus Black, community advocate Kym Goodes and Children’s Commissioner Leanne McLean.

It’s a good line-up.

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However, if this council dithers, or gets tangled in ideology, or wastes time trying to make long-term forecasts, or rests on platitudes, it will fail.

The council must act with prudent haste. The July reporting deadline is too far away. There should be an interim public report by the end of this month to be updated in June and finalised by July. The council must have resources to rapidly identify opportunities and alert the business community. The council’s task should be to identify practical measures to generate as much economic activity as cleverly as possible.

Mr Challen enjoyed a long, distinguished career overseeing Tasmania’s finances. The structural integrity of the state coffers is his legacy. However, his role on this council is to give practical advice as elementary as where the life jackets are and how we inflate them, and the workings of the winch to get the lifeboats in the water.

This crisis has no precedent. We know not how it will unfold, so the first priority is to ensure businesses can tread water long enough to ride out some of the volatility and uncertainty.

Amid the flotsam and jetsam, there will be growth potential. Fragmented global supply chains will present opportunities.

An example of this is the trans-Tasman bubble. It is good the State Government and the business lobby are on board but we need to get right in the face of New Zealand and its people.

The phones, video conferences and inboxes of Hobart Airport, Qantas, Air New Zealand, and NZ Government departments should be full of Tasmanian stakeholders eager for the Christchurch-Hobart link.

FILE - In this April 6, 2020 file photo, Air New Zealand planes sit idle on the tarmac at Christchurch Airport, New Zealand. Nervous travelers, spotty air service, health risks _ the battered global tourism industry is facing unprecedented uncertainty in the wake of the new coronavirus. Millions of workers are laid off or furloughed, and it will likely take years for the industry to get back to the strong demand it was seeing just six months ago. (AP Photo/Mark Baker, File)

There are some who fear the competition and have described the trans-Tasman bubble as a “one-sided deal” that will disadvantage Tasmania because NZ will be competing for tourists in the same market.

Such fear is understandable but not worth countenancing in the context of a tourism sector that is frozen solid, desperate for custom, and with no chance of international flights, other than from NZ, resuming in the short term.

Look at the numbers.

In a normal year about 1.6 million Kiwis holiday in Australia. Of those, about 20,000 come here. It’s small fry. But a far more relevant statistic in the pandemic’s wake is that NZ residents take more than three million overseas trips a year and the 1.4 million who go to places other than Australia will, in the short term, no longer have that choice.

Similarly, the nine million or so Australians who travel overseas to places other than NZ will have nowhere to go other than NZ or interstate.

So, with a trans-Tasman bubble in place, the pool of interstate and NZ tourists who could potentially visit here is actually much larger than in the pre-pandemic boom.

Contrary to what some say, NZ is a wealthy and prosperous nation, ranked seventh of 167 countries, and above Australia, on the respected Prosperity Index collated by Dubai-based global investment firm Legatum.

Of course, NZ won’t provide a China-size economic jab, but it could seat diners at tables and fill beds in hotels. So, let’s not look a gift horse in the mouth.

Competition will be fierce as suppliers scramble for their slice of a reduced economic pie.

Tasmania will inevitably lose potential tourists from NZ to interstate rivals, and potential interstate tourists to NZ. But what’s the alternative? Pop the bubble and rely on domestic travellers? That’s hardly clever or even possible.

We fight or fail.

We need businesses willing to hunt the hard ball and who thrive on competition, and governments who grasp the trans-Tasman bubble as a timely lifeline for the short-term survival of Tasmanian, Australian and New Zealand businesses in wretched times.

There will always be tourists who equate holidaying with poolside drinks in the blistering sun, but Dark Mofo has proved that many are seduced by the romance of cradling a warm mulled wine while standing by a glowing brazier and listening to music.

Or a very frosty dip, like participants of the nude solstice swim who brave the cold water at dawn at Long Beach, Sandy Bay. Picture: LUKE BOWDEN

I can’t bear tropical heat and I know Kiwis who feel the same.

We should be confident in the Tasmania brand — it is more potent and better understood beyond our shores than many here realise.

The Federal Government put up $38 million last year for Hobart’s runway to be extended for international flights and $82 million for border services at the airport. Let’s draw on that investment.

When Jacinda Ardern was elected NZ PM in 2017, there were whispers in Tasmanian Government ranks about inviting her to become the first sitting Kiwi PM to make a state visit, but the historic invitation failed to eventuate.

Let’s invite her on the first flight from Christchurch to Hobart in the trans-Tasman bubble. What a marketing coup and what a buoyant gesture in these troubled times.

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