Labor faces a tough uphill battle to overcome Liberals
The last big-spending budget, multiple elections and a Labor power struggle. DAVID KILLICK analyses what we can expect to see from our parliamentarians this year.
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- Labor reshuffles team, says it’s ready for an election
- Right-to-die law passes key vote in Tasmanian parliament
THE 2021 political year is shaping up as a stiff test for the leadership of Labor leader Rebecca White.
As party acolytes devote their energies to infighting (see below), Labor needs to engineer a big swing against an incumbent premier surfing a wave of popularity for his handling of the pandemic.
In its strongest seat at the 2018 election, the party commanded 41 per cent of the vote, but in its worst, Bass, it struggled to win a quarter of the first preference ballots.
The latest EMRS opinion poll in December showed a gulf between the parties roughly on par with the 2014 result that handed Labor just seven seats in the 25-seat House of Assembly.
The party has not won the majority of seats in a state election since 2006, when Paul Lennon defeated Rene Hidding, and has not won the majority of votes since Jim Bacon saw off Bob Cheek in 2002.
Labor is wrestling with significant internal rumblings about the direction of the party and the dominance of key members of the Left faction.
There has been significant staff turnover and Rebecca White’s new chief of staff Mel James has a big job ahead.
THE PARLIAMENT
The parliamentary year will begin on an unusual note: further debate on the Right to Die laws was promised by Premier Peter Gutwein last year and will dominate the first sitting week from Tuesday. It’s not clear how long that will take.
Premier Gutwein is expected to unveil his agenda for 2021 in the following sitting week on March 16. It will be dominated by the need to rebuild the state’s post-COVID economy and to get much-needed infrastructure spending out the door.
The Commission of Inquiry into Tasmanian Government Agencies management of historical allegations of child sexual abuse will be the sombre backdrop for much of the political year.
But the Premier has also pledged to get on with electoral reform, increasing government transparency and reviewing land tax rates.
A DIFFICULT BUDGET
Tasmanians can expect another stimulus election budget to be handed down on August 26 — but it will be the last of this kind. No treasurer is going to cut spending sharply in a pre-election year.
The state will be carrying record levels of debt and a deficit close to a billion dollars in the 2020-21 fiscal year. As Treasurer, Peter Gutwein will want to see a big improvement in the pace of delivery of infrastructure projects such as the Bridgewater Bridge.
But whoever holds the Treasury purse strings from 2022-23 will almost certainly be delivering austerity budgets.
A FEDERAL ELECTION?
The next 12 months will be a festival of democracy in Tasmania, with state and federal elections due, plus three Upper House ballots.
Federal elections have generally been about 1000 days apart over the past 40 years. Prime Minister Scott Morrison can choose to go to the polls any time between August this year and May 2022. Bass and Braddon will again be the focus in Tasmania but expect a determined Liberal campaign in Lyons as well.
House of Assembly elections are expected before March next year. Mr Gutwein has said he will go full term.
There will also be three Upper House seats in play during 2021. Elections will be held in the divisions of Derwent, Mersey and Windemere. Labor’s Craig Farrell in Derwent and independent Mike Gaffney in Mersey will enjoy the benefits of incumbency.
Long-serving MLC Ivan Dean’s departure will leave the seat of Windemere wide open. The electorate along the east bank of the Tamar River has been held by independents since 1999.
All that electoral activity adds up to a festival of preselection for the major parties. State parliament alone will require the Liberals, Labor and the Greens to come up with up to 75 candidates between them — five in each seat for the five seats. Add on top of that senate and House of Reps candidates...
A PRE-ELECTION YEAR
The polls and the betting agencies have the Liberals well in front to be returned for a record-breaking third term with Peter Gutwein at the helm — in large measure due to his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
But Tasmania’s Hare-Clark electoral system and its multi-member electorates routinely make fools of pundits.
The Liberals are showing signs that their strategy will be heavily focused on the north of the state. Party strategists clearly see that the party’s position in Bass, Braddon and Lyons will be critical to its chances of holding onto majority rule.
Braddon poses a particular challenge for the Liberals, with the party having lost two members and run through all its reserves thanks to sitting members retiring and an unexpected vacancy would elevate a candidate from outside the party. All eyes will be on Jeremy Rockliff, Roger Jaesnch and Felix Ellis to go full term.
In Clark, the presence — or absence — of high-profile Speaker Sue Hickey and independent Madeleine Ogilvie on the ballot paper will make for a fascinating contest. And Glenorchy Mayor Kristie Johnston has added even more excitement to the mix.
And in Franklin, the retirement of vote magnet Will Hodgman and the lower profiles of the Liberal incumbents will prove an opportunity for Labor and the Greens to make inroads.
The Greens are pinning their hopes of increasing their two-seat representation on a flow of defectors back to the party who voted for Labor for its pokies policy in 2018. The job of electing a third MP looks easiest in Bass: the party’s vote in Braddon and Lyons has collapsed since the party spent a term power-sharing with Labor from 2010 to 2014.
‘This is going to blow the whole party up’
A BITTER power struggle within the Labor Party is set to overshadow state election preparations amid claims sitting MPs have not been validly preselected.
A complaint about breaches of party rules is headed for a committee that some are claiming has already been stacked.
The conduct of the party’s powerful Left-faction dominated Administrative Committee has been referred to the Disputes Committee.
But the Disputes Committee members are appointed by the Administrative Committee.
Pitting longstanding members against each other, the dispute raises the possibility of a request for intervention from the federal branch — or court action.
Either could overturn the preselection of the party’s sitting Lower House members and throw the party’s election preparation into chaos.
A copy of the complaint sent to the party’s state secretary Stuart Benson, which has been seen by the Mercury, alleges multiple breaches of party rules.
Rule 10.12 requires that all eligible members take an equal part with the state conference delegates in a full preferential ballot for candidates.
Instead, the decision was made by the Administrative Committee.
“This outcome appears to be undemocratic and contrary to the specific and express rules of the party,” the complaint says.
“All actions of the party, particularly in relation for preselection for public office, should be done in accordance with the party rules and democratic principles.”
But Right faction members say the adjudicating panel has already been stacked by the Left members nominated by the very committee the complaint is about, leaving the result a foregone conclusion.
“The Disputes Committee shall comprise of three financial members elected by the
Administrative Committee,” party rules say.
Senior Labor Party figures have been privately expressing concern behind the scenes about the direction the party is heading ahead of a state election due by March next year.
“Admin is running roughshod over rank and file members and conference delegates,” one longstanding member said.
“This is the ignition of a bonfire that has been burning for quite some time. I reckon this is going to blow the whole party up.”
The member said some in the party were more concerned with ideological purity than electoral success.
“They would rather be in total control of a party that’s in opposition than in partial control of a party that’s in government,” they said.
Another senior party member said the complaint should be cut and dried.
“Sitting members have been preselected in breach of the rules of the party,” they said.
“It’s disgraceful behaviour from people in a party that’s supposed to be progressive and democratic.”
Ms White would not comment on the dispute.
“All matters regarding the administration of the party should be directed to the state secretary.”
Labor party state secretary Stuart Benson was approached for comment.
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