Oscar predictions: Who will win?

WILL it finally be Leo’s year? Can The Revenant fight off Spotlight and The Big Short for the big gong? See our Oscar predictions here.

“The Steve Bradbury” of the frontrunners.

IT’S cinema’s night of nights when the famous and pretty walk down that blood-red carpet to victory or forced grace from losing.

So who will take home the Oscars?

BEST PICTURE

“The Steve Bradbury” of the frontrunners.

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

The big prize for the night is a three-horse race between Spotlight, The Big Short and The Revenant. Early money was on Spotlight and then The Big Short won the Producer’s Guild Award, which has successfully predicted the Best Picture Oscar winner over the last eight years.

While different in their approaches, Spotlight and The Big Short are both films dealing with social justice issues, which the Hollywood elite loves. This could very well split the vote between them, leaving The Revenant to come in from behind and scoop the Best Picture gong for those who wanted to vote for something different.

Even though its characterisation is thin and the actual story is second-rate, the film is a thing of beauty to watch the transcendent shots set up by Emmanuel Lubezki (who’s up for his third consecutive Cinematography Oscar).

Will win: The Revenant

Could win: The Big Short or Spotlight

Should win: Spotlight

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro G. Inarritu looks likely to be the first consecutive Best Director winner since 1950.

Adam McKay, The Big Short

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

The Oscars rarely give two back-to-back awards for directing. The last time it happened was in 1950 and it only occurred once before that.

It’s really a contest between Alejandro G. Inarritu, winner last year for Birdman, and George Miller, whose visions for their films were bold and passionate. They both slaved to get their movies made and it was evident on screen with their works oozing with a distinct style and a clear love for filmmaking.

Miller had the early momentum but it’s now swinging behind Inarritu who picked up the Director’s Guild Award. And the Academy doesn’t like splitting up the Best Picture and Best Director gongs.

Will win: Alejandro G. Inarritu

Could win: George Miller

Should win: George Miller

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Leo will finally win “his” Oscar.

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

That Leonardo DiCaprio will bound up on stage to pick up a shiny statuette is a foregone conclusion.

There are many who feel DiCaprio is “owed” an Oscar with his starpower and five Oscar nominations and this looks to be the year after a campaign based on the hardship the actor endured during filming for The Revenant — he ate raw bison and stood in an icy river for hours. He’s picked up every major lead-up award for his role as real-life frontiersman Hugh Glass.

To DiCaprio’s advantage is a fairly average field with the other talented nominees all having given much better performances elsewhere in their career. But even so, Michael Fassbender’s turn as Steve Jobs — his chemistry with Kate Winslet, the balance between charisma and ugliness — was a more nuanced and thoughtful piece of work than DiCaprio’s, who spent much of the film acting generically “tortured”.

Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Could win: Michael Fassbender

Should win: Michael Fassbender

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Brie Larson has picked every major award in the lead-up.

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Brie Larson is as much a lock for the Leading Actress award as the lock that kept her character trapped in the garden shed with her on-screen son. Little-known Larson, who’s predominantly starred in comedies previously, lent a maturity to her performance that belies her age and was captivating as “Ma” in a film that is as much about innocence as it was about the dark events that inspired it.

Larson’s closest competition is Saoirse Ronan, who was charming as a 1950s ingenue torn between her New World home in Brooklyn and her ties in Ireland. Ronan, who received her first Oscar nomination at the age of 14 for Atonement, may be second in the running, but she’s a long way behind.

Charlotte Rampling had a grief glimpse of victory early in the race but then she made those comments and that was that.

Will win: Brie Larson

Could win: Saoirse Ronan

Should win: Brie Larson

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

An Oscar 39 years in the making.

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

The sentimental favourite is Sylvester Stallone who reprised his role as Rocky Balboa for the seventh time. Stallone was nominated almost four decades ago for playing the same character and Academy voters will want to reward him, especially as Creed was actually a good instalment in the franchise.

However, this category is far from settled, in part because the winner of one of the main pre-Oscars awards, the SAG Awards, was Idris Elba, who wasn’t even nominated by the Academy. And Mark Rylance picked up the BAFTA for his restrained performance in Steven Spielberg’s tense Cold War drama, Bridge of Spies. And don’t discount Tom Hardy, whose delightfully unapologetic portrayal of Leo’s nemesis in The Revenant was yards ahead of the main man.

Will win: Sylvester Stallone

Could win: Mark Rylance

Should win: Mark Rylance

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alicia Vikander should breeze to victory.

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Alicia Vikander has had a phenomenal year. The Swedish actor unsettled audiences in Ex Machina and had them charmed in The Man From UNCLE and Burnt. But don’t make the mistake that any win for Vikander will be for her collective 2015. She was phenomenal in The Danish Girl, so much so that you could easily mount an argument that she was the titular Danish girl, rather than Eddie Redmayne’s character. The humanity she infused in her role as Gerda Wegener, the wife of Redmayne’s transgender Lili Elbe, was the thread that held the movie together.

The only complaint is that Vikander, as well as fellow nominee Rooney Mara, really should’ve been competing in the Lead Actress category.

Still, Kate Winslet has picked up the BAFTA and the Golden Globe for playing Steve Job’s right-hand-woman.

Will win: Alicia Vikander

Could win: Kate Winslet

Should win: Alicia Vikander

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

If Inside Out doesn’t win, we should all just go home.

Anomalisa

Boy and the World

Inside Out

Shaun the Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

Best Animated Feature is a no-brainer. It’s Inside Out’s to lose. The Pixar film about a young girl and the visceral representation of her emotions was imaginative and a delight. It would’ve also had adult Oscar voters blubbering like children as the film tugged on the nostalgia of our childhoods. It could’ve easily been nominated in the Best Picture category and probably should’ve been.

Will win: Inside Out

Could win: Anomalisa

Should win: Inside Out

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

A tight script propelled Spotlight into the, well, spotlight.

Bridge of Spies

Ex Machina

Inside Out

Spotlight

Straight Outta Compton

For a movie that was primarily about people doing research (on computers, in archives, combing through heavy books with rulers), Spotlight notched up the tension and had you completely invested in at what was at stake. It was partly because of the strong ensemble cast but it was largely due to a taut script from Tom McCarthy and Singer.

The story about how a team of investigative journalists uncovered rampant sexual abuse by priests across Boston was one of the best paced films of the year. Despite its subject matter, the writing was never overwrought.

Potential spoilers on the night could be Inside Out or Straight Outta Compton, which is, despite its all-white writing team, one of the only nominations the Oscar bestowed upon minority-related work.

Will win: Spotlight

Could win: Inside Out or Straight Outta Compton

Should win: Spotlight

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Anyone who can explain what caused the GFC should get an automatic award.

The Big Short

Brooklyn

Carol

The Martian

Room

Golden Globe winner and uber-wordsmith Aaron Sorkin was snubbed for a nomination here for his Steve Jobs script, which is a shame because for all its faults, the film was very well-written and structured.

Expect The Big Short to pick this one up for distilling an incredibly complicated and dry economic topic (the GFC) into a dramedy with compelling characters and a human dimension, but without being trite or overly condescending (a little condescension was OK).

Will win: The Big Short

Could win: Room

Should win: The Big Short

Originally published as Oscar predictions: Who will win?