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Tasmania votes: Rolling coverage of the Federal Election results

LABOR has booted the Three Amigos out of Bass, Braddon and Lyons, with Andrew Wilkie claiming victory in Denison and Julie Collins retaining Franklin.

STAFF WRITERS
11 min read
July 2, 2016 - 11:06PM
Sunday Tasmanian
Outside a polling station at Burnie, in the electorate of Braddon, this morning. Picture: CHRIS KIDD
Outside a polling station at Burnie, in the electorate of Braddon, this morning. Picture: CHRIS KIDD

11.15pm: ABC election expert Antony Green says the election results won’t be known tonight.

“At this stage the modelling projection, the modelling we’re doing has the government on 75 seats which isn’t a majority. They may or may not get it. At the moment on the numbers I’m seeing it’s not clear.”

State of play: Coalition 71; Labor 68; Greens 1; Independent 4; Not determined 6.

Two-party preferred vote (8 million votes counted): Coalition 49.56%; Labor 50.44%; 3.3% swing against the Coalition.

State swings against the Government: NSW 3.5%; Victoria 1.8%; Queensland 2.6%; Western Australia 2%; South Australia 3.9%; Tasmania 8.8%.

Labor picks up Coalition seats: Eden-Monaro, Macarthur, Macquarie, Lindsay (NSW); Longman, Herbert (QLD); Bass, Braddon, Lyons (TAS); Solomon (NT); Hindmarsh (SA); Burt (WA).

Coalition on track to pick up Labor seat: Chisholm (VIC).

Nick Xenophon Team picks up: Mayo (SA) from the Coalition.

Tight contests: Forde, Petrie, Capricornia QLD); Gilmore (NSW); Batman, Dunkley, Melbourne Ports (VIC); Cowan (WA).

11.06pm: Tasmanian Greens Senator Nick McKim said he believed he would retain his spot.

“A great swing to us around the country because people are sick and tired of politics as usual and they want a new way to do politics. In Tasmania, good swings to us in the House of Representatives,” he said.

He said the national result was “a credit to Richard Di Natalie’s leadership”.

10.42pm: Liberal Senator Eric Abetz has blamed a “dirty tricks” campaign on Labor’s part for turning Tasmanian voters against the Liberal Party.

“There were national issues like the MediScare campaign by Labor, dishonest, untruthful, full of falsehoods and unfortunately that cut through and that was pretty obvious at the polling booths and I think that was the major issue,” he said.

“There were the dishonest campaigns against Andrew Nikolic by GetUp!, the union movement came in from the mainland pretending to be locals. We will be back, we have to be back.

“We thought it would be tight but in relation to how tight it would be it’s always a bit of guess and these things do finally show themselves on election night.”

10.36pm: Returned Franklin Labor MP Julie Collins said she was overwhelmed by the result.

“I think Tasmanians are saying we clearly have the better plan,” she said.

“I think what it shows voters are rejecting the cuts to health and education under the Liberal Government. We’ve seen 4000 jobs lost in Tasmania since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, and Tasmanians want a more positive future.

“I’m thrilled I’m no longer the only Labor MP for Tasmania.”

10.34pm: New Labor Lyons member Brian Mitchell received a rock star welcome when he arrived at the Waratah Hotel in North Hobart for the Labor election night party.

Mr Mitchell said it was an enormous privilege to be elected.

He said education, jobs, protecting Medicare and working towards a fairer society would be among his priorities.

“The number one issue in this electorate is Medicare and fairness,” he said.

Mr Mitchell said he had a good feeling about the election, but was not expecting the extent of the swing to Labor in Tasmania.

“To see it blow out like this is beyond my wildest expectations,” he said.

10.02pm: Senator Lisa Singh has spent election night at her office with friends, family and supporters. It’s too early to know her fate, but says she’s heartened by the support shown by the community and by the number of people apparently voting below the line.

“I’ve been encouraged all the way through this campaign by the number of people telling me they were going to vote below the line. It’s a really exciting night for Labor in Tasmania.”

