Revealed: Statisticians failed to predict 135,500 new arrivals to Queensland after pandemic

The surging population into the Gold Coast and Queensland was completely missed by the State - and now it’s trying to catch up. See how

The state budget told us everything about how Labor and LNP will approach the October poll. It also contained a bombshell statistic about population growth neither party can ignore.

When Treasurer Cameron Dick began his media briefing in the budget lock-up, he said: “This is a new government as you know, a new government with a new approach – and I think this budget demonstrates that.”

So that translates on the ground to Labor putting up corflutes showing only Premier Steven Miles and not his long serving predecessor Annastacia Palaszczuk.

Opposition Coast frontbencher Ros Bates, just hours later, in her media release, wrote: “The Palaszczuk-Miles Government doesn’t care about Mudgeeraba.”

So expect the LNP on polling day to put up corflutes featuring Ms Palaszczuk with the slogan “kick Labor out of the door” – even though the long serving leader quit before Christmas.

Queensland Treasurer Cameron Dick delivers the 2024-25 State Budget, at Parliament House. Photo: Dan Peled / NewsWire.

But the back to the budget, and the heart of it, where Mr Dick explained the challenge created “extraordinary impact of population growth.”

He then produced a truly extraordinary graph.

“We’ve definitely had a population explosion in Queensland. We’ve been going through and maybe still going through the biggest influx of people that our state has ever seen,” he said.

The most recent 12 months data showed a population increase of 144,000 driven by interstate and international migration.

What the graph showed was how the Commonwealth got the forecasts wrong. Back in 2014-15, the graph showed how federal researchers over-estimated growth.

“From Covid onwards, population growth dramatically exceeded the budget forecasts,” Mr Dick said.

State Budget information showing population growth for Queensland.

Across the three years to 2023-24, Queensland population growth exceeded budget forecasts by 135,500 people, he added.

“That is a city the size of Mackay, that no-one saw coming that we simply would not factor into our planning for growth and that we did not budget for,” Mr Dick said.

“That’s not Queensland Treasury’s fault, we relied on the Federal Government’s estimates. We now have to play catch up. We have to accelerate out infrastructure spend, we have to significantly increase our investment in frontline services faster than we normally would.”

The consensus is this growth will moderate on the back of the federal government’s tougher migration strategies on overseas migration for the “remainder of the forward estimates”.

The view from within Gold Coast City Council, which must plan for the growth, is the city will meet its one million population target well before 2046.

The M1 or Pacific Motorway and congestion at the Helensvale exit. This photograph is from a Coomera Connector business study.

As early as the late 2030s and almost certainly the early 2040s.

The Labor government brands its budget “the big build”. A council insider says this is a key promise the next government, whether Labor or the LNP, must commit to in the long term.

“The big build isn’t over a few budgets but a few decades. It’s got to be sustained,” the insider added.

This is why with the State election our council leaders want traffic congestion busting projects like light rail and Coomera Connector not to stall. Are voters on the same track?

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Originally published as Revealed: Statisticians failed to predict 135,500 new arrivals to Queensland after pandemic