LNP insiders say why the vote numbers show Cameron Caldwell winning Fadden by election

A clear favourite to win preselection for the federal Coast seat of Fadden has emerged, according to several senior LNP party strategists.

Cameron Caldwell is the clear favourite to win preselection for the federal Coast seat of Fadden, according to several senior LNP party strategists.

Supporters of Fran Ward strongly argue she has to be the front runner, given her tireless work for the Federal Coast branch and having the backing of retiring MP Stuart Robert.

Ms Ward has previously lost preselections in Liberal seats of Bowman and Moncrieff, and failed to remove Councillor Caldwell from his Broadwater division after bitter campaign.

She has been active in Fadden for at least a decade and serves as its branch chair.

But a senior LNP campaigner says Cr Caldwell is ahead of any opponents given how preselection voting for the party works.

More than a decade in politics — Cameron Caldwell and William Owen-Jones when first elected.

Those eligible to vote must live in the electorate and get one ballot due to anti-stacking provisions, the LNP campaigner says.

State Executive members including regional leaders will get to vote but that amounts to only a small amount of ballots.

“It really comes down to grassroots members. That’s something that’s lost on a lot of people,” the campaigner says.

Election day for Gold Coast — Sam O'Connor and Fran Ward, the Fadden FDC chair person and Stuart Robert at the Southport Tigers AFL club. Picture Mike Batterham.

“Cameron has represented two council divisions from Pimpama to Biggera Waters. State branch members meet more regularly than Federal. Fran and Cameron ran against each other before and Cameron prevailed. I think outsiders don’t understand he’s had 12 years of exposure to branch members.”

Mr Caldwell’s push to move from local government into federal politics has been backed by his council colleagues.

Mr Caldwell is running for LNP preselection to replace the outgoing Stuart Robert as the Member for Fadden.

Mr Robert, who was a Minister in the Turnbull and Morrison governments, made the bombshell announcement on Saturday he would resign from federal parliament in the coming weeks, forcing a by-election for the safe conservative northern Gold Coast seat.

No by-election date has been set and nominations close next week, with those expected to contest the seat are Fadden branch head Fran Ward and Doctor Dinesh Palipana.

Fellow long-serving councillors have thrown their weight behind Mr Caldwell.

Cr William Owen-Jones, who will retire from politics next year, wished his colleague well.

“A strong local voice is exactly what the city needs in Canberra,” he said.

Cr Pauline Young said: “I might be from the southern end of the Gold Coast, seeing you in Canberra representing the whole of the Gold Coast will be good for the whole of the city.”

Coolangatta councillor Gail O’Neill said: “I have worked with Cam since 2016 and believe he would be an excellent representative for the northern end of our city in Canberra.”

Arundel councillor Ryan Bayldon-Lumsden signed Mr Caldwell’s nomination form and wished him well on his journey.

“Although a great loss to council, I feel Cameron would be a strong, passionate, and effective voice for the Gold Coast at a Federal level,” he said.

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Originally published as LNP insiders say why the vote numbers show Cameron Caldwell winning Fadden by election