9.36pm: Justine Keay: “This is a win for the ordinary North-West and West Coast residents.

“Our message about the importance of health, jobs and education has obviously resonated with ordinary people.

“We were getting good feedback and dared to dream but could not take that on face value. We thought it would be a tight result but that we would fail to get over the line.

“To find out this early and this resoundingly is a total shock.”

9.35pm: The mood was much more sombre at the Burnie Surf Club where Brett Whiteley’s supporters were gathered.

The media was asked to stay outside to wait for Mr Whiteley to appear.

9.33pm: In Braddon the mood was one of shock as it became clear by 8pm that Justine Keay had ousted sitting MP Brett Whiteley.

Some pundits were speculating it was less a vote for Labor but more a turn in sentiment against Tasmania’s three sitting Liberals.

Ms Keay, who did not have a high profile coming into the campaign, was overwhelmed at the Burnie Harness Clubrooms as she was hugged by supporters and slowly acknowledged she looked like winning a seat in her first tilt at Federal politics.

Her three children asked to go home but it looked like her campaign team would be celebrating.

9.30pm: Aaand Braddon has been called by Kevin Bonham for Labor’s Justine Keay so that’s all three marginal seats fallen to Labor tonight.

9.08pm: There are a few bigger polling places in Burnie and Devonport that are yet to return two candidate preferred results, as well as a couple in Queenstown. Braddon will be the last Tasmanian electorate to be called. Labor is looking comfortable with a 5.08 per cent swing to candidate Justine Keay after 67 per cent of votes counted.

8.56pm: Kevin Bonham has just called Lyons for Labor’s Brian Mitchell. That’s two amigos who have lost seats in Tasmania so far tonight, with Braddon still not called.

Follow his live blog here

8.43pm: The swing against the Liberals in Lyons has pushed out to 3.85 per cent with more than 60 per cent of votes counted. Labor’s Brian Mitchell looks to be in a pretty comfortable position to take the seat with just 12 polling places yet to return their results.

8.37pm: Kevin Bonham says while it is still early in the Senate race with only a few per cent of the vote counted, it looks as if the Liberals and Labor will win four seats each in Tasmania, Greens and Lambie one each, with two left to fight over. There is a surprise surge for One Nation with 0.42 of a quota.

8.26pm: Incumbent independent MP Andrew Wilkie has claimed victory in the Tasmanian metropolitan seat of Denison. With about 35 per cent of the vote counted, the Hobart-based politician held a two-party preferred result of more than 68 per cent.

“There has been a solid swing to me ... So I’m in a position to claim victory,” Mr Wilkie told reporters, citing dissatisfaction among the electorate for his increased swing and a move against the Liberal party in Tasmania’s other divisions.

8.25pm: The swing towards Labor in Braddon in the North-West has increased to 5.18 per cent with just over 41 per cent of two candidate preferred votes counted. Labor’s Justine Keay has 52.62 per cent of the vote with 47 of 69 polling places returning results.

8.24pm: The Australian Recreational Fishers Party has recorded a primary vote of between 5 and 6 per cent in each of the Tasmanian lower house seats where it has fielded a candidate.

Shelley Shay is the best-performing candidate at the party’s first outing in a federal election with 6.35 per cent of the votes counted in Bass so far.

In Bass, Mark Tapsell has captured 5.19 per cent of the vote and in Braddon Glen Saltmarsh has gained 5.83 per cent of first preferences.

The party’s preferences are expected to flow strongly to Labor in the three seats and may end up playing a decisive role in the final result in each.

8.20pm: Interesting note: informal voting has been highest in Braddon, recorded at 5.43 per cent. Denison, which has been called by political analyst Kevin Bonham for incumbent independent Andrew Wilkie, recorded the lowest percentage of informal votes with 2.9 per cent. Bass had 4.19 per cent informal votes, Lyons 4.4 per cent and Franklin 3.38 per cent.

8.10pm: Andrew Nikolic has reportedly called Ross Hart to concede the seat of Bass.

