TALKING POINT: Did Gutwein, White jump the gun on the tally room stage?

Peter Gutwein’s speech appeared to jump the gun by declaring a majority government had been secured. At this stage, it is not guaranteed, writes political insider Cath Hughes. LATEST >>

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TASMANIA is fortunate to have the fine tradition of the live post-election Tally Room.

The Tally Room is theatre. The massive screen on which the progressive, yet painfully slow, count appears, dominates the room as if a backdrop to a stage upon which we witness the going down of the sun upon one parliament and the rising of another.

Lines are rehearsed, tried out on unsuspecting bystanders, tweaked and revised as backstage scrutineers update the earpieces of candidates and commentators alike as the count continues, confirming or challenging positions taken thus far.

Rebecca White concedes. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Richard Jupe

Finally, the performance culminates in the party leaders’ soliloquies.

Most seats have not been decided at the time these speeches are made, so it is not surprising a consistent theme for both victorious and conceding leaders is telling the electorate they have “been heard” and “listened to”.

Yet it is fascinating to hear the reinterpretations of the voters’ voice when the count remains ongoing. Commentators and more significantly, leaders revert to type by saying “we’ve heard you, now let us tell you what you meant”.

Despite the count yet to be finalised, it is clear Tasmanians have predominantly returned a status quo parliament, but with significant shifts in dynamic.

Given this, the Tally Room speech by Labor Leader Bec White reflected a mystifying interpretation of the results. While it was clear Labor could not claim a majority, nobody at this stage can rule out a possible minority situation with the count expected to go down to the wire in at least one electorate.

Conceding seems not only defeatist but also pre-emptive. This early concession sends the message that in the event of a minority government result, Labor will not even seek to secure the Treasury benches on behalf of the Tasmanians who voted for them in good faith.

Similarly, Mr Gutwein’s speech appeared to jump the gun by declaring a majority government had been secured.

At this stage, it is not guaranteed that the bare-minimum of the wafer-thin 13-seat majority salivated over by the majority-hungry Premier has been reached by the Liberals.

The confected urgency by the Liberals to go to the polls early in a blatant attempt to exploit Tasmanians’ post-pandemic goodwill and to tighten the government’s grip on power in the Lower House clearly did not intimidate Tasmanians as hoped.

The electorate may just have called their bluff on this oh-so-precious govern in majority or not at all tantrum.

Premier Peter Gutwein arrives inside the tally room alongside wife Amanda and children Finn and Millie as he celebrates the Liberal party's win during the Tasmania state election 2021. Picture: Zak simmonds

This raises interesting questions for the new parliament, as well as placing both Mr Gutwein and Ms White in personal conundrums of their own making.

While some Tasmanians have acclaimed loudly their support for the caretaker premier in his electorate, the voice is more muted when it comes to the rest of the Liberal team, resulting in a statewide decrease for the party.

Will the remainder of the Liberal team fancy their longevity chances should Mr Gutwein resign as leader? If he was to move to the backbench how comfortable would that make any successor? And how betrayed would those 30,000-odd Bass voters who voted for him feel?

Should the Liberals secure a majority, the question of who is speaker could erode that majority to 12 seats.

The muted endorsement of the status quo is shared with Labor, where the electorate appears to be saying that other than a couple of rearrangements of the deckchairs, whether the good ship Labor becomes the Titanic or not is up to those MPs. Can Ms White consider moving a no-confidence motion in her own party – which voting to provide confidence in the Liberals is tantamount to? Or does she abrogate leadership qualities by moving to the backbench?

The swing to the Greens and independents possibly voices the loudest message with a clear subtext that voters don’t care for scare tactics.

An empty tally room prior to the counting of votes during the Tasmania state election 2021.

At the time of writing the count continues. It will not be over until the appropriately sized Tally Room has sung.

And then we may truly get to assess the mettle of the re-elected leaders, and gauge whether they are committed to govern in the best interests of Tasmanians rather than the vested interests of their respective parties.

Cath Hughes is a PhD candidate and a former chief of staff to the Tasmanian Greens MPs.