Joe Hildebrand: Pope Francis’ death another cruel twist of fate for Peter Dutton

It is impossible to analyse the election without looking at the effect such a massive and profound global event will have on it, writes Joe Hildebrand.

It was Peter Dutton who was depicted praying for divine intervention over Easter, and so it seems particularly cruel that Anthony Albanese is the one who received it.

News of the death of Pope Francis last night came as a devastating blow to the world’s one billion Catholics, of whom I am one.

In fact Francis was one of the reasons I got confirmed as a Catholic shortly after his ascension more than a decade ago. He reaffirmed my faith in the church at a time when many people’s faith was being sorely tested.

I say all this only to stress that I am in no way being glib about the death of Francis, whom I believe is the best Pope we have had in more than half a century.

But this is an election analysis and it is impossible to analyse the election without looking at the effect such a massive and profound global event will have on it.

The first thing that cannot be emphasised enough is that time is running out for the Coalition to turn its fortunes around.

Peter Dutton leaves St Mary’s Cathedral in Sydney following a special mass held after the death of Pope Francis. Picture: Richard Dobson

Prepoll voting opened today and I wrote yesterday that the Australian Electoral Commission and Australian National University predicted between a third and half of voters would vote early.

I have since been told by a senior Labor source that they expect it to be more than half — an astonishing and unprecedented event in Australian political history.

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If true, it means the majority of voters will have cast their ballots before voting even opens on May 3.

And that means the window Peter Dutton has to make up ground is not just narrowing every day, but every day he has to make up even more ground to account for the votes cast when the Coalition was at its low ebb.

Think of it as compound interest.

Anthony Albanese paid tribute to Pope Francis today. Picture: Mark Stewart

And compounding the problem is that more than half of Australia is on school holidays this week and the whole country of course has Easter and Anzac Day holidays, meaning they were probably likely to have only half an eye on the news.

The Pontiff’s incredibly poetic passing just after a final appearance on Easter Sunday has of course changed all that, but it has also sucked all the oxygen out of the election campaign.

And this makes it even harder for Dutton and the Coalition to get clear air for their messaging in the hope of changing voters’ minds.

It is another cruel twist of fate for the Opposition Leader but at least not as cruel as the one suffered by the Holy Father.

Originally published as Joe Hildebrand: Pope Francis’ death another cruel twist of fate for Peter Dutton