Anthony Albanese’s failure to meet with Donald Trump could be a blessing in disguise | Samantha Maiden

The PM is being savaged over his failure to meet with the US President but could it be a strategic move or blessing in disguise, writes Samantha Maiden.

Former United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld popularised the term “unknown unknowns” almost a quarter of a century ago.

During a press briefing about the Iraq War, he famously divided information into four categories: known knowns, known unknowns, unknown knowns, and unknown unknowns.

As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues to endure a public savaging over his failure to organise tea and scones with the US President, an exploration of the unknowns is relevant.

While the Albanese government won’t say it publicly, some within its ranks claim even senior US officials have warned Australia: be careful what you wish for.

For all the hand-wringing about his failure to launch on the Trump administration, there are senior officials who believe delaying the meeting could be the safest outcome.

Former US national security adviser John Bolton said the quiet part out loud recently when he suggested a meeting between Anthony Albanese and Donald Trump before the future of the AUKUS review is resolved could backfire.

Mr Bolton, who served in the first Trump administration from 2018-19, suggested that the risk if Australia caught Mr Trump on a bad day was that it was possible the US could back out of or place new conditions on the AUKUS agreement.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

And if we want to lobby him about tariffs? Australia is already on the lowest rung of tariffs – 10 per cent.

Despite all the doom and gloom and fear Australia’s beef exports are going gangbusters and the US is still buying our aluminium, it just costs them more thanks to Trump’s tariffs.

Rather than Mr Albanese’s visit to China and fourth meeting with Xi Jinping being a problem, Mr Bolton doubted it would have seriously registered with the US President.

Sure enough, Mr Trump subsequently confirmed he may visit China soon for a landmark trip to address trade and security tensions between the superpower rivals.

“President Xi has invited me to China, and we’ll probably be doing that in the not-too-distant future,” he told reporters in the White House’s Oval Office.

“A little bit out, but not too distant. And I’ve been invited by a lot of people, and we’ll make those decisions pretty soon.”

But Mr Trump’s former national security adviser said that he saw no obvious benefit for Mr Albanese in rushing off to Washington to obtain an Oval Office meeting with Mr Trump.

“Who knows what he’ll say?” Mr Bolton said. “Ask Volodymyr Zelensky how that can go. Or Cyril Ramaphosa from South Africa. You really want to do that?

US President Donald Trump speaks alongside former National Security Adviser John Bolton in 2018. Picture: Saul Loeb/AFP

“It’s a signal of how damaging Trump’s presidency can be to the United States – when foreign leaders have to think to themselves, do I really want to go to the White House and take a risk? Xi Jinping hasn’t done that.

“You can bet that the Chinese are not going to ask for a meeting until they know 110 per cent that it’s going to go according to script.”

Mr Bolton is of course now an avowed Trump critic. But his observations are shared by at least some in the Trump administration talking to Australia.

The question of when to meet with the US President presented Mr Albanese with “a difficult decision to make”, according to Mr Bolton.

He suggested that Australia instead come to a better understanding of the Pentagon review of the AUKUS agreement before any face-to-face meeting was arranged between Mr Albanese and Mr Trump.

“If I were in the Australian Prime Minister’s shoes, I would say AUKUS is the highest priority and I want to get that resolved the right way,” he told The Australian.

“Clear up the ambiguity here and proceed with the program.

“And if we can do that without a face-to-face meeting, I’d prefer to do it. And then, once that’s resolved favourably, then go and ask for a meeting.

“If I were in Australia’s shoes, I’d want to know better what exactly is going on.”

Earlier this year, Mr Trump’s chief foreign affairs adviser reassured Australia there are “no plans” to scrap the AUKUS submarine deal.

“Well, look, anytime a new administration takes over, there’s a review of all policies,’’ Secretary of State Marc Rubio replied in relation to the AUKUS review.

“I mean, policies are reviewed; doesn’t necessarily mean you’re against it.

The secretary of state stressed that just because the US is reviewing something “doesn’t mean you’re going to necessarily act on it”.

Mr Rubio’s remarks follow reports that the Pentagon’s announcement of the AUKUS review completely blindsided many key officials elsewhere in the US government.

The decision was described as a unilateral move by the Pentagon championed by its policy chief Elbridge Colby, an AUKUS sceptic.

It remains entirely possible that the Prime Minister made a strategic error when he failed to lock in a meeting with President Trump as soon as he won the election, perhaps fearing a blow-up that could derail the election campaign.

But given it could now derail AUKUS, there may be good reasons to wait, even if the Albanese government is coy about the reasons.

Originally published as Anthony Albanese’s failure to meet with Donald Trump could be a blessing in disguise | Samantha Maiden