David Killick analysis: Weighing up the benefits of an election against a hostile return to parliament

Ten years of Tasmanian Liberal Party’s rule is looming large. However, Premier Jeremy Rockliff faces a tough decision ahead of the anniversary, writes David Killick.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff at the official opening of Polyfoam's new Westbury production facility. Picture: Stephanie Dalton

The received wisdom in politics is that it is folly for a government to surrender power a moment earlier than absolutely necessary.

The risk of being consigned to the opposition benches is a prospect few government politicians take lightly.

But for the minority Liberals, counting down the days to a decade in power, returning to a hostile parliament might be an even less appealing prospect.

Aside from a full dance card of festering issues, the instability inherent in the shifting demands of independent John Tucker means the parliamentary year ahead does not look like being rewarding or enjoyable for the Premier.

There remain open questions about the handling of the Commission of Inquiry and ongoing crises in health, housing, the ambulance service racing and racing.

The Attorney-General may have to front parliament’s Privileges Committee and Mr Rockliff and his department head face questions over their candour about public servants dodging blame from the Commission.

Newly elected Premier Will Hodgman arriving at the tally room in Hobart, Saturday, March 15, 2014. (AAP Image/Rob Blakers)

Ultimatums are flying back and forth. The business community is fretting about confidence.

The temptation to press the reset button must be well-nigh irresistible.

In many ways, it is astonishing the government has lasted this long after being plunged into the minority when the members for Bass and Lyons defected last May.

Mr Rockliff has done well to hang on this long. Despite his admirable perseverance, 2023 was a most difficult year for him and 2024 will be harder. He looks tired. His government looks tired.

As the ten-year anniversary looms, there is much to ponder. Have the Liberals under three premiers delivered on the promises of 2014? Have Labor shown themselves ready to govern? Are independent and minor party candidates the way ahead?

Mr Rockliff faces a difficult decision. But so too do voters, should we return to the polls.