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Premiers warned over 90 per cent vaccination targets

New modelling shows how states vax rates compare as premiers eyeing a reopening at 90 per cent are warned of possible devastating consequences.

Qld tourism calls for safe reopening of borders at 80 per cent vaccination

Border closures that extend into 2022 will push more Australian businesses to the wall, and take a huge toll on mental health and relationships, state leaders are being warned.

New modelling shows states that are leaning towards 90 per cent vaccination thresholds as a condition of opening up may not reach those milestones until almost mid January.

The premiers of Queensland and Western Australia have backed away from opening up borders at the full 80 per cent adult vaccination rate initially agreed by National Cabinet.

This week Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk refused to confirm interstate and international family reunions could take place at Christmas even if the state was at 80 per cent vaccination.

On Friday her Deputy Premier Steven Miles described the delta variant of Covid-19 as “the gift Queensland does not want from Scott Morrison”.

WA Premier Mark McGowan has been even more bullish, declaring borders could stay shut until April 2022.

Modelling by Dr Chris Billington from Melbourne University, based on current vaccine supply and seven-day averages of jabs, shows Queensland will not have fully vaccinated 90 per cent of people aged 16 and over until December 31, and WA will only have done so by January 1.

But if those states insist on including everyone aged over 12 in their vaccination tallies – something that is increasingly being discussed – Queensland will not reach the 90 per cent milestone until January 11 and WA will not reach it until January 12.

THE PERSONAL TOLL

The possible delay in reopening borders comes as new ANU research shows the mental health of young Australians has deteriorated significantly.

Co-author Professor Nicholas Biddle said 71 per cent of parents reported worsening mental health conditions for their teenage children – and while lockdowns were a factor, the trend was apparent even in states that were open.

Professor Nicholas Biddle from Australian National University. Picture: Lannon Harley/ANU.
Professor Nicholas Biddle from Australian National University. Picture: Lannon Harley/ANU.
Relationships Australia National Executive Officer Nick Tebby. Picture: Supplied
Relationships Australia National Executive Officer Nick Tebby. Picture: Supplied

“Our data suggests the largest impact is on those states and territories which are in lockdown conditions, but there are still negative impacts on those states and territories which have remained open,” he said.

“It’s not just living in one of those (lockdown) states which matters for someone’s wellbeing; it’s also seeing what's happening and not being able to travel freely across the country.”

The authors found mental health outcomes were particularly bad for children if a parent lived in one of the states that had long lockdowns.

But for most Australians, Prof Biddle said, “when internal borders have opened up, when other restrictions of moments have opened up, their mental health and wellbeing has for the most part returned to their pre-Covid baseline”.

Relationships Australia executive officer Nick Tebby said the longer term strain on people’s relationships from Covid-19 was now clearly evident and uncertainty around Christmas could exacerbate this stress.

“People need some level of certainty about what’s happening,” he said.

“The last thing you want is to set unrealistic goals and have them broken and have the disappointment that comes with that. Even if there are still restrictions at Christmas, the sooner people know that that is likely, the better they can plan and look for other ways to approach their Christmas celebration.”

CONCERN FOR THE ECONOMY

Economists expressed concern about the impact of extended border closures after what is expected to be a negative growth quarter in September.

CommSec has forecast the economy to contract 4.4 per cent in the September quarter, before a partial recovery, with 2.3 per cent growth in the December quarter – but senior economist Ryan Felsman said that modest lift, driven by household spending, was predicated on most state borders being reopen by Christmas.

CommSec senior economist Ryan Felsman.
CommSec senior economist Ryan Felsman.
Tourism and Transport Forum chief executive Margy Osmond. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Christian Gilles
Tourism and Transport Forum chief executive Margy Osmond. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Christian Gilles

“Household spending ties in with border reopening in terms of spending around Christmas and New Year,” Mr Felsman said.

Strong international prices for iron ore and coal, and low cases of Covid-19 were keeping the economies of resource-rich states like Queensland and Western Australia buoyant, but the Sunshine State ultimately needed tourism dollars, Mr Felsman said.

“Queensland stands to lose most from the continued closure of its borders, particularly with the biggest source of its tourism domestically coming from Sydney and Melbourne visitors,” he said.

TOURISM INDUSTRY ‘NEEDS CERTAINTY NOW’

Tourism and Transport Forum CEO Margy Osmond said Queensland would be losing $118 million per day for every day of the Christmas/New Year holiday that they remained shut.

