Justine Keay struggling to hang on to Braddon, new ReachTel poll for Australia Institute shows

LABOR candidate Justine Keay is trailing her Liberal rival Brett Whiteley and will struggle to prevail in the by-election battle for Braddon, a new poll shows.

LABOR candidate Justine Keay is trailing her Liberal rival Brett Whiteley by almost seven percentage points and will struggle to prevail in the by-election battle for the North-West Tasmanian seat of Braddon, a new poll shows.

But no party commands a majority and the final result will be determined by the preferences of minor party candidates, according to a ReachTel poll commissioned by think tank The Australia Institute.

The telephone poll of 700 voters, conducted on Friday, showed Mr Whiteley enjoying the support of 42.9 per cent of those polled ahead of Ms Keay on 36.3 per cent.

Independent Craig Garland recorded eight per cent support and Green Jarrod Evans 4.4 per cent. Just over six per cent of the electorate remains undecided.

Ms Keay — who was forced to resign from Federal Parliament after being found to be a dual citizen — increased her support by 3.6 percentage points from 33 per cent in a previous Sky-ReachTel poll and Mr Whiteley has fallen 4.1 points from an unassailable winning position of 47 per cent.

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Labor Leader Bill Shorten and Braddon candidate Justine Keay. PICTURE CHRIS KIDD

In the last five federal elections in Braddon, the victorious candidate secured at least 40 per cent of the primary vote and Ms Keay will need to secure the preferences of two-thirds of voters in order to win the seat and return to Canberra.

The notoriously fickle electorate has changed hands four times since 2004.

At the 2016 Federal election at which Ms Keay was elected, she won 40.05 per cent of the primary votes, and Mr Whiteley 41.5 per cent. The Greens and the Australian Recreational Fishers Party each took about six per cent of the vote, most of which flowed to Labor.

Mr Keay secured 52.2 per cent of the vote after the distribution of preferences.

The Australia Institute-ReachTel poll also revealed lukewarm support for cutting company taxes at 37.4 per cent and strong support — 67.8 per cent — for retaining penalty rates on Sundays and public holidays.