Reality check as Qld coal-fired power assets to close sooner

Coal-fired power stations are set to close sooner, and Queensland will need hydro-electric capacity 30 times that of one of its biggest stations before they do.

Coal generators are likely to shut sooner and Queensland will need big-scale pumped hydro equivalent to 30 times what is available at Wivenhoe power station before they do, the energy regulator is warning.

It is revealed in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s 30-year road map to be released today, which predicted the last coal generators could shut as early as 2040.

Currently the last coal-fired power station, Queensland’s Millmeran, is scheduled to wind up in 2051.

Callide coal-fired power stations B and C. Picture: Andrew Thorpe

Just one Queensland coal-fired power station is currently scheduled to close before 2030 – Callide B in 2028 – while Gladstone and Tarong are forecast to shut down in 2035-36 and Stanwell, Kogan Creek and Yabulu are not due to close until the 2040s.

Under the most likely scenario to reach net zero by 2050 modelled by AEMO “all coal capacity could close as early as 2040”.

“If closures can be co-ordinated with adequate notice, then technical and market challenges may be managed. If they are not, the risk of price and reliability impacts on consumers quickly rises,” the road map warned.

“Deep storage”, like pumped-hydro projects the size of Snowy 2.0, will be needed to keep the lights on reliably once the state’s coal generators are shut down.

“It may be prudent for early investment in deep storage across the (national energy market), to enable improved resilience to earlier coal closures or project commissioning delays,” the AEMO report stated.

It stated that when all Queensland coal capacity retired, another 6GW of deep storage would be needed to complement 10GW of smaller battery storage, the “equivalent to 30 times the existing Wivenhoe power station”.

Wivenhoe Power Station. Picture: Contributed

AEMO chief executive officer Daniel Westerman said the road map was developed to help manage the “complex, rapid and irreversible energy transformation”.

“To maintain a secure, reliable and affordable electricity supply for consumers through this transition to 2050, investment is required for a nine-fold increase in grid-scale wind and solar capacity, triple the firming capacity (dispatchable storage, hydro and gas-fired generation) and a near five-fold increase in distributed solar,” he said.

There will also need to be almost $4.8 billion in investment in power network, supply and transmission upgrades needed from far north to southern Queensland as part of the transition to a renewable electricity market.

This includes $408 million for Gladstone Grid Reinforcement, $1.2 billion for network upgrades between Cairns and Townsville to increase capacity of the Far North Queensland renewable energy zone and $1.16 billion for a network capacity expansion across the Darling Downs renewable energy zone.

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