Talking Point: How Black Saturday changed everything

MIKE BROWN: Ten years on, lessons from Victoria’s tragedy — and Tasmania’s own — are put into practice every day

AFTERMATH: Fire devastated Kinglake in Victoria. Picture: CHANNEL 7 HELICOPTER

AS I look out through the smoky haze from our Eastern Shore home I’m reminded that many of you will today remember the anniversaries of the horrific Black Saturday and our own Black Tuesday fires.

I recall the evening of February 7, 2009. The Country Fire Authority had been warning Victorians of the expected extreme conditions for several days. A colleague in Victoria called, saying the fires were huge beyond belief and he fully expected there would be many deaths. I notified the minister and premier and recommended we respond with assistance straight away. Over the next few weeks more than 400 Tasmanian firefighters assisted with firefighting operations, incident management and post-fire research.

In one terrible afternoon in the Victorian Black Saturday fires, 173 lives were lost.

On the same day 42 years earlier Tasmania experienced our own horror afternoon and 64 Tasmanians died.

When I say firefighters I should include some context. Tasmania is the only jurisdiction that has fully integrated its fire services so rural and urban, volunteer and career operate as one. It has taken time to achieve, but has proven to be effective and efficient. Tasmania has developed effective relationships across TFS, Parks and Wildlife Service and Sustainable Timber Tasmania (Forestry). While the three organisations are very different in their day-to-day business, in fire management all work seamlessly, sharing incident management, equipment, training, radio communications and aerial resources.

Tasmanian firefighters and the TFS are highly respected across the country and beyond for their professionalism and work ethic, in firefighting and fire safety initiatives.

Fire services have been a victim of their own success. In 99.9 per cent of cases, a fire is reported promptly, the fire service arrives and the fire is put out.

However on the occasional days when fire danger ratings are elevated to extreme or catastrophic, like Black Saturday, Black Tuesday or our fires of January 4, 2013 (Dunalley/Bicheno/Lake Repulse/Montumana), no normal strategies work when relative humidity falls to single figures, wind gusts approach 100km/h and temperatures exceed 40 degrees. Fires in these conditions may spot with burning embers travelling 20km or more and timber fencing, decking or cladding burning like sheets of cardboard in the ultra-dry air.

Aircraft are often grounded, unable to take off in the high winds or very poor visibility. Putting firefighters or crews in front of the fire in such conditions is madness because there are just too many accounts of firefighter deaths in such conditions.

Bushfires have accounted for more than 800 deaths in Australia. Of these, 75 per cent were on the very few days when the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) exceeded 100 or into the catastrophic rating. Tasmania has only once recorded catastrophic in recent history (January 4, 2013 in Hobart). Black Tuesday (February 7, 1967) likely was similar but records were not as complete as they are now.

Following the Victorian Royal Commission into Black Saturday the whole Australian fire and emergency management industry heeded the recommendations, noting in particular the need for improved warnings and messaging as well as the primacy of life.

A national Prepare, Act, Survive strategy was developed along with the three levels of warnings: advice, watch and act, and emergency. There was recognition fire can exceed the old Forest Fire Danger Index of 100 and there was a new rating of catastrophic for an index of 100-plus.

Tasmania developed award-winning programs including Community Protection Plans and bushfire-ready neighbourhoods. Community awareness and responses as well as TFS’s preparedness in the current bushfire situation has demonstrated the value and success of these programs.

The fires across the state now mostly started from dry lightning. In my early career, lightning rarely featured as a cause of fire. Now (and in 2016 and 2013) it appears to be a much bigger contributor to fire starts in Tasmania.

Rain, cooler conditions and dew will eventually come. Let’s hope we don’t have any extreme-plus weather before then. Already I see the critics suggesting we should have larger air tankers, amphibious aircraft, more aircraft plus the Army mobilised.

Aircraft are a wonderful resource as eyes in the sky, for mapping, inserting crews, water delivery early in a fire’s development, spot fires and aerial backburning operations. Indeed I held a director’s position and the chair role on the National Aerial Firefighting Centre. However, aircraft cannot extinguish fires without prompt support from fire crews on the ground.

The traditional US approach was to throw every resource at the job, such as massive teams of private firefighters and support staff, parachuting in smoke-jumpers and using bigger and bigger aircraft (DC10s and 747s). This has not proven to be necessarily effective. The US still loses fires and often firefighter lives. The costs are astronomical and not sustainable.

I’ve presented at US conferences and I note the present approach encourages working with wildfire rather than waging war upon it. Fire professionals and researchers talk openly about a century of failed forest policy. Let’s not fall into that trap.

Continued focus on community awareness and action, strategic fuel reduction and best practice warning systems must be the priorities.

The TFS priorities for when fires burn out of control ensure moving away from firefighting when it’s futile and dangerous anyway, and prioritises distributing warnings, getting people out of the way, protecting vulnerable people and protecting critical infrastructure and assets important to the community. Firefighting will again be a priority but only when conditions allow.

These priorities developed by TFS after Black Saturday were extensively tested during the summer of 2013 and proved successful because no lives were lost and divisional commanders had some rationale and guidance to assist their decision-making.

Finally to all of my mates at TFS (and Parks and Forestry); day and night I hear your croaky voices and see your tired faces. I can understand your challenges in working at the fire front and needing to then drop back to protect communities, only to have your hard work undone as your control lines are so often breached. I also feel your pain in trying to ensure the public is well informed with appropriate warnings while endeavouring to not over-warn and create warning fatigue. You’re all doing an awesome job under very difficult conditions. I join the rest of Tasmania in thanking you and your families.

Mike Brown AM AFSM worked for the Tasmania Fire Service for 39 years, including as Chief Officer 2009-2016. He has Emergency Management qualifications from Charles Sturt University, is a graduate of FEMA US National Fire Academy Executive Fire Officer Program, member of the Institute of Fire Engineers, was a director of the Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council and chair, National Aerial Firefighting Centre.