8.03pm: Tasmanian election analyst Kevin Bonham says Independent Andrew Wilkie will retain his seat of Denison, Labor’s Julie Collins will retain Franklin and Ross Hart (ALP) will take the seat of Bass from Liberal incumbent Andrew Nikolic.

The seats in the North and North-West of the state are living up to their reputations as difficult for incumbents to defend. On current trends, Lyons and Braddon are also on track to change hands. Dr Bonham described the Liberal members there as “all but gone”.

Should the predictions prove correct it will be the third federal election in a row at which the seats have changed allegiances.

8pm: In Lyons, 60 of 81 polling places have returned two candidate preferred results and a total of 42.79 per cent of votes have been counted overall. Predictions of a tight race for Lyons have held true, with a swing of 3.45 per cent to Labor’s Brian Mitchell. Incumbent Eric Hutchinson has recorded 47.77 per cent of the two candidate preferred vote, and Brian Mitchell has 52.23 per cent so far. Hutchinson holds the seat with a 1.22 per cent margin.

7.50pm: Sitting Liberal member Eric Hutchinson say he’s not out of the race for the seat of Lyons where he is battling a 3.5 per cent swing to ALP challenger Brian Mitchell.

“We’re certainly not giving up at this stage,” he has told the ABC.

“It was always going to be difficult.

“It does appear the scare campaign run by the Labor Party has had a significant effect.”

7.47pm: In Braddon, 32 of 69 polling places have returned their two candidate preferred results with Labor’s Justine Keay receiving a 4.9 per cent swing. Just over 18 per cent of votes have been counted, showing Keay with 52.34 per cent of the vote ahead of Liberal Brett Whiteley with 47.66 per cent.

7.46pm: Early counting of first preference results in the Senate show Independent Jacqui Lambie can expect to be returned. Preliminary counting of first preference votes indicate Senator Lambie is on track to retain her seat with a projection she will receive 1.3 quotas. Although the final result in the Senate may not be known for days and will be subject to the distribution of preferences, the Liberal party is currently on track to secure 4.7 quotas, Labor 3.1 and the Greens 1.4.

7.44pm: Kevin Bonham has called the seat of Bass for Labor’s Ross Hart to displace Liberal incumbent Andrew Nikolic.

Follow his live blog here

7.40pm: Half of Bass polling places have returned their two candidate preferred results (24 of 48), showing Labor’s Ross Hart ahead with 56.27 per cent against Liberal Andrew Nikolic who has suffered a 10.31 per cent swing against him and who has 43.73 per cent of the vote. So far, 26.69 per cent of votes in Bass have been counted, with larger booths in Launceston yet to return results.

7.33pm: The Greens’ vote is holding steady across Tasmania. In Bass and Denison the party has experienced a swing of just over 3 per cent in favour of their candidates. In Braddon, Lyons and Franklin the results are improvements of 0.8 per cent, 1.1 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively. The party suffered a steep decline in its primary vote at the 2013 election.

7.30pm: Things are looking good for Labor in Lyons where ALP candidate Brian Mitchell is enjoying a 2 per cent swing on first preference votes with more than half the booths counted.

Liberal incumbent Eric Hutchinson is suffering a 2.67 per cent swing against him.

Mr Hutchinson only holds the seat with a 1.22 per cent margin.

The projected two-candidate preferred result, based on nearly 15 per cent of the vote, shows a 3.39 per cent swing towards Labor.

Greens candidate Hannah Rubenach-Quinn is enjoying a small boost to the party’s primary vote.

7.21pm: Just under half of Braddon’s 69 polling places have returned first preferences. The ALP has pulled ahead with a 3.31 per cent swing towards them. Liberal member Brett Whiteley has recorded a 5.55 per cent swing against him, with Australian Recreational Fishers Party also polling well on first preferences with 6.13 per cent.

