‘Game changing’ Voice poll puts Tasmania in ‘no’ camp in latest blow to referendum chances

New polling has revealed that Tasmanians have joined their mainland counterparts in WA and Queensland in turning against the Voice to Parliament referendum, in what “no” campaign sources are calling a “game changer”.

New polling has revealed that Tasmanians have joined their mainland counterparts in WA and Queensland in turning against the Voice to Parliament referendum, in what “no” campaign sources are calling a “game changer”.

It comes as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travels to Adelaide to formally announce the date of the referendum vote, widely expected to be October 14.

The poll, conducted by Insightfully for the Institute of Public Affairs, asked 1156 Tasmanian voters how they intended to vote on the referendum, using the official question that will be put to Australians on ballot papers.

The polling found a majority 53 per cent of Tasmanians intended to vote “no”, with just 42 per cent indicating a likely “yes” vote.

Five per cent were undecided.

Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff in Hobart. Picture: Chris Kidd

The results also found that Tasmanians in every age group and all federal electorates were more likely than not to vote “no”.

The swing against the referendum in Tasmania significantly raises the stakes for pro-referendum campaigners, who have to secure a majority of voters in a majority of states to change the constitution.

PM Anthony Albanese will announce the date of the Voice referendum in South Australia. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Sam Ruttyn

Earlier this month Newspoll analysis found that Queensland and WA were also firmly in the “no” camp, meaning that if the numbers held through polling day the “yes” campaign would need to secure Tasmania as well as South Australia, Victoria, and NSW in order to change the constitution.

The same polling showed Victoria tied at 44-44 and NSW slightly in the “yes” camp” at 45-42.

Shadow Indigenous Australians minister Jacinta Nampijinpa Price said: “This latest research from Tasmania is just more evidence of the tragic division the Voice is causing across the country”.

“It’s becoming clearer to more and more Australians, from one end of the country to the other, that voting ‘no’ is the only way to keep us united.

“When will the PM and Yes23 be honest with the Australian people?

“If the Voice will unify Australia, as they claim, why do more than half of all Tasmanians now plan to vote ‘no’?”

Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. Picture: Kevin Farmer

Another campaign source said: “This is the first time the No campaign has been ahead in Tasmania, and that’s a real game changer in this referendum.”

“Yes23 thought they had Tasmania in the bag, so were very happy to take Tasmanians for granted.

“They thought they could get away without a serious campaign in Tasmania while they’ve been trying to stem the bleeding South Australia.”

“This has meant the No campaign’s digital messaging has had clear air to take hold.”

Originally published as ‘Game changing’ Voice poll puts Tasmania in ‘no’ camp in latest blow to referendum chances