Tasmanian election analyst Kevin Bonham predicts unhappy ending as two Liberal backbenchers quit

Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham has described the defection of two Liberal MPs to the crossbenches as a “catastrophe”.

The Tasmanian Liberal government has slid into minority amid the resignation of two backbenchers, Lara Alexander and John Tucker. Picture: Jon Tuxworth

Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham has described the defection of two Liberal MPs to the crossbenches as a “catastrophe”.

“It’s just terrible, it’s a catastrophe and there’s no way it ends well,” Dr Bonham said.

“The Liberals have been so good about not making public their fights between the conservatives and the moderates.

“For nine years in government the social progressives and conservatives have got on together despite their differences.

“It seems (Premier) Jeremy Rockliff is way too left for some of them and not able to hold the ship.”

Political analyst Kevin Bonham has predicted an unhappy ending in relation to the defection of two Liberal MPs to the crossbenches. Picture: Supplied.

Neither Lara Alexander or John Tucker were big vote getters, he said with Ms Alexander only receiving 511 votes when she stood before being elected on a recount to fill Education Minister Sarah Courtney’s spot after she quit.

He said Mr Tucker did not get a big primary vote in Lyons relying on preferences to get elected.

“It’s hard to say whether it’s just about the stadium or a pretext for other things,” Dr Bonham said.

As the Liberal Party in other states, including Victoria and New South Wales have been hit by infighting, he said the situation was worse in Tasmania now.

“It is much worse here because the party is in government, in Victoria they are in opposition,” he said.

Asked about the prospect of an early election or a challenge to Mr Rockliff by his deputy Michael Ferguson Dr Bonham said it would depend how the minority government fared.

“I just don’t know whether an election is months or years away.

“It’s possible this could lead to an early election but I think they will try to avoid that because they’d get smashed.”