Greens winning phony war by tapping into Gen Z ‘anger’ over housing crisis

Gen Z ‘anger’ over negative gearing and the great Australian dream of owning a home is being exploited by the Greens in their political point scoring against the Prime Minister.

“It’s the politics of optics” – that’s the consensus political experts have on the housing stoush that played out in the Senate last week and that has eclipsed what would have been an otherwise stellar week for Anthony Albanese.

Inflation is falling, petrol is finally cheaper and dodgy supermarkets are in for more brutal punishments for price gouging struggling Australians, but what could have been two good headlines for the government were replaced by a scare campaign that hits close for many Australians: Albo could be coming for your investment property.

As the week drew to a close, Albanese shifted from leaving the door open on negative gearing reform to downplaying its benefits on the housing crisis.

Housing supply is my focus, he maintained, and according to industry experts, he is right.

Without more housing supply, the Australian dream of owning a home is dead but with construction restraints and labour shortages putting a break on the housing pipeline, all politicians can do is sell policies that will do little to shift the dial.

The race to the next election is not about building more houses, it’s about who can convince the voter they care more about the housing crisis.

The race to the next election is not about building more houses, it’s about who can convince the voter they care more about the housing crisis. Picture: NewsWire/Max Mason-Hubers

And currently winning at this ploy are the Greens, whose demands of negative gearing reform and rental caps are tapping into the anger of Gen Z voters.

The result is one where Anthony Albanese finds himself in the undesirable position where the Greens are dictating the government’s policy on an issue that matters most to everyday Australians.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: NewsWire/Martin Ollman

“It’s emblematic of Canberra, all they care about is scoring political punches,” Redbridge’s Kos Samaras says of the housing debate.

“What we see in our research groups is cynicism towards Canberra, including Greens, is at record levels.

“Older Millennials are getting tired of the posturing, but it’s working on Gen Z.”

Mr Samaras says the Greens are trying to “hoover up as much of the young angry cohort as they can” with demands of rental caps and negative gearing reform.

This was the party’s strategy on the Gaza conflict and Labor’s fight with the CFMEU, and it has now extended to their housing policy.

“They are pitching to the future shock generation, Gen Z, who grew up in a middle class family, went to independent schools, were told to study hard and your life will be sweet,” he said.

“That generation has just realised that isn’t true.”

Last week the Greens stalled Labor’s shared equity scheme in the senate by postponing the bill for another two months.

It was a rehash of the same tactics they used to delay the Housing Australia Future Fund.

Revelations this week that the Treasury was modelling potential negative gearing policies were welcomed by the Greens, with claims it was the minor party fighting for the rights of struggling Australians who pushed Labor into the politically contentious territory.

“This kind of reform could start to fix the housing crisis and see Labor’s weak housing bill pass the Senate,” leader Adam Bandt declared.

Greens leader Adam Bandt. Picture: NewsWire/Martin Ollman

But will turning the biggest concern for most Australians into “class warfare” pay off for the minor party?

Urban Taskforce’s Tom Forrest doesn’t think so.

“They are going into class warfare and are frankly against anyone who happens to have invested in a second house,” he says.

“There are a number of ethnic communities who own a home as a form of principal investment.”

The Greens are at risk of losing all of those Australians if they continue their narrative on negative gearing, and so is Labor if they choose to give into their demands, Mr Forrest says.

But he remains sceptical that the government will actually reform negative gearing, having lost two elections on the issue already.

“Albanese has learnt from the bitter experience of his colleagues … you won’t see movement from Anthony Albanese on these matters,” he said.

Mr Forrest also says capping or abolishing the ability for Australians to negatively gear a home will “barely move the dial on affordability”.

One political expert says Labor is “flying a kite” on negative gearing to test if voters are willing to support the proposal they overwhelmingly rejected in 2019. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

Monash University political expert Zareh Ghazarian disagrees; he speculates that Labor’s decision to once again flirt with negative gearing is a way of “nullifying housing” as a major factor that differentiates Labor from Greens and independents.

“The shift we are seeing at the national level is this sense that Labor has really been taking hard hits in opinion polls on housing. This is one way they are trying to change that,” he says.

“Greens have been very strong on housing. This is a way of Labor mitigating the electoral support leaking to independents and Greens and other parties.”

It can also be one way of securing their future support from the crossbench as a minority government starts to look more and more likely.

Wentworth Teal Allegra Spender wants every tax under the microscope and reforms that will “tilt the tax system towards home ownership for those locked out”.

Mackellar MP Dr Sophie Scamps and Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel also called for negative gearing to be considered.

“Labor is fairly confident that the polls, as they are going, will mean it won’t win the next election as a majority government. It’s a way to get a jump on Coalition and hold onto crossbench support,” Mr Ghazarian says.

He adds that Labor is “flying a kite” on negative gearing to test if voters are willing to support the proposal they overwhelmingly rejected in 2019 under then leader Bill Shorten.

“2019 was prior to Covid, prior to significant inflation jumps,” he says.

“They are flying the policy kite and seeing what the response is and making a much more informed decision.

“Negative gearing hasn’t worked out for Labor in the past but, for them to go back into it again, it’s going to be a very interesting dynamic to the election campaign.”

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Originally published as Greens winning phony war by tapping into Gen Z ‘anger’ over housing crisis