Geelong leads Australia in surprise baby boom figures

If you think you’ve noticed more babies around Geelong lately, you’re not wrong. New data reveals births in the region are at a record high – a result underpinned by several factors.

Royce Raymond Grace was one of 4120 children born in Geelong last year. He is pictured here with mum, Chloe McKiernan. Picture: Brad Fleet.

Geelong is in the midst of a baby boom as new data reveals the region recorded its highest ever number of births in 2024, with one economist attributing the result to confidence in the local economy.

The 4120 births in the region last year represented a 7.6 per cent increase from 2023 and a massive 19.4 per cent jump since 2019 – both results far exceeded the regional Australian average.

The number of births nationally increased 2.6 per cent in 2024 to 292,500, but that figure is almost 4 per cent below the 2019 result.

An analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data by professional services firm KPMG found Geelong was leading the way in regional centres, where growth, in turn, outstripped metropolitan areas.

“It’s pretty extraordinary that Geelong is up almost 20 per cent on the number of births compared to pre-Covid,” KPMG economist Terry Rawnsley said.

“Most other centres are still struggling to get above that 2019 level … so that’s reflecting the strength of the local Geelong economy.

“People are feeling pretty confident about starting a family, (and) it’s also reflecting the availability and affordability of housing.”

The Geelong data includes the Bellarine, Surf Coast and much of the Golden Plains Shire.

Terry Rawnsley from KPMG.

Lara resident Chloe McKiernan and her partner, Anthony, had their first child, Royce Raymond Grace in October.

Ms McKiernan, 29, said she sought advice from friends about the financial impact of having a baby.

“We’ve only been in our house two to three years and have a mortgage obviously, but money was never front of mind for us,” she said.

“My mum is helping out a bit so I can spend more time at home, rather than having to rush back to work.”

Chloe McKiernan and nine-month-old baby Royce. Picture: Brad Fleet

Mr Rawnsley said the Geelong region was rich in “nappy valleys”, notably Armstrong Creek and new estates in the north.

“There’s big houses, the local infrastructure is not too bad, not too far to travel into work – Geelong is ticking a lot of boxes when it comes to those preconditions for starting a family,” he said.

Mr Rawnsley dismissed the region’s population growth as the sole reason for the record result.

“More people does mean more babies, but the most recent rate of growth of almost 8 per cent far outstrips the population growth,” he said.

Geelong’s population has been growing by between 2 and 3 per cent in recent years.

The Regional Australia Institute’s Regional Movers Index for March saw Geelong overtake Queensland’s Sunshine Coast as the nation’s leading destination for people moving to the country.

Geelong is seen as an attractive place to have a family. Picture: Alan Barber.

Birth numbers remain well below pre-pandemic levels nationally, with KPMG reporting cost-of-living pressures as a major deterrent.

Similarly, Australia’s fertility rate – the average number of children over a woman’s lifetime – was 1.51 in 2024, well below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain the country’s workplace and population growth.

“Encouragingly, the growth in disposable household income per capita in 2024 suggests there’s cause for optimism that birth rates will recover further,” Mr Rawnsley said.

Originally published as Geelong leads Australia in surprise baby boom figures