New poll reveals shock result for Teal MPs
Disappointed voters are turning on the rockstar independent MPs - see where the support is going in our exclusive new poll.
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Exclusive: Four of the six Teal MPs are in danger of losing on the back of a collapse in Greens and Labor support in their seats and the unpopularity of Climate 200 and its founder Simon Holmes a Court.
A new poll has found that while the primary vote of the independent MP in the wealthy areas of Sydney, Melbourne and Perth has held up since 2022, they are facing a two-candidate preferred swing of 5 per cent because support for the Greens and Labor is significantly down.
It found that while the Liberal Party and Teal Independents are reasonably popular in these electorates, their voters have a highly unfavourable view of the ALP and Greens as well as Climate 200 and its convener the wealthy businessman Simon Holmes a Court.
A clear majority – 54 per cent – of these voters also say they would oppose their MP working with the Greens to back an Albanese-Labor minority government.
The poll was conducted last week in the seats of Curtin in WA, Goldstein and Kooyong in Victoria and Wentworth, Mackellar and Warringah in NSW by Freshwater Strategies, exclusively for News Corp.
It found the Liberal Party’s candidates lead across the six seats with an average two-candidate preferred vote of 51 per cent to 49 per cent to the Teals.
If this result were to be replicated at the election it would see the Liberals regain Curtin from Kate Chaney, Kooyong from Monique Ryan, Goldstein from Zoe Daniel and Mackellar from Sophie Scamps.
It also means that unless Climate 200 can expand its footprint it risks being left with just Allegra Spender in Wentworth and Zali Steggall in Warringah.
Voters were evenly split on who they would prefer as Prime Minister with 39 per cent opting for Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton.
But at 47 per cent, slightly less than half the voters said they would not support their MP backing an Albanese Labor Government compared to 42 per cent said they should.
Only 28 per cent said their MP should work with the Greens to back an Albanese Government.
Asked who their MP should support in the event of a hung parliament, 41 per cent agreed it should be the party with the largest number of seats, compared to 30 per cent who disagreed.
Across the seats polled the average Teal primary vote was unchanged from 2022 on 33 per cent while the Liberals primary was up two points to 41 per cent.
In contrast, Labor had dropped 6 per cent and Greens 2 per cent leaving them tied on 7 per cent a piece.
Freshwater director Mike Turner said the poll showed voters’ priorities had changed radically even in these inner-city ‘professional ‘Teal seats’ where many will be doing it tough with mortgage stress and declining living standards.
“This may be causing the Teal Independents severe issues maintaining a coherent coalition of voters,” Dr Turner said.
He said at 33 per cent reducing the cost of living was the top priority for Teal seat voters followed by better economic management at 15 per cent and improving healthcare 13 per cent.
“Taking action on climate change is only the fourth most cited concern, chosen by just 11 per cent and even for Teal supporters, action on climate is a distant second priority on 18 per cent compared to reducing the cost of living 26 per cent.”
Dr Turner said community support for the Teal Independents has waned “significantly” since the last election.
“Although Teal MPs have an average net approval of +1, this figure has dropped significantly since 2022, when most of them would have registered net approvals in the low-to-mid 20s,” he said.
“Their decline in popularity may have been accelerated, in part, by their association with their backers, Climate 200 and Simon Holmes a Court, both of whom average net negative approval with ‘Teal seat’ voters of -7 and -18 respectively.”
He said with polling showing an average two-candidate-preferred swing of 5 per cent away from the Teals, towards the Liberals, “if an election were held today, then around four of the six seats currently held by Teal Independents would be narrowly won by Liberal candidates.
“These seats include; Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong and Mackellar. They are very much in play.”
The survey of 830 voters in Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong, Mackellar, Warringah, and Wentworth was undertaken on 5-7 March 2025.
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Originally published as New poll reveals shock result for Teal MPs
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