Liberal leadership handover ‘unlikely’ if Premier Jeremy Rockliff loses no-confidence motion
The Tasmanian government has been thrown into uncertainty after a no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff. A leading academic answers if we’re heading to an early election.
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The Tasmanian government may have little choice but to call an early election should a no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff pass the state’s lower house, with a leading academic saying a Liberal leadership handover was unlikely in such politically tumultuous circumstances.
Professor Richard Herr said that a repeat of the Liberal’s 1996 post-election arrangement – in which Premier Ray Groom passed the leadership baton to colleague Tony Rundle to avoid breaking a personal promise not to govern with Greens’ support – was implausible where a no-confidence motion had effectively been made against an entire government.
And with Governor Barbara Baker not returning from overseas until next Monday, Mr Rockliff could potentially be making a visit to Lieutenant Governor, the Honourable Christopher Shanahan, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, over coming days.
“The fact is that the Premier would have very little choice other than going to advise the Governor that he’d lost the confidence of parliament, and he could offer no advice other than to dissolve the parliament and go to early election,” Prof Herr said.
“There are no alternatives that make any real sense, in terms of stability.
“So in the end, it does appear that we will be going to an early election if the no-confidence motion passes.
“But, of course, the consequences for Labor and their leadership would be quite serious if it did not pass.
“With the budget, it’s a complicated time to have brought on this kind of motion, and certainly won’t do the electorate or the state much good either way.”
Prof Herr predicted that in the event of a second Tasmanian election in two years, the government would push to hold it “sooner rather than later”, in consultation with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
The last state election, held on 23 March last year, restored the House of Assembly to 35 seats and resulted in the Rockliff Liberal government requiring cross bench support for ongoing confidence and supply.
Official Secretary, David Hughes, confirmed Her Excellency remained on a period of leave, and would return to work on 9 June.
“As proclaimed in the Tasmanian Government Gazette on Friday 9 May 2025, the Lieutenant Governor, the Honourable Christopher Shanahan, is currently administering the state,” Mr Hughes said.
“The Lieutenant Governor holds all the powers of the Governor during the period he is administering the state.”
Analysis: Failure to communicate has come back to bite
In the words of the late Paul Newman: what we’ve got here, is a failure to communicate. Political editor David Killick delves into the no-confidence motion and votes. Plus, the current odds for a new premier or next political saga.
‘Resign’ call as election looms
Tasmanians will wait until next week to find out when they will return to the polls after parliament passed a no-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff on Thursday.