“If Queensland is not open to NSW and Victoria in time to be booking summer holidays, it’s going to be so devastating for the tourism industry, it will effectively be the fifth school holidays in a row that they will have lost out on,” she said.

“That doesn’t mean they’re not going to get local travellers, but to be perfectly frank everybody has holidayed at home quite a bit over the last 12 months, and I’m not certain how much people are going to want to spend their Christmas holidays just on internal state travel.”

Ms Osmond blasted the lack of certainty around some states reopening.

“Political each-way bets on when you might open will be the death knell for the tourism industry. They need certainty now. They need to know what to expect and they need some dates. You can’t just turn this on a dime,” she said.

Queensland’s tourism is largely dependant on visitors from other states.
Queensland’s tourism is largely dependant on visitors from other states.

CreditorWatch CEO Patrick Coghlan said extended border closures would see more businesses fail, particularly in the tourism sector.

“When everyone starts spending their holiday money, and it’s not going into Queensland … then there’s going to be a huge amount of pain,” he said.

This would extend to any business exposed to tourism, he said,

“That cuts across recreation, accommodation, hotels and of course hospitality,” Mr Coghlan said.

IS A 90% VACCINATION RATE POSSIBLE IN AUSTRALIA?

Overseas evidence shows very high rates are possible.

The Maldives has vaccinated more than 97 per cent of its population, and the UAE has given at least one dose to 91 per cent of its 10 million people.

According to the BBC, first dose rates in the UK are very high: 91 per cent in Scotland and Wales, 89 per cent in England and 87 per cent in Northern Ireland.

Opinion polls shows vaccine hesitancy has waned. A Roy Morgan poll from December last year showed 77 per cent of Australians were likely to get the jab, but that had gone up to 83 per cent by April this year.

A Bastion Insights survey in September suggested hesitancy levels were now as low as eight per cent.

Professor Jodie McVernon from the Doherty Institute. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage
Professor Jodie McVernon from the Doherty Institute. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage
Hassan Valley, Associate Professor in Epidemiology at La Trobe University.
Hassan Valley, Associate Professor in Epidemiology at La Trobe University.

“We had a much bigger problem with vaccine hesitancy a few months ago than we do now, as people are aware of the disease, they see people who are affected, and so the level of public concern and awareness also changes,” Prof McVernon from the Doherty Institute said.

Australia has an extremely high level of vaccination against childhood diseases such as measles, with immunisation rates as high as 95 per cent, but epidemiologist Hassan Vally from La Trobe University questioned whether those high coverage rates will translate to Covid-19.

“Those childhood vaccination rates … are a good indicator of the overall acceptability of vaccination in Australia, but I think Covid is a completely different scenario,” Assoc Prof Vally said.

Countries such as the US and UK saw a pronounced levelling off in vaccine uptake as overall jab rates got higher, but Assoc Prof Vally said constrained supply meant Australia had not seen that trend yet.

“Up until this point, we haven’t had enough supply of vaccines. Basically vaccines that have been available have been snapped up,” he said. “It will be in this next phase when … we’ll get a better indication of whether we’re reaching that point where it’s levelling off, and we have to work harder to convince people to get vaccinated.”

High vaccination rates have allowed many Brits some semblance of a return to normality. Here people enjoy the sunshine and high temperatures on Whitby beach. Picture: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
High vaccination rates have allowed many Brits some semblance of a return to normality. Here people enjoy the sunshine and high temperatures on Whitby beach. Picture: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Assoc Prof Vally said getting to a 90 per cent vaccination rate was going to be “very difficult,” but eased restrictions for vaccine passport holders could help.

”When we start to open up there’ll be advantages for individuals being vaccinated compared to individuals who haven’t been vaccinated … more freedom to travel, maybe even freedom to attend big events and that sort of thing,” he said.

“Maybe just seeing the freedoms that the people who are vaccinated have … that may turn out to be the incentive for those that are holding back to get vaccinated.”

STATES AT DIFFERENT RATES

Ironically, the states that are more likely to open up at lower thresholds are the ones that have much higher vaccination rates.

In NSW, 54 of the state’s 129 local government areas (LGAs) already have first-dose vaccination rates above 80 per cent, and a further 11 have rates above 90 per cent.

In Victoria, 30 of its 80 LGAs are already above 80 per cent and one is above 90 per cent.

