Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning! Here’s everything you need to know before the ASX flings open its doors and begins trading today.

Everything you need to know before the ASX opens. Pic: Getty Images.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Friday, July 4, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

ASX futures were pointing up by 0.4% at 7am AEST Friday, and the local market has every reason to feel a bit chipper.

That’s because over in the States, Wall Street just clocked a triple treat: the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all surged into fresh highs before ducking off early for their Independence Day barbie.

Wall Street flies, Trump adds fireworks

The S&P and Nasdaq hit new closing records, again, with the S&P climbing 0.8%, the Nasdaq up 1%, and the Dow sneaking in a 0.8% gain of its own.

STOCK INDICES	Value	Change
ASX 200 (previous day)	8,596	-0.02%
S&P 500	6,279	0.83%
Dow Jones	44,829	0.77%
Nasdaq Comp	20,601	1.02%
Euro Stoxx 50	5,343	0.46%
UK FTSE	8,823	0.55%
German DAX	23,934	0.61%
French CAC	7,755	0.21%

Six of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps rallied, with Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia leading the charge.

Nvidia briefly touched a world-first $3.92 trillion market cap in intraday trade, putting it within sniffing distance of becoming the most valuable company ever, dethroning Apple’s 2023 crown.

Microsoft wasn't far behind, with Wedbush tipping it could hit $4 trillion this summer.

Meta also climbed after analyst Laura Martin said Meta generates over US$730,000 in free cash flow per employee. You can almost hear Zuckerberg whispering, “Zuck and grind.”

Meanwhile, Trump threw more fuel on the fire by demanding Fed Chair Jerome Powell resign immediately.

The market lapped it up, hoping Trump’s pressure campaign might grease the wheels for lower interest rates.

And if you’re holding crypto, keep one eye on Bitcoin, it’s sitting just above US$109,000, hinting at a potential breakout after two months of range-bound slumber.

Jobs report sizzles

Then came the sparkler that really set Wall Street alight: the US June jobs report.

A whopping 147,000 new payrolls landed, smashing forecasts of 106,000, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.

May's figures were revised upward too, and that had traders quietly shelving their hopes for a July rate cut.

“You are not getting a July rate cut, that is now completely off the table,” said RSM’s chief economist Joe Brusuelas.

deVere CEO Nigel Green took it a step further, calling the jobs print “a game-changer” and warning investors to reprice everything - equities, currencies, risk - before September.

“Those still positioned for a dovish turn are ignoring the data,” he said. “And in this cycle, that’s dangerous.”

Trump’s $3.4 trillion tax bill passes

Meanwhile, Trump just scored a massive win with his $3.4 trillion tax-and-spend package, which passed the House by a whisker and guts much of Biden’s clean-energy push.

The bill slashes taxes, tightens welfare like Medicaid and food stamps, and hands fresh perks to working families and businesses.

It’s a full-blown economic pivot: big tax cuts now, spending cuts later.

The package also axes EV subsidies and green tax breaks, while giving Trump’s military and border plans a boost.

Critics say it will balloon the US deficit, but supporters reckon it will revive growth and rein in waste.

Either way, Trump plans to sign it on July 4.

Iron ore bulls keep charging

Over in the dirt world, iron ore prices hit a three-month high as Chinese steel demand keeps chugging along.

But more supply is coming online, and Goldman expects prices to slide to around US$90/t by Q4 2025.

Australia’s government is already bracing for a hit.

Its latest Resources and Energy Quarterly predicts iron ore export revenues will drop from $116 billion in FY25 to $97 billion by FY27.

Goldies could come under pressure today

Gold prices dipped nearly 1% after that hot US payroll number snuffed out immediate rate cut hopes.

That pushed the US dollar and Treasury yields higher, bad news for bullion, which pays no yield and tends to glow brightest when rates are falling.

Still, gold remains one of 2025’s star assets, up over 25% for the year and just US$170 shy of its all-time high from April.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

Price (US)	Move
Gold:	$3,326.01	-0.94%
Silver:	$36.84	0.75%
Iron ore:	$96.24	1.17%
Nickel:	$15,373.00	0.21%
Copper:	$10,177.40	-1.11%
Zinc:	$2,745.50	-0.37%
Lithium carbonate 99.5% Min China Spot:	$8,150.00	-0.05%
Oil (WTI):	$67.13	-0.47%
Oil (Brent):	$68.89	-0.32%
AUD/USD:	$0.6569	0.13%
Bitcoin:	$109,824	0.87%

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Copper is on a red hot tear right now, and analysts think it could stay strong through the back end of 2025. Which ASX plays are looking good?

Uranium, coal and copper were among the top moving commodities in June, as a mid-month gold rally dissipated with fading safe haven demand.

Who made the gains in June? Check out the top ASX resources winners.

Health Check: ProMedicus (ASX:PME) shares smash record $300 barrier on back of mega deals.

TRADING HALTS

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This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.

Originally published as Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens