Search on for Peter Gutwein’s replacement as Premier
The job of Tasmanian Premier is Jeremy Rockliff’s – if he wants it. But does he? Here’s the rundown of the contenders>>>
Tasmania
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The job of Tasmanian Premier is Jeremy Rockliff’s – if he wants it.
However, Liberal sources say if Mr Rockliff, 52, the current deputy Premier, does not put his hand up for the top job it is likely Michael Ferguson,48 will be elected unopposed.
The architect of the Liberals’ return to government in 2014 and chief of staff to former Premier Will Hodgman, Brad Stansfield, said he could not see anyone challenging Mr Rockliff.
“If he wants it the job is his, but he needs to make that decision and to be in it for the long haul until the next election,” Mr Stansfield said.
“If he does not stand and Michael Ferguson becomes leader, it would be wise for Jeremy to stay as deputy to give the government stability and continuity.”
Liberal sources say that Mr Rockliff, who has been the member for Braddon for 20 years was keen to leave politics before Will Hodgman announced his resignation in January 2020 but stayed to support Peter Gutwein.
There has been renewed speculation he wanted to quit after Easter this year but felt he had to stay when Sarah Courtney, once also touted as a future Premier, resigned this year.
“Even among the more conservatives, Jeremy is seen as a lot more palatable than Michael,” one source said.
“He would be more like Will Hodgman and be consultative in Cabinet.
“Michael would be more like Peter ‘you do it my way or the highway’.”
On the parliamentary numbers, it would seem the ambitious Mr Ferguson would have the numbers to replace Mr Gutwein but Mr Rockliff is seen as more deserving and popular.
Mr Ferguson and Attorney-General Elise Archer stood on a joint ticket to replace Mr Hodgman but withdrew at the 11th hour when they did not have the numbers.
Both are conservative and have been under fire for groaning when Labor leader Rebecca White asked a question in Parliament on behalf of Tiffany Skeggs, a victim survivor of paedophile nurse James Geoffrey Griffin.
Tasmanian political scientist Professor Richard Herr says Ms Archer should be considered along with Mr Rockliff and Mr Ferguson.
“All three have the experience to be Premier but there is this notion that a woman has to work harder than a man to even be considered,” Prof Herr said.
“Jeremy Rockliff is easily the most well positioned to be Premier because he has an air of competence and amiability and hasn’t ruffled feathers.
“But it’s not a people’s choice, it’s the (Liberal) party’s choice.”
Liberal Senator Eric Abetz thanked Mr Gutwein for his “service in difficult times” and for steering the Liberals to government.
“As shadow Treasurer he produced alternative budgets that Labor could not lay a glove on. He has done a fantastic job taking Tasmania from recession to the stand out State.”
On the future leadership Senator Abetz was coy: “There is an embarrassing wealth of riches from which the state Parliamentary Liberal Party can choose.”
Even Labor MPs concede that Mr Rockliff is popular and has not been embroiled in any scandals.
“He’s a nice bloke, he’s clean and he’s decent.”
Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said Mr Ferguson seemed to be an obvious contender.
“He withdrew because he clearly did not have the numbers,” he said.
“Elise Archer and Guy Barnett are both experienced.
“Jeremy Rockliff would probably get it if he wanted but he didn’t want it last time and might not want it this time.”
“Sarah Courtney was a possible contender but she is gone too, there’s a little bit of a shortage of obvious moderate options.”
The ultimate decision on who will be the next Premier rests with the 12 members in the House of Assembly and four in the Legislative Council.
Market open on next premier
A betting market has already opened on who will be Tasmania’s next Premier, with some intriguing odds among the leading contenders.
Following Peter Gutwein’s shock resignation Monday afternoon, Sportsbet opened a market within the hour on who will take charge next.
Leading the charge is Michael Ferguson, who opens the market at $1.70, with Deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff close behind at $2.10.
Roger Jaensch ($7.50), Elise Archer ($8), and Guy Barnett ($14) round out the market.
“In probably one of the busiest weeks of Australian politics, Peter Gutwein dropped a bombshell,” Sportsbet’s Simon Legg said.
“The fight for his replacement looks to be between Jeremy Rockliff and Michael Ferguson, but let’s see who has the numbers.”
Next Leader After Peter Gutwein
$1.70 Michael Ferguson
$2.10 Jeremy Rockliff
$7.50 Roger Jaensch
$8.00 Elise Archer
$14 Guy Barnett
Others quoted
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