Geelong Cats: 10 reasons why the Cats are still a flag threat
They currently sit in ninth place, but the Cats remain firmly in the hunt to go back-to-back. Here’s why Geelong can still challenge for the flag.
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Geelong may be outside the top eight, but there is no doubt they are still in the hunt to go back-to-back.
As the club’s statement win over Melbourne proved, they are capable of matching it with the best, and things are about to get better on the injury and fixture fronts.
We outline the reasons why the Cats can storm home and challenge for the 2023 premiership.
1. Cavalry arriving and firing
Geelong has had to deal with injuries to key players throughout the whole season, but reinforcements are on the way. The Cats regained premiership ruckman Rhys Stanley for his crucial duel with Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy and important midfielder Patrick Dangerfield and key defender Esava Ratugolea could return as soon as this week. If the Cats do make the finals, they should welcome back another key midfield cog in Cam Guthrie by that stage. And Geelong’s returning players have blown out the cobwebs. Experienced head Mitch Duncan has had two games back in the senior side from his most recent injury setback, Jack Henry has five matches under his belt after returning from a foot injury and Sam De Koning played his best game yet over the weekend since undergoing surgery following his nasal and maxillary bone break he suffered in round seven. Injury-plagued veteran Sam Menegola also made a positive return in the seconds last week.
2. Top eight cracks appearing
The Cats may be sitting out of the eight on percentage, but there are cracks appearing for sides above them. Adelaide nearly upset off Collingwood on Sunday but are ahead of the Cats by a mere 0.9 per cent heading into round 16 and have been otherwise suspect away from Adelaide Oval. The seventh-placed Western Bulldogs have dropped games to Geelong, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide in their last four matches, while recent wins over West Coast and North Melbourne have masked some of the question marks surrounding Essendon (6th). Meanwhile, St Kilda remain in fifth despite losing two on the trot and is 4-6 in its last 10 as the gloss starts to come off Ross Lyon’s return. Geelong overran the fourth-placed Demons on Thursday night without Dangerfield and the concussed Jeremy Cameron for most of the match, while Brisbane is far from a top-four side away from the Gabba. Top-two sides Collingwood and Port Adelaide look to be the teams to beat in 2023, but plenty can change over the next eight rounds. Geelong would be hoping to push for a double chance in finals, however, if there was any year that a club could win a flag outside the top four, this is it.
3. Favourable run
Geelong would be licking its lips looking at its run home. The Cats face bottom-six sides Sydney – albeit off a thumping win – and North Melbourne in the next fortnight and have five games at GMHBA Stadium to finish the season. The biggest of those is their date with Port Adelaide in Round 21, and it shapes as a big opportunity to claim a scalp given the Power have won two games from 15 attempts at the Cattery in their history. The Cats also leave Victoria just twice in the last nine rounds — against Sydney this week and Brisbane in round 19 — and will have finals defining contests against Collingwood (MCG, round 21) and St Kilda (Marvel Stadium, round 22). Realistically, the Cats should win at least five of their last nine matches – and if they play like that barnstorming last quarter against the Demons, there is every chance they could notch seven or eight.
4. Finals experience
Finals is a completely different ball-game, and the Cats have experience in spades. Geelong’s current list has played 152 more finals than the next best side – that’s Richmond, who face an uphill battle to even make the top-eight. Geelong’s list has a whopping 398 games of finals experience under their belt – that is eight times more than Essendon’s 46 games. The Cats boast double the finals experience of 2021 grand finalists Melbourne (197 games) and the Western Bulldogs (176), while Brisbane (226), Collingwood (216) are the most finals hardened teams in the current top eight. Geelong’s ageing list is the butt of footy fans’ jokes, but it pays to be experienced come finals time.
