CommSec report highlights Tassie’s weak population growth as worst in nation

The latest CommSec State of the States report is a mixed bag for Tasmania. Check out the positives and negatives.

CommSec senior economist Ryan Felsman

Despite big job losses, Tasmania has climbed to fifth spot in the latest CommSec State of the States report ranking economic performance but the state’s population growth is again the weakest in the country.

The state’s population growth of just 0.38 per cent was the weakest in eight years and well behind the Northern Territory which grew 0.80 per cent and Western Australia which had the biggest growth of 3.11 per cent.

Tasmania ranked first on only indicator – equipment spending – which was 36.4 per cent above the decade average.

For the first time in 10 years, WA took spot ahead of South Australia and Queensland.

CommSec senior economist Ryan Felsman. Picture: Supplied.

Chief CommSec economist Ryan Felsman said the rankings highlighted a two-speed economy with the resource rich states the strongest performers.

“Tasmania’s population growth of just 0.4 per cent over the year to March was the weakest nationally, and that’s driven by continued net outflows of people to other states and territories, so that is weighing on economic activity in Tasmania, along with higher interest rates,” he said.

“Almost 6000 jobs have been lost over the year to September.

“It’s been a bit of an even split between Hobart and regional Tasmania, though the West and northwest stands out as there’s been a loss of 2600 positions in that region.”

Mr Felsman said dwelling investment had “contracted significantly” over the past financial year, driven by weaker spending on construction of new dwellings and renovations and extensions of existing dwellings.

“That’s been accompanied by falling dwelling approvals and commitment commencements, leaving Tasmania with a relatively soft pipeline of residential building activity.

“So it has seen overall Tasmanian residential building down almost 20 per cent over the year to June so that’s reflected in the weaker housing market.”

A bright spot for Tasmania, he said, was growth in business investment.

Not surprisingly the government and opposition took different views of the report.

Tasmanian Treasurer Guy Barnett Picture: Stephanie Dalton

Treasurer Guy Barnett said it showed Tasmania was leading the nation on equipment investment, was third on construction, and has the highest wage and retail trade growth in the nation.

But Labor’s treasury spokesman Josh Willie said the report highlighted Tasmania’s economy was flatlining and the state’s economic performance was the worst in Australia on several metrics.

Mr Barnett said: “It is clear the 2024-25 budget is making life more affordable for Tasmanians, with CommSec revealing the State recorded the lowest Consumer Price Index.”

“Not only have more than 47,000 jobs been created under our watch, Tasmania also has the strongest wages growth in the country.

“Under the government our population has boomed – having reached the interim population target of 570,000 people by 2030, eight years early.

“There is confidence in the Tasmanian economy, and this report demonstrates that Tasmanian businesses are continuing to invest and Tasmanian consumers are continuing spend despite the tough economic conditions nationally.”

Mr Willie said the report again identified population growth as a “key weakness for the Tasmanian economy”.

“Sadly, the people leaving are working age, taxpaying Tasmanians that we need participating in our economy,” he said.

“With 6000 jobs lost since Premier Rockliff’s leadership sent his government into minority, a complete budget disaster, sweeping public sector job cuts and an economic situation that only looks to be getting worse, our economy can’t afford a government that is tired and out of ideas.”