Wooley: World might be ending but I’ve decided not to panic

There are enough threats right here on our turbulent planet … never mind the ones hurtling through space, says Charles Wooley

A group of scientists reveal the 2025 Doomsday Clock time held by The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the US Institute of Peace on January 28, 2025, in Washington, DC. The Doomsday Clock, currently the nearest it has been to midnight at 89 seconds, is a symbol for how close humanity is to a ‘global catastrophe’. Picture: Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP

In this newspaper last week astronomer Martin George from the Ulverstone Planetarium reported on the asteroid called 2024 YR4, which will make “a very close approach to Earth on December 22, 2032”.

He did not want to alarm us. And why would he given all the other pressing matters keeping us awake at nights on our turbulent planet?

“Based only on current knowledge, it is estimated to have about a 1.5 per cent chance of colliding with us in 2032, but its most likely path will see it getting no closer than about 240,000km.”

Always overwhelmed by the mind-boggling measure of the universe and given that our sun is 149 million kilometres away, a mere 240,000km seems to me like a close shave or at best a front-row seat at a great astronomical show.

But reassuringly, Martin George told his readers that the odds are “strongly in favour” of 2024 YR4 missing us in 2032. “It is important not to panic!” he exclaimed.

So, I didn’t consume a recently purchased case of Peter Lehmann shiraz that the wine bloke told me would be superb in 10 years’ time.

I didn’t panic.

Then a few days later I read that NASA’s Centre for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) had recalculated and upgraded the likelihood of an impact with 2024 YR4.

NASA had increased the odds of a collision to 2.3 per cent.

I only opened one bottle.

The asteroid Dimorphos, imaged before NASA’s DART spacecraft slammed into it in 2022 and altered its orbit. Astronomer Martin George wonders if we’ll need to deflect the asteroid 2024 YR4, which is similar in size, in the same way – to ensure collision with the Earth is avoided? Picture: NASA/Johns Hopkins AP

At times like these I prefer astronomical optics to be optimistic. So, who better to heed than the Queensland astrophysicist Professor Jonti Horner, who told us that the asteroid was likely “a small object measuring 40 to 100m and weighing about 220 million kgs.”

First the Professor gave us the bad news: “If it was to hit it would explode in the atmosphere creating a shockwave that will level an area comparable to the area of greater Sydney.”

Then the good news: while the asteroid would “come pretty close” it would likely miss us.

And if it didn’t miss, then there was even better news. Professor Horner insouciantly concluded that: “If it was going to hit it would hit on the other side of the planet to Australia anyway. So, we are not at risk in our beautiful country.”

NASA’s 2.3 per cent odds of the asteroid flattening a few million hapless earthlings on the other side of the planet has been expressed in another way; a 1-in-43 chance.

Take your pick, but either way the still unlikely impact would be about 8 megatons – or about 500 times – the explosive power of the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945.

Probably a more salient threat to humanity are the estimated 12,000 nuclear warheads presently in commission in our quarrelsome world.

Enough to wipe us all out many times over.

This handout picture provided by NASA on January 31, 2025 shows asteroid 2024 YR4 as observed by the Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope at the New Mexico Institute of Technology on January 27, 2025. A colossal explosion in the sky, unleashing energy thousands of times greater than the Hiroshima bomb. Picture: NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology/Ryan / AFP

The Doomsday Clock was established by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (founded by Albert Einstein and J. Robert Oppenheimer) to show “how close we are to destroying the world with dangers of our own making”.

It was reset last month at 89 seconds to midnight. That is the closest the Doomsday Clock has ever been to the ultimate destruction point, reflecting the newer and growing threats of climate change, pandemics, bioweapons and disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence.

I’m sorry kiddies. My generation set out with the best of intentions to improve the world. But somehow I’m afraid we have blown it in almost every way.

The asteroid heading our way will not be of the dimension or the impact of the one which destroyed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.

A group of scientists reveal the 2025 Doomsday Clock time held by The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the US Institute of Peace on January 28, 2025, in Washington, DC. The Doomsday Clock, currently the nearest it has been to midnight at 89 seconds, is a symbol for how close humanity is to a ‘global catastrophe’. Picture: Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP

And it might be a small compensation that the military science which has set us so close to midnight might also save us. Should an asteroid look like hitting this planet, NASA and other space agencies are optimistic that they can apply “technologies to deflect” incoming asteroids.

Which was the most hopeful point made by Martin George, our own Tasmanian astronomer.

“We may need to deflect its path and by ‘we’ I mean the people of Earth. A project like this could have the effect of bringing us all ‘together’ and I think we live in a time when such a result would be very, very welcome.”

When I was a kid at an apocalyptic old Methodist Sunday school in suburban Launceston we were in no doubt how the world would end. The fire and brimstone preacher in the pulpit of that weatherboard-and-iron tabernacle would invoke 2 Peter 3: 10-12, “The heavens will disappear with a roar; the elements will be destroyed by fire, and the earth and everything done in it will be laid bare.”

“When will it happen, Sir?” I once fearfully asked.

“Soon,” he thundered. “Because you are all sinners it will be very soon. Maybe tonight.”

Aren’t kids today lucky that we replaced God with science.

At least now they know the imminent end of the world won’t be their fault.

Charles Wooley is a Tasmanian-based journalist