Don’t fall for the old major projects trap

Tourism and education will be slow to recover, if at all, writes SIMON BEVILACQUA

REALITY: A prudent government would focus on the job at hand, wait for the balls to land, sniff the breeze, then pounce on opportunities. Illustration: Terry Pontikos

RECKLESS spending and big “devil may care” developments are the last things Tasmania needs in the face of possibly the most catastrophic global economic meltdown in 100 years.

Most economists predict the Federal Government’s urgent response to COVID-19 will steer the Australian economy into recession, and some less optimistic analysts fear the global shutdown could cause widespread economic depression here and abroad.

Meanwhile, the Property Council of Australia and state Planning Minister are pushing big development on our small island as a panacea for this global economic nightmare. Their strategy is imprudent, makes no economic sense and could litter the state with white elephants.

Property council director Brian Wightman wants to get rid of “regulatory handbrakes” and “red tape” and simplify planning. “There is also an opportunity to bring forward infrastructure projects that benefit the state in employment, project readiness and economic recovery,” Mr Wightman said.

Tasmanian Planning Minister Roger Jaensch is in lock-step, working to ensure the “pipeline of projects and investment remains full and disruption is minimised”.

Mr Jaensch is pursuing a Major Projects Bill, a review of the Tasmanian Planning Commission, and a tourism master plan for the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, all of which are driven by a rabid pro-development ideology that dismisses regulation designed to protect neighbours, communities, heritage, wildlife and the environment as mere red tape.

Readers have flooded the Mercury with letters of concern at this myopic, ideologically- driven raid on our legislation.

Reader Steve Barrett from Dolphin Sands (Letters, April 10) wrote, quite reasonably, that, “it would be more prudent to concentrate on small business recovery, where the majority of our workforce are involved, and fairly debate this contentious issue when public opinion can be accurately gauged”. Fair point.

Other readers’ letters reveal fierce opposition to projects such as Cambria Green; CBD skyscrapers; cable cars on Mt Wellington, Mt Roland and Cataract Gorge; Westbury prison; developments in national parks and the World Heritage Area; and the expansion of salmon farming.

Yet it is these contentious projects the Planning Minister is pushing by rewriting laws and redesigning processes so as to accommodate them. This ideological sortie is premised on the unlikely eventuality that this lockdown is short and sharp and that in the next few months all the economy will need is a jar of petrol in the carburettor and, after a smoky splutter and bang, it will fire back up, business as usual.

CHANGES EVERYTHING: Coronavirus. Computer artwork ©Science Photo Library

But, even if Tasmania is coronavirus-free before the end of the year, the best we can hope for are small mercies; a return of personal freedom so we can go back to work together, enjoy a restaurant meal and mingle. Businesses that enable this return to normal may thrive. Some exports also may get a boost as one of the first economies is freed from social isolation.

But the two flagship sectors that were driving Tasmania’s economic growth prior to the pandemic — tourism and education — are unlikely to re-emerge unscathed. A recent Lowy Institute report that was very positive about how quickly Australia’s economy could rebound was warily cautious about tourism and education, saying they “will be slow to recover because both industries involve air travel and group activity” and that “their full recovery probably awaits not only a vaccine but its wide availability”.

No country or state will resume international flights for tourists and students without definitive evidence it will not cause new outbreaks. It is conceivable, even probable, that societies will emerge from lockdown at different rates, creating safe travel quadrants that will require virus-free certification, and also that some nations will be floored by return bouts of the contagion.

A vaccine is being developed, but some say it won’t be ready for 12 to 18 months. The less optimistic point to the fact that after decades of research there is still no vaccine on the horizon for the common cold. It’s all uncertain and unpredictable.

So, the massive spending by tourists and students that was attracting investment in huge projects such as hotels, resorts, skyscrapers and cable cars in Tasmania is unlikely to return any time soon, and there is no guarantee it will reach pre-virus highs in the near future.

Those days are over. Global supply chains and distribution networks are a mess and our nation is now heavily in debt.

The rusted-on conviction of those who want to keep chasing major projects that were on the drawing board prior to the pandemic is bereft of sound reasoning and based in old-school dogma, which is a dangerous anachronism in unprecedented times that will require much more innovation and adaptability from our political, business and community leaders.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said this week, as his conservative government passed a $130 billion spending package that will burden the nation with more debt than any Labor government in history ever did, it is time to “leave ideology at the door”.

Sage words, brave deeds.

Opportunities will arise for Tasmania — a small, modern, technologically advanced state with an educated populace, relatively skilled workforce and bountiful resources — to capitalise on a possible early eradication of the virus on the island and to go to the aid of regional neighbours in need.

A prudent Tasmanian government would focus on the difficult job at hand (after all, Tasmanians are still dying), wait for some of the balls in the air to land, get a sniff of the breeze, and be ready to pounce on any opportunities with creativity and flexibility.

Some businesses will go under and some will fight tooth and nail to stay afloat. Those that survive the struggle may discover they have fewer competitors and can blossom in the world after the virus. Business models will be recast.

There are many unknowns. Human services may demand development ahead of tourism infrastructure. We may need to be more self-sufficient as an island. Online education may be the future. UTAS as we know it may go under. Cruise ship brands may not recover.

Chinese citizens may lose confidence in travel and stay home; they may feel insecure travelling in the free world for many years to come — or they may see Tasmania as one of the few safe places on the planet to tour and study.

The possibilities for Tasmania’s future are myriad, the uncertainties perplexing.

The only thing we can say for sure is the pre-COVID-19 world is over, and the sooner we accept that difficult but unavoidable reality the quicker we can start to rebuild.