Battlelines now drawn

The election battlelines have been drawn — the campaign will be a contest fought on taxes, at least if the Coalition has its way.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg hands down the Federal Budget.

THE election battlelines have been drawn — the campaign will be a contest fought on taxes, at least if the Coalition has its way.

Not only did Treasurer Josh Frydenberg use his first (and, he hopes, not his last) Budget last night to unveil the biggest personal income tax cuts in more than a decade, but he peppered his speech with a series of less-than-subtle reminders that Labor’s alternative plan would be funded by “increasing taxes”.

Expect to hear this line many more times between now and either May 11 or 18, when Australia will head to the ballot box for an election that all the opinion polls — and bookies — suggest is now very much Labor leader Bill Shorten’s to lose.

MORE BUDGET:

WORLD OF PROMISES FROM SWEET SMELL OF EXCESS

COALITION EYES SQUARELY ON LOOMING POLL

ROADS AND JOBS TO WOO STATE’S VOTERS

YOUR FIVE-MINUTE GUIDE TO BUDGET 2019

BUDGET WINNERS AND LOSERS

HOW THE BUDGET WILL AFFECT YOU

BUDGET SPEECH IN FULL

It’s a good strategy. Labor is taking a massive risk in ending the generous tax breaks relating to negative gearing for property investors and franked dividends for retirees. While Mr Shorten makes a believable argument as to why he wants to make those changes, the fact is both policies will leave many voters worse off. And the simple truth is that most of the swinging voters vital to any victory cast their ballot based on how the policies will affect them personally.

On the other hand, Mr Frydenberg was able to stand in the Federal Parliament last night and promise that 10 million taxpayers would benefit by up to $1080 a year from his income tax cuts that — importantly — would apply to the current financial year. That means, should the Coalition be returned, you’ll get the cash after you submit your tax return after July 1 — “in 13 weeks’ time,” as Mr Frybenberg crowed. He was also able to further announce plans to cut the 32.5 per cent income tax rate to 30 per cent from mid-2024 — meaning that 94 per cent of taxpayers would pay no more than 30 cents in the dollar from that time.

“Unlike those opposite,” Mr Frydenberg said of Labor, “we believe there should be limits on the amount you are taxed.”

Them’s fighting words. But the other big revelation was that there is now a $7.1 billion surplus forecast for next year — and that’s cash Mr Shorten can now throw at his own election pitch that he will start to unveil in his Budget reply speech tomorrow. His first move will likely be to match or better the Frydenberg tax cuts.

For Tasmania, the Budget essentially confirmed the announcements already made in the phoney election campaign that has been under way for the past few months. There were no obvious further surprises, good or bad. The biggest Tasmanian project that was specifically mentioned was the $210 million for “Roads of Strategic Importance” that was revealed in Monday’s Mercury — cash that includes $130 million for a much-needed upgrade of the congested highway between Sorell and Hobart.

Add to all that a few other small initiatives and that’s it specifically for Tassie. This was, however, a Budget delivered almost literally on the eve of an election campaign. Such documents rarely include previously unannounced specific funding promises for individual electorates — instead focusing on the big-hit nationwide initiatives that target specific groups, as last night’s Budget did for low and middle class workers, young people, women, small business and seniors.

There is little doubt that Coalition strategists are eyeing off the three Labor-held Tasmanian seats it has a chance in: Bass, Braddon and Lyons. There will be plenty of promises up their sleeves to roll out as Mr Morrison and Mr Frydenberg visit Tassie over the next four or five weeks. That’s because if the Coalition fail to win any of those three seats then this first Frydenberg Budget will also be the last. Let the battle begin.