5. Midfield x-factor
Injuries to Dangerfield, Guthrie and the retirement of Joel Selwood has allowed speedster Max Holmes to shine. Holmes is winning more of the ball and having a greater impact in an enhanced midfield role, averaging 19.6 disposals (+4.0 on last year), 5.2 tackles (+2.9), 4.4 inside 50s (+1.5), 3.8 clearances (+2.5) and 85 Champion Data ranking points (+16). And with the former sprinter’s line-breaking speed, Holmes doesn’t need a lot of the ball to turn a game. Same goes for trade recruit Tanner Bruhn, whose agility and goalkicking nous were on full display in his best game in Cats colours last Thursday night. Bruhn’s form has been indifferent this year but he shapes as another midfield wildcard up Chris Scott’s sleeve.
6. Small forwards rising
While it was all about Tyson Stengle last year, whipping boy Gryan Miers is quietly putting together a strong season. He has kicked just the two goals for the year but has been helping set up his teammates instead, rating elite for score assists, score involvements and uncontested possessions as a forward. The 24-year-old has tallied more than 20 disposals on five occasions this year and is proving his doubters wrong. The underrated Brad Close had his best game for the year against the Demons from a pure numbers point of view, tallying 24 disposals, but his tackling pressure is invaluable to the Cats. Close has laid four or more tackles in six of his last eight matches.
7. Offensive threat
With Close and Miers at their best and the star power of Cameron, Tom Hawkins, Tyson Stengle and Gary Rohan, the Cats’ forward line will be difficult to stop. And while there has been question marks over Geelong’s defence this year, its offence has been a strength. The Cats are the second-best scoring team in the competition this year (95.6 points per game) and get a score on the board from 47 per cent of their forward 50 entries, ranked fourth in the competition. They are also sixth in the competition for inside 50 differential. With the attacking arsenal at their disposal, the Cats have no trouble getting a score on the board. But can they shore up their defensive game?
8. Intercept kings
Winning the ball back off the opposition is crucial in the modern game and the Cats have a trio of intercept kings in their back six, headlined by vice-captain Tom Stewart. Stewart showed his worth with two defining intercept marks with the game on the line in the final term against Melbourne, and is averaging 7.8 intercepts and 2.9 intercept marks per game this year. Sam De Koning hasn’t had the same influence as he did in his breakout 2022 campaign, but his performance last week – which led Chris Scott to label him an All-Australian calibre player – was a sign of things to come after working his way back from injury. Then there’s the forward turned defender Esava Ratugolea, who was not only shutting down opponents but leaping for the Sherrin himself, clunking 3.3 intercept marks per game before his setback in round 11. It’s no surprise the Cats are fourth in the competition for forward half intercepts and third for points from those intercepts. With plenty of pressure on the ball in finals, the intercept trio loom as a serious weapon for the Cats.
9. Injury creates depth
The loss of numerous senior players to injury throughout the season has given some young Cats extra AFL responsibility. Geelong has exposed 34 players this year, and there’s plenty to like from their emerging group. Falcons export Mitch Knevitt has shown positive signs as a taller midfield option, with his 17 disposal, 103-ranking point display against the Western Bulldogs underlining his potential. Gaelic convert Oisin Mullin broke through for a shock debut – in just his fifth professional game of Aussie rules – and has serious speed. Forward Ollie Dempsey has also featured in three senior games and is in red hot VFL form, 32 disposals, 23 contested possessions, a goal and 158 ranking points last week, and finishing with 25 disposals, three goals and 129 ranking points the week prior. While he isn’t young at 25, Sam Simpson booted seven majors in his first four games in the seniors, and veteran Jon Ceglar has proved he is solid back-up for Stanley. Jack Bowes, Knevitt, Mullin and Dempsey were the emergencies for the Cats’ win last week, and all are capable of slotting in and having an influence if injury strikes.
10. Scott factor
It is hard to believe Chris Scott cops the criticism he does with his remarkable record. His calls to manage his experienced players through last season proved a masterstroke as he held the premiership cup aloft for the second time last year. Scott has won 71.6 per cent of matches across his tenure, notching 193 wins into his 13th season. He has more wins than losses against every team in the competition, most notably winning 10 out of 12 matches up against coaching rival Luke Beveridge. If anyone is capable of turning Geelong’s fortunes around in the run home, Scott can.
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