Wooley: Given the grim state of Tasmania’s finances, Winter would be wise to wait

It’s a fair bet things are more parlous than they seem after more than a decade of government ineptitude, warns Charles Wooley.

Given the grim state of Tasmania’s finances, Labor leader Dean Winter, centre, would be wise to avoid an early election, according to Charles Wooley. Picture: Chris Kidd

To begin with the bleeding obvious; a state election now would probably result in a change of government. The polls are conflicted but after a contested election campaign it would be hard to imagine Tasmanian voters rewarding the extraordinary bungling of the Bass Strait ferry disaster by conferring a further term on the Liberals.

That’s without even contemplating the eternally growing cost of the stadium imbroglio or fulminating about a host of disasters too many to list.

And who knows what’s coming next?

Tasmanians are slow to anger. We are a much put upon people and have long accepted systemic failures (often bipartisan) in health and education.

But the massive overspending on ship building in Scandinavia at the same time as forgetting to build adequate port facilities in Devonport is stupendous.

It has seen off a minister and challenged the faith of the most devout Liberals I know, especially those in the business community.

Given the grim state of Tasmania’s finances, Labor leader Dean Winter, would be wise to avoid an early election, according to Charles Wooley. Picture: Chris Kidd

Clearly Opposition Leader Dean Winter knows strategically how dire his inheritance would be should he right now ascend to the Treasury benches. Absorbing Saul Eslake’s grim assessment of our finances, wisely Dean has decided he doesn’t want Tasmanians to be forced to an early election after the collapse of the Jacqui Lambie Network agreement.

So, for all lofty appearances, Mr Winter only wants the government to sign a new deal with the discordant backbenchers “as quickly as possible … to secure business confidence”.

How wrong was I some columns back when I likened the good Dean to Shakespeare’s Cassius with “a lean and hungry look”. He is in fact a jolly decent chap, an honourable man, who is putting the stability of government and the good of the state over self-interest and political ambition.

One of the new Spirit of Tasmania vessels, which has become embroiled in controversy in recent weeks, on the docks in Finland. Picture: Janika Heikkonen

But there’s the rub: who in their right mind would want to take on the mountain of problems and disasters generated over more than a decade of government ineptitude?

It’s a fair bet that Mr Winter knows that things are even worse than they seem. As they always will be for a new government taking power after a long maladministration.

But unfairly the eternal quandary in politics is that after you have been in power for a short time the problems you inherit become your problems and your responsibility.

Embattled Treasurer Michael Ferguson who was forced to hand back his infrastructure portfolio earlier in the week over the bungled delivery of the Spirit of Tasmania vessels. Picture: Stephanie Dalton

The Albanese government now owns all the inflationary troubles inherited from Scott Morrison’s Liberal government. Plus a few extras of Albo’s own invention.

But what might toss out the Albanese government is clearly the cost-of-living crisis, which was not particularly of its making. Inflation is lower now than when federal Labor came to power, but it is an acutely painful condition, and voters will punish the government not for the affliction but for its failure to deliver a quick cure.

Peter Dutton meanwhile has blithely turned the page on all responsibility for the previous Liberal government’s ineptitudes and despite more than a decade in power his front bench is now behaving as if it really believes Albo generated all our economic problems from scratch the day he accepted the chalice of power.

Amazing isn’t it considering Liberal fingerprints must be all over that poisoned vessel of incumbency.

“We have inherited not just an economic black hole but a societal black hole and that is why we have to take unpopular decisions, including saying those with the broadest shoulders should be expected to carry the heaviest burden … short-term pain for long-term good.”

Don’t worry, Lower Sandy Bay. That’s not the economically levelling voice of Dean Winter having changed his mind about wresting power from the palsied limp grip of the Libs.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during his speech and press conference in the Rose Garden at 10 Downing Street on August 27, 2024 in London, England. The Prime Minister said "the business of politics will resume" when Parliament returns next week, "but it will not be business as usual" and the government will "get a grip" on the problems facing the UK. (Photo by Stefan Rousseau - WPA Pool/Getty Images)

Half a world away in the rose garden of No.10 Downing Street that was in fact Britain’s new Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer addressing his nation upon discovering things were even worse than he thought.

The new government, swept to power with a landslide victory, has discovered a $A43bn overspend.

“We have to be honest with people about the choices we face and how tough this will be.”

Promising to make the rich pay, the PM ominously warned: “Frankly, things will get worse before we get better.”

Choosing the rose garden made an instructive political point. That place last made headlines during the chaotic rule of Boris Johnson who infamously partied there with his staff during the Covid lockdowns.

Dean Winter is keeping his powder dry but if things fall apart here the way they did in the UK, he might have no choice but to step up, for the good of his people.

In power, from where should he deliver us the salutary news?

There is a confounding choice of catastrophic social and political landmarks.

From Macquarie Point to the LGH or the RHH. From the unready Devonport ferry berth to the Tasman Bridge at peak hour.

From the disgrace of Deloraine’s youth detention centre to the shame of the homeless sleeping in the streets and parks of our cities.

The emergent new premier, when his time comes around, as it surely will, has too many Liberal failures to choose from. But as his present reticence suggests, he knows that once in office every stuff-up of his predecessor will too soon become his own.

In that sense the art of politics is to wait and to strike the moment things have got so bad they can only get better.

And surely that time can’t be far off.

Charles Wooley is a Tasmanian-based journalist.