Western Sydney University highlights battleground seats that will win the election
Battleground seats in Western Sydney will be the key to deciding the Albanese government’s fate, and voters already feel like they’re getting a dud deal.
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Battleground seats in Western Sydney will be the key to deciding the Albanese government’s fate as cost of living and housing affordability remain the key concerns in the region, a new report has found.
About 10 per cent of votes in the upcoming federal election on May 3 will come from the west, but many residents in the region feel they are not receiving their fair share of government funding and services.
An analysis by Western Sydney University executive director Professor Andy Marks and Strategy and delivery manager Tom Nance, shows key seats Macarthur and Werriwa, both held by Labor MPs Anne Stanley and Mike Freelander, respectively, will be critical in deciding the election.
Other key deciding seats include Fowler, held by independent MP Dai Le, and Reid and Paramatta, held by Labor MPs Sally Sitou and Andrew Charlton.
“Werriwa, retained by Labor at the last poll, has been broadly trending Liberal since the 2010 election and is at risk for Labor,” Prof Marks said.
Both Werriwa and Macarthur contain a significant portion of southwest Sydney’s mortgage belt.
“This voting bloc is where rates and mortgage stress are very high,” he added.
“Cost of living will be the dominant issue in terms of determining votes in those seats in particular.”
The report highlighted that frustration has grown in Macarthur over the lack of rail linkages to Western Sydney Airport, with residents fearing they will miss out the economic and social dividends it will bring.
This includes cynicism from voters around the $1bn bipartisan rail corridor commitment, which does not see a “millimetre of track laid”.
“I don’t think that we can discount there being a very intense contest in Macarthur, which takes in Campbelltown and surrounds,” Prof Marks said.
Traditionally, Werriwa and Macarthur’s margins of 5.3 per cent and 9.8 per cent respectively would be considered safe, but in times of increased voter unrest, the coalition will believe they have a real chance, the report said.
The analysis also found the outer Western Sydney electorate of Macquarie, held by Labor MP Susan Templeman, will provide a snapshot of national trends.
The area encompasses Liberal strongholds across the Hawkesbury, with Labor and the Greens holding sway in mid and upper areas of the Blue Mountains.
“It’s a good representation of voter sentiment,” Prof Marks said.
“Polling around Macquarie ahead of the election is something that we’ll be watching very closely.”
Prof Marks said in both outer southwestern and northwestern Sydney there had been a “very strong” vote for minor parties and independents.
“At the last poll this has been at the expense of the Greens who have experienced a dip in support.
“We saw very strong voting patterns towards One Nation and Palmer United in the last federal election.
“We don’t know at this stage whether that support will transfer to his new party Trumpet of Patriots.”
Other findings showed the humanitarian crisis and conflict in Gaza, Lebanon and surrounds had become a focal point for some community movements in Western Sydney.
“There is a candidate running on an Islamic ticket, which is seeking to draw attention to Gaza and the middle east,” Prof Marks said.
“Those candidates are highly unlikely to take the seat outright. However, they will affect preference votes.”
Prof Marks said the report highlighted the saying that “all politics is local” applies strongly to Western Sydney.
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