Wooley: It’s a bleak scenario as voters brace for new round
Tasmanians are united in disappointment at what’s on offer from both sides, writes Charles Wooley
Opinion
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A fourth election in seven years. All right, it’s bad. Especially when the sagacious Saul Eslake had already warned that every time we have an election the political promises and pork barrelling send our indebted state deeper into the financial mire.
Another election seems to be the very worst prescription for what ails our state and has made us a complete economic basket case in the eyes of the rest of Australia. As our pre-eminent economist Mr Eslake, told the ABC, “One of the reasons we are in that mess is because at each of the last three elections the government has promised to spend $1.4bn over the following four years without saying a word about how any of that was going to be paid for.”
Our Governor, Barbara Baker, was out of the state on holiday during the unfolding political crisis so she probably didn’t hear our leading economist’s words of warning.
Had she been here, Mr Eslake might have otherwise pointed out to the governor that her choices, if she granted an election, were between bad and even worse.
“Labor was worse” he said. “They promised to spend $2bn over the following four years.”
Mr Eslake shouldn’t be expecting a gig with Dean Winter in the unlikely event that he forms a majority government. Nor probably with Jeremy Rockliff because sound economic advice is not what either of the major parties want to hear.
Mr Eslake painted a bleak economic scenario in which, “the punitive parties will compete with each other to buy votes that will be put on the tab.”
That’s a hell of a tab. An estimated $11bn by 2028-29.
No wonder economics is sometimes decried as “the dismal science” but in fairness this time the economist is spot on. It is in fact the performance of the two major parties, the Laborials, which entirely deserves the description “dismal”.
Mr Eslake concluded last week’s ominous early warning that the prospective granting of another election would, “make you worried that Tasmania’s financial position could get even worse than it already is. And that’s pretty bad.”
Too late now. The Governor’s decision on Wednesday has probably resulted in two drunken sailors, unleashed ashore and on the town with a couple of billion dollars of your borrowed money. And even worse, at the end of festivities there’s every possibility that neither of those rival spendthrifts will be able to form a government in their own right.
Of course, I could never be the governor of Tasmania because of my republican tendencies but were I in charge of canapes and fizz at the castle on the Domain I should have advised Jeremy and Dean to form a coalition.
“You blokes have so much in common, why are you fighting. Stadium, fish farming, native forest logging, I could go on, but I can’t think of anything you disagree on except who should be premier. Do us a favour, save us a fortune and SHARE THE BLOODY JOB.”
In the immortal words of the great Mr Eslake, “it’s pretty bad”. But not as bad as it could get. Look at what’s happening in the streets of Los Angeles. By comparison with the Angelenos, Tasmanians are a phlegmatic people, much put upon and possibly too slow to anger.
All right, I’m trying desperately to look for any redeeming factor in this political disaster. But over a lifetime of reporting in many jurisdictions I think the measure of a democracy isn’t how it functions in good times but how it survives (in that wonderful Tasmanian maritime phrase) “when the ship hits the span”.
In my youngest days as a reporter I saw how we somehow survived the catastrophic division of our capital city when the bridge went down. Not only was our capital city split asunder, but we even had a hotly contested ferry fiasco. Nothing really changes.
Our current disaster does not really see us as divided as we might be. Politically it seems to me over these past few days that our population is actually united in its disapproval and disappointment at what is on offer from both sides. Whether one or another of the Laborials succeed against the odds, will depend on their ability in six weeks to break the habits of decades and show some respect for the intelligence of the electorate and some financial responsibility for our future.
The good news is that change, although unlikely, can be a possibility. Italy has long been seen as the basket case of democracies having endured 69 governments in almost as many years. This week Australian newspapers were laughing at Tasmania’s mere four elections in seven years, calling us “the Italy of Australia”.
I don’t know if Governor Baker was holidaying in Italy last week, but if she was, who could blame her for staying away. My wayward son Dave is sailing the Med with his beautiful Italian girlfriend (it’s amore) and he certainly seems to have no intention of returning to our wintry crisis.
But he has condescended to report for my column:
Charles Wooley’s personal, underpaid correspondent in Italy here.
“We in Italy respond with a resounding “no, grazie” to being the analogy of Tasmania’s political instability.
“We have been happily governed by the steady conservative hand of Giorgia Meloni for nearly three years.
“There has been a strong display of support for our girl and her three-party, right-wing coalition.
“We’re on course to make it to 2027, finishing a parliamentary turn, a feat not achieved in Italy since Silvio Berlusconi was singing Bunga
Bunga.
“The next election should bring Meloni closer to majority government, ending Italy’s unstable run of 34 governments in less than half a century.
“So, it looks like Tassie will need to find another analogy. Or an intelligent and level-headed woman who won’t try to burn a mountain of cash to build a big shiny thing. Unlike the silly boys on either side of the aisle down there.”
– This is Dave Wooley reporting from an 83-foot yacht in the Ligurian Sea where I have a Negroni and a cigar to get back to.
Charles Wooley is a Tasmanian-based journalist
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