Geelong state election day 2022: Each local seat explored, expert tips for each
Take a look at how each Geelong region seat is shaping up ahead of the big state election vote count.
Geelong
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Weeks after the start of the official 2022 Victorian election campaign period – and months after parties started their unofficial push for votes – Geelong will finally head to the polls today.
While half of the region has already made its voice heard via pre-polling, more than 100,000 local voters will head to schools, town halls and other polling booths on Saturday to cast their ballots.
More than $1.1bn in local election pledges have been thrown at the region’s voters by both major parties, leaving residents with a plethora of reasons to vote for the major party – and plenty of other factors which will send votes towards the smaller party and independent candidates.
Ahead of the beginning of vote counting at 6pm this evening, we look at the region’s five key lower house seats, and the Western Victoria upper house division.
BELLARINE
Labor’s Lisa Neville has bid farewell to the seat she has held since 2002, choosing to retire and hand the reigns to newcomer Alison Marchant to head off a challenge from Liberal candidate and local councillor Donnie Grigau.
Ms Neville won the 2018 election by attracting 49.86 per cent of the primary vote, which was then pushed out to 61.45 per cent of the two-party preferred vote following preference flows.
The Greens were the most popular of the minor parties, snatching 8.99 per cent for the primary vote on election day.
Deakin University’s senior politics lecturer Geoff Robinson said he expected Labor held an insurmountable lead in the Bellarine seat, but suggested the loss of Labor stalwart Lisa Neville would see some votes trickle away from the party.
“I think Labor will retain it,” Mr Robinson said on Friday. “I think there could be a reasonable swing back to the Liberals, both with the loss of Neville’s personal vote, and maybe because some parts of the Bellarine do seem to be areas where Labor will have a little more trouble.”
GEELONG
Labor’s Christine Couzens has held the seat of Geelong since 2014, while Labor has been in charge since the turn of the millennium in 1999. Since the 1850s the seat has jumped back and forth between parties 19 times, and was twice removed and recreated.
Ms Couzens snatched 40.37 per cent of primary vote in 2018, and a commanding 60.14 per cent of the two-part vote, beating out celebrity candidate Darryn Lyons (24.67 per cent primary) and the Liberal candidate Freya Fidge (20.15 per cent). The Greens took 9.49 per cent of the primary vote.
Ms Couzens will face off with first-timer Liberal candidate James Bennett-Hullin, with political experts tipping the newcomer is unlikely to cause an upset.
“I would say she’ll retain it,” Mr Robinson said. “There’s no significant independent challenge, I mean last time the independent Darryn Lyons actually finished ahead of the Liberals.”
“It probably has the features which make for a safer Labor seat, being the inner urban, fairly educated workforce and so on. It’s the sort of seat, in terms of social composition, which is pretty Labor friendly, I think.”
LARA
Labor’s John Eren will join Lisa Neville in heading to the sidelines this election, after holding the seat since 2006 – with Labor holding it since it was created in 2002.
Mr Eren held the seat in 2018 with 57.92 per cent of the primary vote, stretching out to 69.14 per cent of the two-party preferred vote – knocking off Liberal challenger Melissa di Pasquale (24.12 per cent primary vote). The Greens won 7.49 per cent of the primary vote in 2018.
With Mr Eren retiring, newcomer Ella George will take on Liberal candidate Ralph Krein.
Again, Mr Robinson suggested the loss of longstanding MP John Eren would “be a factor” in this year’s vote, but once again tipped the Liberals would be unlikely to close the massive vote gap.
“Again I think it’s too big a margin for the Liberals to overcome,” Mr Robinson said. “And its probably got enough sort of older, rusted-on Labor voters, So I would be expecting a reasonable swing there but nothing that would put Labor’s seat in doubt.”
POLWARTH
The Liberal Party’s only local lower house seat in the region is held by Richard Riordan, who has spent seven-years as the local MP after winning a 2015 by-election caused by the resignation of Terry Mulder. The seat has been held by the Liberals or Liberal Country Party since 1949.
Mr Riordan won the 2018 election with 51.14 per cent of primary votes, and 55.40 per cent of the two-party preferred tally, knocking off Labor’s Douglas Johnston with 33.06 of the primary vote. The Greens won 9.79 per cent of the primary vote.
The Liberals will once again look to Mr Riordan as their chief local hope for a lower house seat, despite his margin falling following a recent redistribution, with Labor’s Hutch Hussein taking up the challenge for the seat.
“It’s now a two per cent margin after redistribution,” Mr Robinson said.
“It’s a stretch target for Labor, and even although the margin’s only two per cent and the population trends favour Labor, I think it’s still too big a hill for Labor to get over in the current climate of a swing against the government.”
“I mean Labor certainly put an effort in here … I wonder if on Sunday morning Labor’s line will be they didn’t focus their campaign enough on marginal seats.”
SOUTH BARWON
In what is likely to be one of the closest election tally races in the region, incumbent Labor MP Darren Cheeseman will once again face Liberal Andrew Katos, after snatching the seat away from him in 2018 on the back of preference flows.
Mr Cheeseman won 37.25 per cent of the 2018 primary vote, falling marginally behind Mr Katos’ 37.61 per cent. Preferences dragged Mr Cheeseman over the line with a two-party preferred vote of 54.6 per cent. The Greens nabbed 8.62 per cent of the primary vote.
While the race for South Barwon is expected to be close, it is still expected Mr Cheeseman will hold onto his seat in parliament.
“This is sort of that classic marginal seat,” Mr Robinson said. “I think it’s the sort of seat where Labor is going to do better than the statewide swing, but I suppose if Labor did quite poorly overall it’s the sort of seat that could be dragged down.
“But I do still think it’s going to be held by Labor.”
WESTERN VICTORIA
Five seats are up for grabs in the upper house division of Western Victoria, currently held by two Labor MPs, and a single MP from each of the Liberals, Animal Justice Party, and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party.
Preferences are expected to play a major role in upper house races across the state, with Western Victoria Animal Justice MP Andy Meddick winning his seat in parliament in 2018 despite two other minor party candidates polling greater first preferences counts and being bungled out after preference flows.
Mr Robinson has predicted this is the local seat most likely to see a shake-up, with his expectation that the Liberal Party will rally to win two seats to match Labor’s two, and the minor parties forced to battle it out for the one remaining position.
“I think the Libs will go back from one to two, and the fifth seat I think is very much up for grabs between the Greens, Animal Justice and maybe one of the small right wing parties – maybe Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party,” Mr Robinson said. “It’s going to be reliant on preferences.”
BREAKOUT
2018 two-party preferred results:
Bellarine – LABOR (61.45 per cent)
Geelong – LABOR (60.14 per cent)
Lara – LABOR (69.14 per cent)
Polwarth – LIBERAL (55.4 per cent)
South Barwon – LABOR (54.6 per cent)
Originally published as Geelong state election day 2022: Each local seat explored, expert tips for each
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