LIVE BLOG: Tasmania's guide to the 2022 Federal election
The Mercury was on the ground from 8am all the way until midnight Saturday to keep our readers up to date with everything they needed to know about the federal election. COMPLETE ELECTION DAY WRAP>>>
The Mercury
less than 2 min read
May 20, 2022 - 12:13PM
Welcome to The Mercury's live 2022 Federal Election blog.
We're thrilled to have the unrivalled expertise of Dr Kevin Bonham covering this election night.
Three of Tasmania's five House of Representatives seats will be the focus of national attention: both major parties have run big campaigns in Bass, Braddon and Lyons. In the Senate, all eyes will be on the battle between Liberal Senator Eric Abetz and challengers Tammy Tyrrell from the Jacquie Lambie Network and Leanne Minshull from the newly-formed Local Party.
Our team of expert political reporters and gun photographers standing by up to deliver all the developments that matter to Tasmania as they happen.
Tasmanians are cooling off from the election fever as the reality of an Albanese government begins to sink in.
Hobart voter Billie Goss said she remained cautiously optimistic about the prospect of Anthony Albanese shaking things up in government.
“I’m prepared to give him a chance and just see what comes from it,” Ms Goss said.
Billie Goss and Danielle Woodcock.
“I’m happy to have a change and just see what comes from the change.”
Her one big disappointment on voting day was the crushing lack of democracy sausage sizzle at her particular voting centre.
Her consolation was the fact there were also no annoying volunteers handing out how-to-vote cards at her booth.
Her friend Danielle Woodcock was more dubious about the prospect of an Albanese government, but said she nevertheless wished him all the best in the top job.
“I certainly didn’t vote for him, that’s for sure. I’m a bit of a greenie, so I voted Greens,” Ms Woodcock said.
“With Albanese I hope he does well and I hope he does what he’s promised to do.”
We have seen a change of government with Labor on the cusp of a majority off a very low primary vote (at least we'll never see the claim that Labor needs 40% to win an election again).
The Coalition crashed, and Labor has inherited government by holding up better, but the crossbench are the real winners, with numerous new independents and probably 2-3 new Greens.
The election has rewritten the rulebook about how third parties and independents gain seats and Australian politics will probably never be the same again.
The Senate races will be fascinating in coming days (except in Tasmania where the result, a Lambie Network gain from Liberal, looks very cut and dried).
In Tasmania's case, a strong result for the Liberal Party, retaining Braddon, probably retaining Bass though that is closing suddenly as I type in late counting, and pushing Brian Mitchell into a razor-close contest that could drag on for weeks in Lyons.
It has been a most remarkable evening, and my pleasure to be calling it.
Trouble spot for Labor in Fowler
– Electoral Analyst Kevin Bonham
Kristina Keneally's position in Fowler has just taken a turn for the worse and she is now well behind there, so that's another trouble spot for Labor, which is getting the job done in the classic two party seats but having its majority chances threatened by losses to the crossbench.
The seat of Lyons hangs in the balance and will come down to preferences and postal votes.
Sitting Labor member Brian Mitchell went into the election with a 5.2 per cent margin but after counting on Saturday night he had 29.85 per cent of first preferences trailing the Liberal’s Susie Bower with 36.53 per cent of the vote.
However, on likely projections the Australian Electoral Commission had Mr Mitchell on 50.47 per cent a whisker ahead of 49.53 per cent.
Julie Collins MP and Brian Mitchell MP at Parliament lawns, Hobart. Picture: Chris Kidd
The seat of Lyons attracted a field of eight candidates and after the two major parties the Greens Liz Johnstone had secured 11.41 per cent of the vote followed by Jacqui Lambie Network candidate Troy Pfitzner with 10.37 per cent.
Mr Mitchell, who has held Lyons since he was first elected in 2016, did front the Labor Party at the Glenorchy Football clubrooms until close to 10.30 last night.
Despite repeated requests for an interview he was not available to comment to the Mercury on the vote count.
Even Labor Party faithful gathered at clubrooms were disappointed that neither Mr Mitchell or Franklin MP Julie Collins who easily retained her seat joined the celebrations earlier in the night.
Political observers had expected Mr Mitchell to retain his seat. Ms Bower, who ran in Lyons at last year’s state election, says it could be two weeks before the final result is known.
Liberal candidate for Lyons Susie Bower voting at Westbury.
“It is very close,” Ms Bower said from the Longford RSL where she had gathered with supporters.
“It is 50-50 and too close to call.
