Winter of discontent plagues Labor campaign
This deep division has happened under the leadership of Ms White does not bode well for her future. The problem for Labor is there is no suitable alternative currently within its elected ranks, writes Mercury editor Jenna Cairney. OUR ROLLING ANALYSIS >>
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PUNDITS piled on to the Tasmanian Labor Party Monday after the bizarre decision not to preselect popular Kingborough mayor Dean Winter to run in the May 1 election.
The commentary was withering and the move left three former premiers scratching their heads.
Paul Lennon spoke exclusively to the Mercury at the weekend to say Labor could not hope to win this election without endorsing Mr Winter in Franklin.
Lara Giddings said she was disappointed and that Mr Winter was premier material.
“Can someone, anyone – particularly the ALP admin committee tell us why Dean Winter was not preselected? In politics accountability is everything – so front up,” David Bartlett wrote on Twitter.
But it was former Tasmanian Labor Minister Julian Amos who didn’t miss, saying the decision would consign the party to Opposition and that it meant the end of Rebecca White’s leadership.
Labor must gain ground in the South to stand any chance of forming government. So it was jaw-dropping that the party decided to announce its candidates in the North of the state on Monday.
By lunchtime, an online petition had been launched to have Labor reconsider endorsing Mr Winter.
It’s excruciating to watch because the Tasmanian public deserves so much better.
Good democracies rely on good Opposition and contest.
There is no doubt that West Australians will be worse off now that the Liberals have been virtually obliterated from that state.
And just look at what Campbell Newman did to Queensland after his landslide victory there.
Labor has had nothing to do during the pandemic other than create a narrative and policy that clearly sets out why they would make a better government.
The launch of the election should have seen them drive that message home, not trying to hide in Launceston because they have allowed their party administrators to put factions before people.
Even if it is not her fault, that this deep division has happened under the leadership of Ms White does not bode well for her future. The problem for Labor is there is no suitable alternative currently within its elected ranks.
Early poll helps Libs avoid political problems
David Killick
THE timing of the snap election announced by Peter Gutwein on Friday is a signal the remainder of 2021 will be a tough time for Tasmanians — and whoever forms government.
In his press conference, Mr Gutwein said he was moved to call the election because of the instability inherent in minority government.
The possibility of an independent Sue Hickey causing continued havoc for the Liberals would not have been the only thing on his mind.
The timing of Mr Gutwein’s announcement has caught Labor by surprise.
The opposition party hasn’t yet preselected all its candidates for the election.
A factional brawl is raging behind the scenes between the dominant left and minority right.
Now the party has a bare five weeks to find candidates, secure funds, mobilise volunteers and devise and deliver a full suite of policies.
Rebecca White’s long-serving chief of staff Michael Stedman departs within days and his replacement has been in the state for a mere two weeks.
Despite the danger of a backlash for going a year early, Mr Gutwein is riding high in the opinion polls thanks to his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The balance of this year will be tough and delaying an election would have been a strategy fraught with risk.
The Commission of Inquiry into the Tasmanian Government’s Responses to Child Sexual Abuse in Institutional Settings is likely to uncover systematic mishandling of abuse within government departments, which inevitably reflect poorly on those in power.
The end of the JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments end at the end of March will likely slow the state’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic — though the full effect will take some time to show in official figures, probably around mid-May.
The federal government’s slow implosion is not a great help either.
But, most critically, the state budget due on August 26 will now be a post-election rather than a pre-election budget.
Forget the free-spending stimulus of last year. Tasmanians can instead look forward to a tight budget that seeks to put a cap on the state’s ballooning debt.
The short period between last year’s budget and the election will give the government some cover for having failed to deliver much of its vaunted infrastructure spending, given that just five months have elapsed.
And Mr Gutwein avoids the scrutiny of the Budget Estimates hearings that follow.
There are several hot-button issues that have now been conveniently delayed until after May 1.
Chief among these are poker machine legislation, electoral donations reform and promised improvements to transparency, plus the likelihood of a strong campaign against TAFE reforms from teachers.
By going to an election now, Mr Gutwein pushes all those difficult issues further down the road, a problem for whoever is in power to deal with after the election.
This election will be ‘fought out in the trenches’
The path towards an early election was set as soon as Sue Hickey’s fate was sealed, and with Peter Gutwein having the title of one of Tasmania’s most-popular-ever premiers, he’s in prime position, writes editor Jenna Cairney.
WHEN you are at peak popularity, there is only one way for those approval ratings to go in time – and that’s south.
Premier Peter Gutwein now has the title of one of Tasmania’s most-popular-ever premiers due to his leadership during the coronavirus crisis.
He wasn’t the premier that the Liberals went to the last election with but following the resignation of Will Hodgman in January 2020, he took on the role at just the right time and outperformed all expectations.
There is no doubt that the pandemic has given leaders the opportunity to shine.
Tasmania's Premier Peter Gutwein is asked about his decision to go to a snap election in May, a time Opposition Leader Rebecca White will be heavily pregnant. "I have given this a great deal of thought." #Politas#Auspol@SBSNews@s_maunderpic.twitter.com/b4aCiPWM1B
— Naveen Razik (@naveenjrazik) March 26, 2021
Australia has indeed been the Lucky Country compared to the rest of the world in terms of our management of COVID-19 and, other than in Victoria, most of the country hasn’t been subjected to lengthy, repeat lockdowns.
Here in Tasmania, other than interstate travel changes, life has been pretty normal and pretty good for some months now.
Across the country, elections in the Northern Territory, Queensland and Western Australia have proven that crisis-weary voters craved stability and safety. Incumbent leaders were rewarded with convincing election wins.
Those results undoubtedly inspired Mr Gutwein to forge ahead with an early election.
Few will blame him for that. Indeed polls both by the Mercury and commercial radio yesterday indicated Tasmanians were happy to head to an election.
Having set out his ambitious State of the State last week, Mr Gutwein will use this election to give him a mandate to lead Tasmania forward in recovery and as acceptance of some of his more controversial policies such as plans to overhaul TAFE.
The path toward an early election was set as soon as Sue Hickey’s fate was sealed.
The Sunday Tasmanian’s Sue Bailey had an exclusive interview with the Speaker last weekend which resulted in the Premier informing Ms Hickey that she would not be endorsed by the Liberal Party.
Ms Hickey resigned from the party meaning the Liberals were in minority government.
Bizarrely, the Opposition led by Labor’s Rebecca White did next to nothing to capitalise on it, instead focusing all their Question Time energy on pulling apart the TAFE policy.
Ms White didn’t even bother to do a press conference the day Ms Hickey resigned instead leaving it up to David O’Byrne.
The government was surprised to survive a full week without a no-confidence motion from Labor.
During the week Mr Gutwein accidentally-on-purpose described Cassy O’Connor as the Opposition Leader, and it’s true that the Greens MP has done a better job at holding the government to account with consistent platforms and policies.
Regardless of Mr Gutwein’s leadership or Ms White’s lackthereof, when it comes down to it, due to the Hare Clark system this election will be fought out in the trenches and will rely on who can get the most talented and appealing candidates where it counts.
Grief stricken parents launch petition for ATV reform
There have been more than 20 deaths involving ATVs in Tasmania since 2000 and now a grieving couple have started a petition for tougher regulations around their use. Read what they want.
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