Hot Money Monday: Gold is on fire. Could these five gold stocks light up your 2025?

Fuelled by central bank demand and geopolitics, gold prices could surge in 2025. These are BPC’s top gold stocks to watch.

Could gold price surge even higher in 2025? Pic: Getty Images

• Gold surge fuelled by central bank demand and geopolitics

• Gold price could surge higher in 2025

• Here are the top gold stocks to watch according to BPC

Gold had an incredible run in 2024, making it one of the top-performing assets of the year with a 27% gain.

And last week, that rally has continued as the yellow metal clinched its all time high of US$2817.12/oz.

The surge has been driven by central banks buying up gold, investor demand, lower real yields and rising geopolitical risks.

With potential tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty hanging over the global economy, especially under a renewed Trump Administration, the case for gold as a safe-haven investment in 2025 is strong, says a note from BPC Wealth Management.

During the US-China trade war of 2018-2019, for instance, gold saw an initial dip but rebounded as tensions escalated, proving its resilience as a safe-haven asset.

“Gold has historically maintained a consistently low - and occasionally negative - correlation with traditional asset classes like equities and bonds,” said BPC.

Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have also been significant drivers of gold demand.

In 2024, central banks bought over 53 tonnes of gold in just one month, continuing a 15-year streak of net purchases.

Countries like China, India, Poland, and Turkey have been key players, using gold to diversify away from the US dollar.

“Gold’s inverse relationship with the US dollar remains a key driver of its price," the firm's analysts said.

China, in particular, has been a dual force in the gold market. Not only is it a major consumer, but its investor demand surged by 46% in the first half of 2024.

Read later: Gold hits new record. Does the party stop here, or keep on going?

Looking at gold mining stocks, BPC said there are some solid opportunities for investors to consider.

Here are some quick takes on BPC’s 5 ASX gold companies to watch:

Gold Road Resources (ASX:GOR)

Gold Road smashed it  in the December quarter, with it and Gruyere JV half-owner and operator Gold Fields posting a highest-ever quarterly production of 91,631 ounces.

That was the silver lining after a year full of operational challenges. It ended up producing 287,270 ounces for the year, just shy of its target (290,000–305,000 ounces), though that was a revision downwards from 300,000-335,000oz.

Gold Road processed 2.4 million tonnes of ore and achieved a solid recovery rate of 92.2%.

Looking ahead, full access to Gruyere pits (Stages 3 and 4) is secured, and Gold Road is gearing up for Stage 5 mining in 2025.

“Gold Road is targeting a production milestone of approximately 350,000 ounces in 2025, with plans to sustain this level of output through 2032,” BPC noted.

Notably, Gold Road is sitting on one of the most attractive cash positions globally in the mid-tier gold space thanks to its 17.3% stake in De Grey Mining, that's worth around $830m at the moment, with De Grey's share price elevated thanks to a premium takeover bid from Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST).

Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL)

Bellevue is making its move.

The company kicked off commercial production in FY24, hitting 80,000 ounces in the second half, and bringing in $41 million in free cash flow in the June 2024 quarter.

The forecast for FY25 is even better, with production expected to skyrocket to over 200,000 ounces annually by Q4.

Reserves are growing fast, with Probable Ore Reserves up to 1.51Moz at 5.0 g/t gold and Indicated Resources growing to 2.0Moz at 10.1 g/t gold.

“Bellevue has allocated $60 million for exploration in FY25 and FY26, targeting high-priority growth areas such as southern extensions of the Bellevue and Viago shear zones,” said BPC.

There are uncertainties in the market. Bellevue recently disappointed investors with its latest quarterly results, chopping guidance from 165,000-180,000oz for FY25 to 150,000-165,000oz, though it expects to produce 90,000oz in the June half.

Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST)

Northern Star is also making its moves.

It’s in the process of acquiring De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG), which owns the massive Hemi Gold Project in Western Australia.

With mineral resources of 11.2Moz and ore reserves of 6Moz, Northern Star bill boost its annual gold production by around 530,000 ounces for the first 10 years of the mine's life.

That's on top of what should by next year be a 2Mozpa portfolio led by Kalgoorlie's legendary Super Pit.

At $5bn, all covered by Northern Star scrip assuming there are no interlopers, the De Grey acquisition is the largest for a pre-development ASX gold stock and should help drive growth for Northern Star in the long run.

Newmont Corporation (ASX:NEM)

Newmont continues to be the world’s top gold producer.

Not only is it the world's largest gold producer, but its portfolio also includes copper, zinc, lead, and silver. Newmont is spread across top mining regions like Africa, Southeast Asia, Australia and Latin America.

The company is the only gold producer listed in the S&P 500, which just shows how much influence it has in the market.

In Q3 2024, its earnings per share (EPS) of $0.81 came in just below expectations ($0.86), but its revenue saw a massive 84.7% jump, hitting $4.61 billion.

“Newmont remains the only gold producer listed in the S&P 500 Index, emphasising its market leadership and industry influence," BPC said.

NEM recently completed a major process of divesting non-core assets, generating what could end up being up to US$4.3bn in total proceeds, well above its initial US$2bn target.

Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD)

Genesis has been getting things done ahead of schedule.

Raleigh Finlayson's gold miner accelerated the restart of its Laverton mill last year, moving production six months ahead of schedule, noted BPC.

For FY25, it’s now expecting to produce 190,000–210,000 ounces, up from its earlier estimate of 162,000–188,000 ounces.

The goal is to hit 325,000 ounces annually by 2029, with exploration results looking strong and operational efficiency improving.

Genesis owns the flagship Gwalia mine near Leonora, one of the world's longest-running gold operations with a legacy stretching back to future US President Herbert Hoover's days as its mine manager in the late 1890s.

With the team pushing full steam ahead, Genesis could be a solid investment for the long term, added BPC.

The views, information, or opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the broker and do not represent the views of Stockhead.

Stockhead has not provided, endorsed or otherwise assumed responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article.

Originally published as Hot Money Monday: Gold is on fire. Could these five gold stocks light up your 2025?