Tassie’s election shaping up into a win-or-die trying clash
The election nobody wanted is shaping up as a win-or-die clash between Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff and Labor’s Dean Winter. The Mercury’s political editor David Killick gives his analysis.
Tasmania
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The first votes in the 2025 Tasmanian state election will be cast in just 18 days.
The election nobody wanted is shaping up as a win-or-die clash between Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff and Labor’s Dean Winter.
The Liberal Party is backing Mr Rockliff to the hilt in the belief he is the only one who can win the party a record fifth consecutive term in office.
Mr Winter has staked his 14-month-old leadership on a bold – or some would say reckless – bid to seize power.
A short, sharp election campaign will force voters to choose between an embattled government or an opposition that has forced another early election.
Waiting in the wings are a host of minor party or independent candidates hoping to provide an alternative to the chaos.
This is the era of minority governments and power-sharing parliaments.
SHORT CAMPAIGN
This election will happen fast. There are just 36 days until polling day.
The increasing popularity of pre-poll voting will put pressure on the parties to unveil their major policy platforms within the next two weeks.
And more critically, they have just two weeks to find, vet and announce candidates.
None of the major parties are prepared to fight another state election so soon after the last one. Party finances are depleted and resources stretched, particularly after the recent federal campaign.
Voters, too are weary, having weathered relentless electioneering through three (or four in some electorates) state, federal and Legislative Council campaigns in the last 14 months.
The compressed timeline will give the major parties little time to develop nuanced campaign messages.
The election will be fought on budget management, on the need for stability, on privatisation, the Spirits and the stadium.
PATH TO GOVERNMENT
The Liberals currently hold 14 seats and need 18 for a majority government.
It is a big ask for a four-term government with a budget problem and a couple of major missteps in the headlines.
Labor’s task is even harder: having ruled out accepting the support of the Greens, the party needs to win eight more seats or enlist support from elsewhere.
Mr Winter wisely didn’t mention the M word, majority, once during his campaign-opening press conference of the campaign.
His party’s most likely path to government lies in gaining the support of independents post-election.
THE KEY ISSUES
The Liberals will fight on their record.
Mr Rockliff can be expected to hammer home the government’s pathway to surplus, to play up his leadership, to emphasise the benefit of experience and to appeal to stability.
The party’s prospects will be boosted by the presence of recently deposed Federal members Bridget Archer and Gavin Pearce, and Mr Rockliff is a big vote winner in Braddon.
The Liberals also have a far more polished, better funded and well-organised campaign machine, although it didn’t make the difference they’re hoped when they went down heavily to Labor in the recent federal election.
Labor will be banking on some of that sentiment persisting, but the party faces the real prospect of a voter backlash for bringing on the election just under three years early.
Mr Winter kicked off the party’s campaign on familiar notes: expect privatisation and the Spirits to be recurring themes throughout the next four weeks.
Labor will also highlight the state’s deteriorating budget position and public sector jobs cuts.
But that will give the party little room for major promises unless it can identify major savings on top of putting the state’s finances back in the black.
And it faces an uphill battle to build on the ten seats it currently holds with the loss of some of its top vote winners in the form of Rebecca White and Michelle O’Byrne. Former federal MP Brian Mitchell will make up some of the gap in Lyons.
MINOR PARTIES AND INDEPENDENTS
With the major parties in lock-step on the proposed AFL stadium, the Greens and independents will aim to capitalise on the sentiment of those opposed to the project, particularly in the state’s north and northwest, where it is strongest.
The party has signalled playing to its strengths on the environment – forests and fish – and may benefit from the anti-stadium vote, particularly in Braddon, where it has traditionally struggled.
Independents David O’Byrne, Craig Garland, and Kristie Johnston will reap the rewards of their profiles as sitting members, although the trio of former Lambie members may find it slightly more difficult without the backing of the senator’s familiar brand.
Expect the salmon industry to figure heavily in campaigning from independents in particular.
It is Mr Garland’s signature issue and his message will be amplified by Peter George, whose smart and well-funded campaign in the federal election saw him finish second in Franklin and may well inspire others keen to capitalise on a slice of public sentiment.
MONEY AND VOTES
This will be an election further complicated by the somewhat untimely introduction of Tasmania’s tougher electoral donation laws.
Midway through the campaign, from July 1, all registered parties and candidates contesting the election will need to record and disclose donations and gifts of $1000 or above.
Cash donations of more than $100 and any anonymous donations will be banned.
Expect a fundraising push early to sidestep the paperwork.
There are few certainties in Tasmanian politics, although it is a safe bet that parliament will not be back for some time.
Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system requires candidates to achieve 12.4 per cent of the vote to secure a quota.
The count for the final seats in each electorate can take some time.
If no party manages to gain a majority, there may be a period of further uncertainty as leaders attempt to negotiate deals to shore up support.
Ministers then need to be sworn in and parliament reconvened.
It is a safe bet that parliament will not sit again until late August or even early September.
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