Exclusive poll: Just 10pc of voters approve of likely Liberal leader Ashton Hurn

The Liberals’ likely new leader Ashton Hurn is facing an electoral nightmare as exclusive polling shows the party could be wiped out at the state election.

Little-known likely Liberal leader Ashton Hurn is facing a near-insurmountable task to haul her devastated party back from an electoral wipe-out within weeks, an exclusive opinion poll reveals.

Ms Hurn is all-but certain to be installed as Liberal leader at a party room meeting on Monday morning, after Vincent Tarzia spectacularly quit on Friday.

But she will struggle to hold her own seat at next March’s state election, a Fox & Hedgehog poll reveals, with dismal Liberal primary support of just 21 per cent and the party trailing a dominant Labor government 61-39 per cent in two-party preferred stakes.

Ashton Hurn is facing a near-insurmountable task to haul her devastated party back from an electoral wipe-out. Picture: Keryn Stevens

In ominous findings ahead of the leadership switch, Ms Hurn is unknown to almost half of the electorate and has the second-lowest approval rating, 10 per cent, of a number of political figures and groups.

The Liberal primary support is identical to a YouGov poll published by The Advertiser in June, which was forecast to leave the Liberals with just two seats in the 47-seat lower house.

Adding to Liberal alarm, One Nation’s primary support has surged to 13 per cent – up from 7 per cent in the YouGov poll and 3 per cent at the 2022 state election.

Explore the voter sentiment survey here

But Fox & Hedgehog founder Michael Horner, who completed fieldwork for the self-initiated poll of 1000 people on Friday, warned “no seat is safe” for the Liberals at the March 21 election.

“With 15 weeks to go, the Liberals have read the writing on the wall. Their Adelaide vote has collapsed, leaving the party staring down a metropolitan wipe-out,” he said.

“Even outside Adelaide, the party is polling less than a quarter of the vote. No seat is safe.”

The Liberals are even being trounced in regional South Australia by Labor – 33 per cent to 24 per cent in primary support and 56-44 in two-party preferred.

Vincent Tarzia spectacularly quit on Friday. Picture: NewsWire / Ben Clark

Among the crucial 18-34 age group, the Greens are outpolling the Liberals, with 27 per cent primary support compared to a paltry 10 per cent.

Conducted from November 24 to December 5, the poll outlines the huge task ahead of Ms Hurn simply to build a public profile.

According to approval ratings for a number of political figures and parties, 49 per cent of respondents say they have never heard of her.

Ms Hurn’s approval rating was just 10 per cent, 29 per cent were neutral/unsure and 12 per cent disapproved, leaving a net approval rating of -2.

Aligned to the Liberals’ moderate group, Ms Hurn’s approval ratings almost mirror those of rival conservative spearhead Senator Alex Antic (8 per cent approval, 31 per cent neutral/unsure, 48 per cent unknown, 13 per cent disapprove).

Taken before Mr Tarzia’s shock resignation on Friday, the leader satisfaction ratings show Premier Peter Malinauskas trouncing him as preferred premier, 54 per cent to just 18 per cent for the outgoing Liberal leader – 28 per cent were neutral/unsure.

Mr Malinauskas had a net approval rating of +32 per cent, including 51 per cent approving and 19 per cent disapproving of his performance.

By contrast, Mr Tarzia’s net approval rating was -8, with 17 per cent approving of his performance and 25 per cent disapproval.

Mr Malinauskas had a net approval rating of +32 per cent and has been described as a “political athlete.” Picture: Roy VanDerVegt

“Peter Malinauskas is a political athlete. In the race for South Australia, he’s Usain Bolt, while the Liberals are still selecting who to send to the starting blocks,” Mr Horner said.

“A new leader gifts the Liberals a small moment of attention, but they’ll need to convert it before voters move on.

“Ashton Hurn is a blank canvas to most South Australians. If she steps up to the leadership, the Liberals will need to start painting, fast.

“Hurn enters the frame with low negatives, but also low recognition. The danger for the Liberals is simple: if they choose her and don’t define her, Labor will.”

Ratings for key political figures/groups included 10 per cent approval for Ms Hurn and federal Trade Minister Don Farrell, 16 per cent for federal Liberal leader Sussan Ley, 33 per cent for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 31 per cent for Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong, 38 per cent for One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, 43 per cent for the SA Labor Party and 25 per cent for the SA Liberal Party.

The poll shows a slight retreat in Labor’s primary support since the June YouGov poll, from 48 per cent to 41 per cent, to be almost identical to the 40 per cent at the 2022 election.

Labor held a record 67 per cent to 33 per cent lead over the Liberals in the YouGov poll’s two-party preferred stakes, compared to 61-39 for the Fox & Hedgehog poll and 55-45 at the 2022 election landslide victory.

Originally published as Exclusive poll: Just 10pc of voters approve of likely Liberal leader Ashton Hurn