Mr Rockliff is faced with a difficult choice about whether his government, or his premiership, is untenable

“If you cannot govern yourselves, you cannot govern the state.” It’s a Guy Barnett line, directed at Labor, back from the halcyon days of <cough> strong, stable, majority government in <checks notes> October. It has aged like warm milk. DAVID KILLICK WRITES >

Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Deputy Premier Michael Ferguson in Launceston. Picture: Patrick Gee

“If you cannot govern yourselves, you cannot govern the state.” It’s a Guy Barnett line, directed at Labor, back from the halcyon days of <cough> strong, stable, majority government in <checks notes> October. It has aged like warm milk.

The departure of MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker must surely be as close to a mortal blow for the Rockliff government as it is possible to imagine.

The government has lost six MPs, including a premier, just halfway through its term. Things were hard enough when they had 13 out of 25 seats.

With just 11 MPs it does not speak to a stable and predictable future.

Every contested vote will require a negotiation with the new independents, whose support on matters of confidence and supply appears somewhat conditional.

Their departure also leaves the government desperately short of backbenchers for the busy work of parliament, the loyal foot soldiers who chair or serve on committees and ask the Dorothy Dixers and chip in with the odd “hear hear” when the premier is speaking.

Surely things cannot continue like this for long.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Deputy Premier Michael Ferguson speaking in Launceston on May 12, 2023 after the resignation of MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker. Picture: Patrick Gee

Mr Rockliff is faced with a difficult choice about whether his government, or his premiership, is untenable. He has ruled out an early election. He says he will fight on. “Tis but a flesh wound,” cried the Black Knight. Perhaps a week of reflection might change his mind.

None of the parties are ready to go to the polls. An election will deliver a 35-seat chamber, which will require money and candidates that nobody has in ready supply and which will deliver an uncertain result.

Perhaps another leader might be able to lure the prodigal MPs back to the fold.

Mr Ferguson says Mr Rockliff has his full support, but the Liberals have a couple of reserves in Braddon should Mr Rockliff decide to return to the farm.

And what now of the team and the stadium? Surely now that a majority of the parliament have expressed their concerns a question mark must hang over the future of the entire plan.

The departure of Mrs Alexander and Mr Tucker lays bare the schism within the Liberals, between moderates and conservatives, each bloc concerned about the direction of the party.

John Tucker, member for Lyons and Lara Alexander, member for Bass, in Launceston. Both members of the Tasmanian parliament have now resigned as Liberal sitting members. Picture: Patrick Gee

There is more. Mrs Alexander was known to have issues with laws to ban gay conversion and mentioned Mr Rockliff’s support for the proposed Aboriginal Voice to Parliament.

Mr Tucker mentioned that he had been overlooked for ministerial positions.

But to take their reasoning at face value, there is some irony in the fact that even Liberal MPs have joined the ever-growing chorus that the government is not transparent enough.

How deep within the inner sanctum must a person venture before the secrets of the stadium deal and Marinus Link are revealed?

Parliament doesn’t sit for a week. There is time for many things; the quiet contemplation of numbers, the consideration of options, the testing of allegiances, the offer of an olive branch, and time with the family.

The carnival resumes in ten days. Who would dare predict what surprises lie in store for we long-suffering citizens of this fractious isle?