Gap between Liberals and Labor narrows as Government loses support to One Nation

A NEW poll of Tasmanian voting intentions that throws One Nation into the mix has produced a “terrible” result for the State Government, says a leading polling analyst.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, left, with Jacqui Lambie. EMRS polling showed One Nation had 6 per cent support mainly at the expense of the Government. Picture: AAP/MICK TSIKAS

A NEW poll of Tasmanian voting intentions that throws One Nation into the mix has produced a “terrible” result for the State Government, says a leading polling analyst.

The latest EMRS poll has support for the Liberals at 35 per cent, down five percentage points since the last poll in November.

Will Hodgman remains very popular in the preferred premier stakes, with 52 per cent support. Picture: SAM ROSEWARNE

Support for Labor rose one point to 29 per cent.

The Greens gained one point to 19 per cent.

If replicated at an election the poll would result in a hung parliament.

The polling for the first time included One Nation, which had 6 per cent support — mainly at the expense of the Liberals.

This was despite One Nation having done nothing in Tasmania except announcing an intention to run state election candidates

EMRS chief operations director Samuel Paske said the loss of support for the Liberals did not significantly benefit Labor or the Greens, and flowed directly to One Nation.

“It is important to note that in this latest EMRS poll, the option of One Nation was read out for the first time as we felt it important to measure the level of Tasmanian support given their standing elsewhere and their likelihood to stand in Tasmania in the future,” Mr Paske said.

Despite the narrowing gap between the two major parties, Labor leader Bryan Green remains significantly behind Premier Will Hodgman in the preferred Premier stakes.

Mr Hodgman remains very popular with 52 per cent support compared with 20 per cent in support of Mr Green.

#EMRS Preferred Premier sky-high for Hodgman at 52-20 although primary lead only 35-29 #politas

— Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) March 6, 2017

Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said the poll would result in the Liberals losing one seat in every electorate except Denison.

“It’s a terrible poll for the Liberals,” Dr Bonham said.

“If an election was held now based on this poll they would drop down to about 11 seats. Labor would pick up three and the Greens would gain one.”

Dr Bonham said the level of support for One Nation could change significantly when candidates were chosen.

“As we’ve seen in Western Australia, that can be where things get messy. They have to put up a bunch of candidates and those candidates have to be scrutinised, and these parties are seriously hopeless at scrutinising candidates,” he said.

Dr Bonham said the result for the Liberals could be related to federal factors.

The polling of 1000 Tasmanian residents was undertaken last week.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has announced her intention to run candidates in all Tasmanian seats at the next state election, which will be held in March 2018 at the latest.

The situation could be complicated further if popular federal Tasmanian independents Jacqui Lambie and Andrew Wilkie decide to endorse candidates.

The State Government has continued to brush off persistent speculation of an early election.