“I’ve done everything I could and I have no regrets whatsoever with what I have done and it is now up to the voters of Lyons.
“I needed a five per cent swing so it is great to see this result so far.”
Ms Bower, who has worked in local government and was a councillor on the Meander Valley Council, said she would just have to sit tight.
“It could be two weeks before we know the result and I’m pleased there’s a Top Gun sequel which I can watch.”
Griffith a Green gain from Labor
– Electoral Analyst Kevin Bonham
Extremely hard to see how Terri Butler makes the top two in Griffith 1.6% behind on primaries, with postals and ON/UAP preferences to come.
It looks very likely Griffith is indeed a Green gain from Labor.
Everyone thought Queensland was conservative from far north to tweed heads, but Greens we’re just operating in stealth mode ready to strike
Tangney now looks very likely to fall, at which point Labor could suffer a net loss of two from its possible gains and seats at risk and still have a majority.
Another bolter has just been added to the possible gain list with Labor competitive in vacant Menzies.
Another interesting seat is Cowper where we will have to watch for a realignment in coming days with independent Caz Heise looking competitive. ABC is now projecting this as too close to call.
An interesting point about Macnamara is that that seat tends to see big shifts to the Liberals in post-counting. So there is a threat to Labor there, which is that they could still fall to third. But their 5% lead over the Liberals is quite large at the moment.
Tasmania least interesting race in the Senate
– Electoral Analyst Kevin Bonham
The Senate is off to a fascinating start.
Tasmania which is tracking for 2-2-1-1 is the least interesting race.
Pretty much everywhere else there is a scenario I looked at in some states before the election: if the Liberal vote crashed but Labor's did not rise, then a small party might become competitive for the final seat.
This applies in NSW (where the Liberals are at risk to One Nation), Victoria (where the UAP leads the micro pack) and South Australia (where Nick Xenophon is struggling and won't get a good preference flow and One Nation might be in the mix).
Queensland is tracking for 2-2-1-1 though there is an astonishingly high Legalise Cannabis vote so far.
In Western Australia it is also not clear the Coalition can get three. And finally in the ACT, Zed Seselja's vote is much too low so far and he appears this time to be losing to David Pocock (IND).
A very long way to go in these races, and the Coalition may manage to hold its vote up to get three in these contests, and I will follow this story in detail over coming weeks.
Eight gains in Labor's chances of majority
– Electoral Analyst Kevin Bonham
Focusing on Labor's chances of a majority, they appear to have eight gains: Hasluck, Pearce, Swan, Reid, Robertson, Chisholm, Higgins and Boothby, though Boothby and Robertson are not over yet.
That would be 77 and some other possibilities include Bennelong, Brisbane and Tangney.
However Labor is also struggling in a number of their own seats: Griffith where they are at major risk of falling into third, Gilmore where they are projecting behind (though ahead on the current live count), Lyons which is line-ball, Richmond where they might yet not make the final two, Fowler where Kristina Keneally is currently behind Dai Le on the live count (though likely to win).
With the count climbing to 65% in Mackellar it appears that Jason Falinski has been defeated by Sophie Scamps (IND), so that will be teal gain number three.
Kooyong and North Sydney look extremely grim, with the potential for the Liberals to lose a leadership contender in Josh Frydenberg and Peter Dutton (who has retained) to be opposition leader.
With the count climbing to 65% in Mackellar it appears that Jason Falinski has been defeated by Sophie Scamps (IND), so that will be teal gain number three.
Kooyong and North Sydney look extremely grim, with the potential for the Liberals to lose a leadership contender in Josh Frydenberg and Peter Dutton (who has retained) to be opposition leader.
Susie Bower puts Lyons seat on the wire
– Electoral Analyst Kevin Bonham
And now a move back to Susie Bower in Lyons putting the seat on the wire – we will almost certainly not know the result tonight.
Second teal gain, Liberals in trouble
– Electoral Analyst Kevin Bonham
Zoe Daniel has defeated Tim Wilson, so that's a second teal gain, with the Liberals in various levels of trouble in Mackellar, North Sydney and Kooyong.
Federal Election 2021. Independent candidate Zoe Daniel campaigns at Ormond Primary School on election day. Picture: Jake Nowakowski
Some of these might still be saved on prepolls and postals.
Ryan looks very solid as a Green gain, however a potential Labor gain in Brisbane is now also in danger of being gained by the Greens instead, as the Greens have moved into second.
Email exchange over the resignation of convicted Tasmanian judge Gregory Geason included a final ultimatum from the state government. An RTI reveals how it happened.
