Richard Colbeck, Lisa Singh and Nick McKim battle for Senate spots

The  fate of several well-known Tasmanian senators will be determined by about 114,000 votes yet to be counted from Saturday’s poll.

Liberal senator Richard Colbeck.

The  fate of several well-known Tasmanian senators will be determined by about 114,000 votes yet to be counted from Saturday’s poll.

The outcome of the Senate race in Tasmania will not start to become clearer until tomorrow afternoon when the processing of below-the-line ballots begins.

Seventy per cent of Tasmanians voted above the line for the Senate on polling day and their first-preference votes have been tallied by the Australian Electoral Commission.

A preliminary allocation of those first preference ballots suggests four Senate seats are likely to be secured by each of the Labor and the Liberal parties, and one each by Jacqui Lambie and the Greens.

Such a result would point to the return of Labor’s Anne Urquhart, Helen Polley, Carol Brown and Catryna Bilyk.

Similarly, the Liberal ticket of Eric Abetz, Stephen Parry, Jonathon Duniam and David Bushby would be returned, as would Green Peter Whish-­Wilson and Senator Lambie.

However, the final result lies in the uncounted below-the-line votes, and in the large numbers of absentee, interstate, postal and other declaration votes, which were being processed yesterday.

Today will be spent verifying postal votes, although the last of these may arrive up to 13 days past polling day.

Labor senator Lisa Singh.

There was no update to the Senate figures from election night yesterday — so there are no ­answers to the questions burning on the lips of poll watchers everywhere: what will happen to Green Nick McKim, Liberal Richard Colbeck and Labor’s Lisa Singh?

The fate of the final two Tasmanian Senate seats is expected to be a battle between Liberal, Labor and the Greens.

Election analyst Kevin Bonham said Senator Singh had recorded a strong personal vote.

“Samples kindly reported to me by scrutineers from five Greater Hobart area booths [two in Denison and two in Franklin] have the below the line votes for Lisa Singh at between 8 per cent and 17 per cent,” he wrote in a blog post.

Senator McKim’s fate is likely to be determined by the flow of preferences from minor party candidates.

Yesterday he was celebrating an improved vote for his party nationally, but patiently awaiting the outcome of his own bid for re-election.

“We’re pleased with a solid swing to us in Tasmania’s House of Representatives seats, which is a credit to our candidates and everyone who worked on our campaign,” he said.

“Nationally our vote is growing, and we’re seeing the ongoing erosion of the political duopoly in our country.

“The Tasmanian Liberals will be smarting today, but instead of blaming everyone else Senator Abetz needs to step up and take responsibility for his major role.

“We are proud of our campaign. We stood up for our values, and for issues that really matter to many Tasmanians. like climate change, renewable energy and a compassionate approach to people seeking asylum.

“It will obviously take some time before the final Senate seats in Tasmania are clear.”