Oscars 2016 predictions: Who will win the Academy Awards and why

IT’S the biggest awards night in Hollywood. So who will claim this year’s Academy Awards, judging by the results of the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and SAGs?

TOPSHOT - Jennifer Lawrence poses with the award for Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy for her role in “Joy,” in the press room at the 73nd annual Golden Globe Awards, January 10, 2016, at the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, California. AFP PHOTO / FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP / FREDERIC J BROWN

HOLLYWOOD actors who win a Golden Globe are almost guaranteed to win an Oscar in the same year, an analysis of recent award winners shows.

And the SAGs and BAFTAs - the other two major awards that precede the Academy Awards - also have a trackrecord for predicting Oscar-winners, particularly in the Best Actor and Best Actress categories.

So who will claim tomorrow’s Academy Awards, judging by who won the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and British Academy of Film and Television Arts awards?

An analysis of the previous five Oscar winners for each of the major categories reveals how accurately the Globes, SAGs and BAFTAs predicts an Oscar nominee’s chances of nabbing Hollywood’s most coveted gold statue.

So will 2016 be the year Leonardo DiCaprio — who is nominated for Best Actor in The Revenant — finally wins an Academy Award?

He has so far never won an Oscar but this year Leonardo DiCaprio, pictured with his Best Actor BAFTA, is the favourite. Picture: Getty Images

Leo has already claimed the Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA for his performance in The Revenant, making him the Oscar favourite.

Just being nominated adds serious cred to an actor’s brand. Breaking Bad star Bryan Cranston is up against Leo for Best Actor for his role in Trump and while he is statistically unlikely to beat Leo (let’s face it, he has basically won already), Cranston told New York magazine his nomination alone “means a great deal”.

“It’s the first moniker you hear about when you grow up: Oscar nominee,” Cranston told nymag.com.

“I’m just trying to take it all and really be in the moment and see what it feels like, and then accept the ephemeral nature of it.”

BEST ACTOR AND ACTRESS

The Academy Award winners for Best Actor and Actress have been almost identical across the Golden Globes, SAGs and BAFTAs in recent years.

Each academy tends to vote the same when it comes to Hollywood’s leading men and women.

All of the Best Actor Oscar winners in the last five years have also won the Golden Globe and SAG.

Hollywood darling Jennifer Lawrence won Best Actress at the Golden Globes (Musical or Comedy) for her role in Joy. Picture: Getty Images

This includes Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything (2014), Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club (2013), Daniel Day-Lewis of Lincoln (2012), Jean Dujardin from The Artist (2011) and Colin Firth who won for The King’s Speech (2010).

The Room actor Brie Larson — who won a Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA for her performance as a woman held captive — is the favourite to win the Oscar for Best Actress.

Oscar nominee Brie Larson, pictured with her Best Actress statute at the Golden Globes. Picture: Getty Images

Previous Oscar winners Julianne Moore for Still Alice (2014), Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine (2013), Jennifer Lawrence of Silver Linings Playbook (2012), Meryl Streep’s performance in The Iron Lady (2011) and Natalie Portman in Black Swan (2010) won both the Golden Globe and Academy Award.

Only Streep didn’t win the SAG and JLaw didn’t win the BAFTA in the years when they claimed Mr Oscar.

BEST PICTURE

The Oscar for Best Picture isn’t as predictable as the acting awards, with 60 per cent of Golden Globe-winning films going on to actually win an Oscar in the past five years.

For example, 12 Years a Slave (2013), Argo (2012) and The Artist (2011) won Golden Globes and Oscars, but last year’s Best Picture Oscar winner Birdman wasn’t awarded a Golden Globe or a BAFTA.

The BAFTAs seems to be slightly more accurate, with 80 per cent of Best Film winners at the British awards also going on to win the Oscar over the past five years (12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Artist and The King’s Speech).

The Revenant is widely tipped to be named Best Picture at the Oscars, after claiming the Golden Globe (Drama) and BAFTA.

Leonardo DiCaprio plays Hugh Glass in Oscar-nominated film, The Revenant. Picture: AP

BEST DIRECTOR

Unlike the acting awards, Best Director isn’t always so predictable.

In the past five years, only 20 per cent of Golden Globe-winning directors went on to Oscar victory (including Alfonso Cuaron who directed Gravity), while 40 per cent of BAFTA award-winning directors also won the Academy Award (Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity and Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist).

So who will collect this year’s directing Oscar?

The jury is still out but The Revenant’s Alejandro G. Inarritu (who actually won Best Director for Birdman last year) is the critic’s choice.

Originally published as Oscars 2016 predictions: Who will win the Academy Awards and why