YouGov poll shows Labor holds narrow lead in Tasmanian state election, hung parliament likely

Tasmanian electors have weighed in on how they intend to vote in this month’s state election, with new polling showing that another hung parliament is likely.

New polling has suggested that Labor holds a narrow lead over the Liberals ahead of the July 19 state election. Premier Jeremy Rockliff (left), however, is still considered the preferred Premier over Labor leader Dean Winter (right).

Labor is in the box seat to form government in Tasmania but the state is still projected to return another hung parliament at the July 19 election, according to new polling.

The YouGov survey – which is among the first polls of statewide voting intentions conducted since the election was called – was undertaken between June 12-24, with a sample size of 1287 people, distributed relatively evenly across the five electorates.

It found Labor had increased its primary vote to 34 per cent, while the Liberals were lagging at 31 per cent, and the Greens sat at 13 per cent.

Health is the number one election issue, according to Tasmanian voters, a YouGov poll has found. Picture: Richard Jupe

Support for independent candidates has shot up to 18 per cent

The Opposition’s narrow lead over the Liberals suggests the likelihood of a hung parliament, with Labor being in the best position to form a minority government.

However, Jeremy Rockliff remains Tasmanians’ preferred Premier at 43 per cent, while Labor leader Dean Winter is at 36 per cent.

YouGov director of public data Paul Smith said the polling showed the Tasmanian electorate was primarily concerned about essential services and equitable management of the state.

“Labor is on course to become the largest party in what will still be a hung parliament,” he said.

“With strong opposition to privatisation and clear support for health and public housing investment, this election is being shaped by fundamental public concerns.

“The final outcome will depend on how effectively each party connects with voters on the issues that matter most to them.”

Support for Labor is strongest in Franklin at 38 per cent and the Liberals retain a slim advantage in the Northern electorates of Bass and Braddon (36 and 35 per cent in each seat, respectively).

The major parties are neck and neck in Lyons at 34 per cent.

The issues deemed most important to voters were increased investment in health (52 per cent) and building more public housing (45 per cent).

One-third of Tasmanians oppose the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, while 22 per cent support it. Picture: Supplied

Other prominent issues voiced by electors were the reduction of state debt by taxing those who could afford to pay (41 per cent), opposition to privatisation and asset sales (34 per cent), and opposition to the proposed Macquarie Point stadium (33 per cent).

Anti-stadium sentiment was most pronounced in the Hobart-centric seat of Clark (35 per cent), where the project would be built.

Twenty-two per cent of voters supported the stadium, and 19 per cent backed cutting services to rein in state debt.