Doomsday predictions of climate change risk warns hundreds of Australians could die from heat-related ailments
Property values could dive by up to $500 billion as homes become uninsurable due to worsening weather, a frightening new government report warns.
Property values could dive by up to $500 billion by 2050 as homes become uninsurable and floods, cyclones and bushfires lay siege to Australia, according to a grim new climate risk assessment.
Australia’s first national climate risk assessment, released today by the Albanese Government, has outlined a grim prediction of “cascading, compounding and concurrent” risks if leaders fail to act on climate change.
It said rising sea levels, floods, cyclones, heatwaves, droughts and bushfires are set to hit Australia more frequently, increasing heat-related deaths, sending insurance premiums through the roof.
The report outlined a doomsday scenario of over a thousand heat-related deaths in Sydney and Melbourne alone if political leaders fail to act on climate change.
The assessment aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of Australia’s current and future climate risks and will inform the government’s new national emissions reduction target for 2035.
Property values to be hit
Extreme weather events are set to see insurance losses explode prompting an increase in premiums according to the report that insists it’s not too late for the world to act.
Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said many Australians will find the warnings of floods, cyclones, bushfires and deaths in the report “confronting”.
“Many Australians will find this report confronting. I don’t think many Australians would be particularly surprised that climate change is and will have an impact on Australia,’’ he said.
“The report makes clear that insurance will become increasingly a challenge, both in terms of affordability and availability, and that will have flow on effects.”
Risks in Sydney and Melbourne
The report includes a stunning graph that outlines the projected increase in heat related deaths in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Townsville and Darwin.
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For example, in Sydney, heat-related deaths will increase by 100 per cent under a projected increase in temperatures of 1.5 degrees.
However, if temperatures rise by 3 degrees, those death projections could rise by up to 450 per cent.
The national assessment considers different global warming levels that are likely to be reached by 2050 and long term by 2090 and are based on increases in temperature of 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees and 3 degrees respectively.
But the most sobering predictions relate to the mortality risk from heatwaves if the world fails to act, contributing to up to 355 excess deaths in Melbourne alone.
At +1.5C of global warming, heat-related mortality rises by 60 per cent in Melbourne, while at +3.0C of global warming, heat-related mortality rises by 259 per cent in Melbourne.
In Sydney, the risk to health from heat is heightened particularly in western Sydney and west of the Great Dividing Range.
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Heatwaves are the deadliest natural hazard in Australia. At +1.5C of global warming, heat-related mortality rises by 103 per cent in Sydney.
At +3.0C of global warming, heat-related mortality rises by 444 per cent in Sydney, taking the current number of deaths from around 100 to an estimated 450 deaths each year.
While Sydney currently experiences 31 days per year with coastal flooding, at +1.5C of global warming, the number of coastal flood days in Sydney could increase to 85 days a year.
The document even claims that at +3.0C of global warming by 2090, the number of coastal flood days could increase to more than 300 days a year.
Urban areas with increasing exposure to coastal flooding include Darlinghurst, Haymarket, Millers Point, Kogarah, Double Bay and Darling Point in Sydney.
Brisbane
Sea level rise could also pose a significant risk to coastal communities throughout Queensland, including Brisbane and southeast Queensland according to the climate risk assessment.
At +1.5C of global warming the number of coastal flood days in Brisbane could increase to 86 days a year and at +3.0C of global warming the number of coastal flood days in Brisbane could increase to 314 days a year.
Adelaide and Perth
The number of severe and extreme heatwave days in South Australia could increase from approximately 3 days under current global warming levels to 10 days +3.0C.
Low lying urban areas of Perth like Fremantle are at high risk from sea level rise, currently experiencing 3 days per year of coastal flooding.
At +1.5C of global warming with 0.14m of sea level rise, the number of coastal flood days in Fremantle could increase to 11 days a year.
At +3.0C of global warming by 2090 with 0.54m of sea level rise, the number of coastal flood days in Fremantle could increase to 206 days a year.
Darwin
Darwin currently experiences 9 days per year with coastal flooding.
At +1.5C of global warming, the number of coastal flood days in Darwin could increase to 19 days a year. At +3.0C of global warming by 2090, the number of coastal flood days in Darwin could increase to 72 days a year.
Risk across Australia
All parts of Australia are at risk from rising temperature, northern Australia is likely to experience escalating challenges as the global temperature rises putting pressure on emergency responders.
Outer suburban areas stand out as “watch points” that are particularly susceptible to adverse events due to their location and demographics.
“Extreme heat, floods, bushfires, poor air quality and communicable diseases will escalate health risks,’’ the document states.
“Those with pre-existing health conditions, including mental ill health, are most at risk.
“This includes the very young and our older populations. People who work outdoors will also be at increased risk.”
“Sea level rise and increased coastal hazards will significantly impact coastal communities and cities,’’ it continues.
“By 2050, the number of coastal communities located in high and very high risk areas nationally will increase.
“If populations remained as they are today, this would equate to 1.5 million people living in areas that will experience sea level rise and coastal flooding risks by 2050.”
Mr Bowen said Australians were already living with the consequences of climate change today but “it’s clear every degree of warming we prevent now will help future generations avoid the worst impacts in years to come.”
“After a decade of denial and delay, we are acting on climate change – and it’s working.
Emissions are coming down, there is record investment in clean energy and we’re working
alongside communities to respond and adapt to the impacts,’’ he said.
“Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment and our National Adaptation Plan are a
road map to address the unavoidable impacts of climate change, to build a more resilient
country for all communities, regions and industries.”
Speaking in Canberra, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said that the pattern of natural disasters that Australians are used to experiencing is set to change.
“There isn’t an Australian community that is not impacted by climate change going forward, and there isn’t an Australian individual for whom those impacts might be real and material,’’ he said.
“But it’s not too late to avoid the worst impacts.
“So at a time when the political debate is focused on the cost of action, both real and imagined, this report is a reminder, if we needed one ever, the cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action.
“Put it another way, it’s a document that reminds us of the why when it comes to climate action.
“One thing that is very clear for this climate assessment is that our whole country has a lot at stake that every Australian, regardless of where they live.
“But the report does make clear that some communities are at risk. Those who live in the office, others in rural and regional Australia, and those who live in northern Australia.
“Those that say climate change only matters in the inner cities should read this report and reflect on that.”
Originally published as Doomsday predictions of climate change risk warns hundreds of Australians could die from heat-related ailments