7.16pm: With just about half of polling places returning first preferences in Bass the swing against Liberal member Andrew Nikolic is 10.98 per cent. Challenger Ross Hart has so far recorded a swing towards him of 6.98 per cent, with the Australian Recreational Fishers Party recording a positive swing of 6.26 per cent – all on first preferences.

7.15pm: Andrew Wilkie (Ind) is cruising to a comfortable victory in Denison. With 11 of the 40 polling places in the seat now counted, Mr Wilkie has secured a swing of more than four per cent of the primary vote. Liberal Marcus Allan is currently vying with Labor’s Jane Austin on 20.5 per cent of the vote each.

7.11pm: Sitting Labor member Julie Collins appears to be on track to retain her seat of Franklin with a swing towards her of 6.6 per cent of the primary vote with 19 of 50 polling places tallied so far. Challenger Amanda-Sue Markham (Lib) is weathering a 3 per cent decline in her party’s primary vote.

7.07pm: Very preliminary figures Tasmania’s three northern electorates are showing a swing towards Labor challengers and away from the “three amigo” Liberal members in each.

Australian Electoral Commission figures show a swing of 10.8 per cent of first preference votes against Andrew Nikolic in Bass, 4.6 per cent against Brett Whiteley in Braddon, and 3.2 per cent against Eric Hutchinson in Lyons.

6.41pm: First results for Denison have sitting member Andrew Wilkie (IND) recording a strong 54.7 per cent of the primary vote. Labor candidate Jane Austin and Liberal candidate Marcus Allan both recorded just over 10 per cent.

6.39pm: The first booth in Franklin has returned a strong result for incumbent MP Julie Collins (ALP) who has taken 44.7 per cent of the first 984 votes counted. Her main rival, Liberal Amanda-Sue Markham, has received 39.4 per cent of those votes. Green Martine Delaney has reaped just over 10.5 per cent of those votes. Ms Collins is widely tipped to retain the seat.

6.35pm:The first votes have been counted in Bass, with Liberal Andrew Nikolic recording 47.2 per cent of the primary vote, and Labor candidate Ross Hart slightly behind on 32.8 per cent. Greens candidate Terril Riley-Gibson has recorded 8 per cent.

6.31pm: The first booth in Lyons has returned a strong vote for sitting member Eric Hutchinson (Lib). He’s taken 50.9 per cent of the first 214 votes counted, with challenger Brian Mitchell (ALP) receiving 29.9 per cent. Opinion polling shows the seat is expected to be a tight race, so it is expected to be a long night for both candidates.

6.21pm: The first 165 votes have been counted in Tasmania in the seat of Braddon. Liberal Brett Whitely has secured 45.5 per cent of that tiny sample, with his challenger – ALP hopeful Justine Keay – securing 30.1 per cent.

6.10pm:POLLING booths on the eastern seaboard have closed and the job of counting 15.6 million votes has begun. Around the nation, 994 candidates are awaiting the outcome in 150 House of Representitive seats. In the Senate, 631 candidates are in contention for 76 seats. Results from early counting are expected within the hour.

6pm: Political analyst Kevin Bonham is also blogging live with us tonight, giving you the best local insights into who will be Tasmania’s next federal representatives.

SEND YOUR QUESTIONS AND JOIN THE LIVE BLOG HERE

5.55pm: Get all the latest national coverage of the 2016 Federal Election in our election blog.

LIVE BLOG: IT’S ALL OVER ... BAR THE COUNTING

5.50pm: VOTERS already struggling to understand a new Senate ballot process could be confused by wayward instructions from staff at Tasmanian polling booths, an analyst says.

“There have been reports some staff are telling people to vote for six parties above the line or 12 candidates below the line in the Senate and not using the magic words ‘at least’,” political analyst Kevin Bonham wrote on his blog.

“Some staff have even been reported as saying ‘only’ this number of boxes.”

READ MORE: CLAIMS BOOTH STAFF CONFUSED VOTERS

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Original URL: https://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/tasmania-votes-rolling-coverage-of-the-federal-election-results/news-story/2b2695f5000c8472066bfdedc98e8e7a