Darwin housing market forecast to lead the nation with price hikes of 12 to 16 per cent in 2026
Darwin’s housing market is forecast to lead the nation in 2026. Find out how much your property is expected to increase in value.
Darwin’s housing market is forecast to lead the nation with price hikes of 12 to 16 per cent in 2026.
SQM Research’s annual Housing Boom and Bust Report tipped another year of huge growth for the Top End, with Darwin equal top-ranked with Perth among four capitals expected to outperform the big southern cities.
The report released Tuesday, highlighted NT’s unique economic drivers and housing market dynamics fuelling the boom.
SQM’s base scenario forecast a national average rise of 6 to 10 per cent across dwellings in all capital cities in 2026, with Brisbane and Adelaide also outperforming, up 10-15 and 10-14 per cent respectively.
By contrast, prices in Sydney would rise by 3 to 6 per cent, and 4 to 7 per cent in Melbourne.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said Darwin’s buoyant property market was underpinned by a solid economic foundation, strong first-home buyer activity, and tight supply.
Mr Christopher acknowledged Darwin’s historical ties to the resources sector but highlighted new economic drivers.
“Darwin’s housing ups and downs still track the minerals and energy swings pretty closely,” he said.
He said the Barossa gas project was set to be a game-changer.
Turning to the housing market itself, Mr Christopher reflected on 2025’s rebound of up to 16 per cent price growth, exceeding the predicted 8 per cent uplift.
He said falling listings and low vacancy rates were “classic signs of a market gearing up for more upside”, creating a “seller’s edge heading into 2026”.
First-home buyers were expected to be a key sales driver, with Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showing the cohort made up a substantial 43 per cent of owner-occupier loan commitments in the NT, significantly higher than the national average, thanks to strong government support and lower entry prices.
Mr Christopher himself offered a more conservative, yet still optimistic, personal outlook outside the report’s base scenario.
“I’m eyeing 5 to 8 per cent gains in Darwin, fuelled by Barossa jobs and strong wages, assuming no big economic hiccups.
“This rise will also certainly be driven by first-home buyers. If anything, the risks are on the upside at this point in time rather than the downside of our forecasts.”
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Originally published as Darwin housing market forecast to lead the nation with price hikes of 12 to 16 per cent in 2026