But it’s a different story in Queensland, where only one LGA has a single dose vaccination rate above 80 per cent.

South Australia is faring even worse, with no LGAs in that category.

Dr Chris Billington from the University of Melbourne. Picture: Supplied
Dr Chris Billington from the University of Melbourne. Picture: Supplied
CreditorWatch CEO Patrick Coghlan Picture: Supplied
CreditorWatch CEO Patrick Coghlan Picture: Supplied

The Doherty Institute modelling which has been used by the federal government to plot a path out of lockdowns looked at what would happen if the country opened up at vaccination rates of 50, 60, 70 and 80 per cent, but not 90 per cent.

In the worst case scenario, the Doherty Institute modelling showed 48,548 Covid-19 hospitalisations, 11,965 ICU admissions and 8873 deaths in the first 180 days after opening up at the 70 per cent vaccination threshold.

HOW THE STATES COMPARE

NEW SOUTH WALES

Current vaccination rate:

84.7% 1st dose 57.8% fully vaxxed

70%: five fully vaxxed visitors at home, 20 gather outdoors, hospitality venues, hairdressers and pubs open at 1 person per 4 sqm, domestic travel resumes.

No further plans have been released yet.

80% full vaccination date (12 and up): October 27.

90% full vaccination date (12 and up): November 12.

Full details: NSW Roadmap

VICTORIA

Current vaccination rate:

76.3% 1st dose 46.6% fully vaxxed

70%: 9pm curfew will be lifted, up to 10 vaccinated and five unvaccinated people can gather outdoors, hospitality will be outdoor only and seated, open to those who are fully vaccinated with a limit of 50 people.

80%: Travel resumes but will be dependent on border restrictions, schools will reopen, 10 people will be able to gather in homes and up to 30 outdoors for the fully vaxxed, and up to 150 people will be allowed in pubs, clubs and entertainment venues.

No further plans have been released yet.

80% full vaccination date (12 and up): November 11

90% full vaccination date (12 and up): December 1.

Full details: Victoria’s Roadmap

QUEENSLAND

Current vaccination rate:

62.8% 1st dose 44.0% fully vaxxed

No roadmap has been released yet. But the State is in Stage 3 of their Covid Safe Future roadmap, which is reviewed fortnightly.

80% full vaccination date (12 and up): December 20

90% full vaccination date (12 and up): January 11

Full details: QLD Roadmap

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Current vaccination rate:

65.1% 1st dose 46.5% fully vaxxed

No roadmap has been released yet.

80% full vaccination date (12 and up): December 13

90% full vaccination date (12 and up): January 12

A busker plays his piano accordion wearing his face mask in Perth’s Hay Street Mall. Life is going on much as always in the west. Picture: Paul Kane/Getty Images
A busker plays his piano accordion wearing his face mask in Perth’s Hay Street Mall. Life is going on much as always in the west. Picture: Paul Kane/Getty Images

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Current vaccination rate:

62.5% 1st dose 43.9% fully vaxxed

No roadmap has been released yet.

Most restrictions have eased, but some measures remain in place.

80% full vaccination date (12 and up): December 20

90% full vaccination date (12 and up): January 12

TASMANIA

Current vaccination rate:

73.7% 1st dose 55.1% fully vaxxed

No roadmap has been released yet.

80% full vaccination date (12 and up): November 22

90% full vaccination date (12 and up): December 10

NORTHERN TERRITORY

Current vaccination rate:

64.5% 1st dose 50.0% fully vaxxed

The Chief Minister said while NSW and Victoria were talking about their plans to reopen their economies, the Territory was already open and no restrictions that needed relaxing.

80% full vaccination date (12 and up): December 18

90% full vaccination date (12 and up): January 13

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY

Current vaccination rate:

85.0% 1st dose 59.5% fully vaxxed

Lockdown is slated to run until October 15, but more information about the roadmap is set to be released next week.

80% full vaccination date (12 and up): October 30

90% full vaccination date (12 and up): November 12

Vaccination date modelling provided by Dr Chris Billington

Additional reporting by Adella Beaini

Originally published as Premiers warned over 90 per cent vaccination targets

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Original URL: https://www.themercury.com.au/coronavirus/premiers-warned-over-90-per-cent-vaccination-targets/news-story/9260b562f8bef4cb5d83a8138737a2da