Guzman y Gomez’s boss is confident of sales growth despite economic uncertainty
The sharemarket has lost trillions of dollars, trade wars are raging and a global recession is feared, but Guzman y Gomez’s boss is placing his faith in people’s appetite.
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Guzman y Gomez founder and chief executive Steven Marks is highly confident diners will keep coming through the doors of his Mexican-themed chain’s restaurants – despite sharemarket upheavals, trade wars and the risk of a global recession – proclaiming that “people still gotta eat”.
“They are fine, they gotta eat. That’s what we always say, you still gotta eat and no matter what Trump does it is such incredible value and quality food – and you can see it in our numbers,” Mr Marks told The Australian.
His comments were made as the fast-food chain issued its third-quarter sales performance on Tuesday, revealing strong sales growth and confirming it will exceed full-year earnings guidance.
“If you give them (customers) a proposition that has such high quality and value, they keep on coming – and this is what fast food is for this generation,” he said.
Consumer confidence has plunged as hundreds of billions has been wiped off the Australian sharemarket, and as the likelihood of a US recession increases due to the fallout from President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement. Westpac’s latest consumer sentiment index, released on Tuesday, shows a 6 per cent slide, its biggest in two years.
But segments of the fast-food market could be somewhat immune, or even benefit.
Mr Marks said although it was true his diners skewed heavily to younger people, including teenagers, his older customers – who were invested in the market – were still turning up.
“We have a lot of 18 to 35 year olds and 40 year olds that come in. Those people are invested in the market and it doesn’t matter. You have to eat and it is cheaper than what you can make at home.”
On Friday, Guzman y Gomez said comparable sales growth in the Australian segment – where 211 of its total 241 stores are located – continued across all channels, parts of the day, formats and store ownership types. Daytime growth was a highlight during the quarter, with an acceleration of sales growth in breakfast as tradies load up on brekkie burritos, and after-9pm trading.
Same store sales growth for the group’s bulk Australian stores was 11.1 per cent for the third quarter of 2025, against sales growth of 5.9 per cent for the same period last year. Guzman y Gomez reaffirmed margins of around 17.8 per cent for its Australian stores and expectations of exceeding its 2025 net profit prospectus forecast. It also said it expected to announce its maiden dividend as a listed company at the full-year results.
The chain said that sales in Australia for the third quarter hit $267.6m, against $217.5m in the third quarter for 2024. Sales in Singapore were $16.6m, up from $12.4m; in Japan at $2.1m, up from $1.7m; and in the US sales were $3.2m for the quarter, up from $2.6m. In the US segment, network sales increased during the quarter, largely due to the opening of two new restaurants. Mr Marks said although the company’s US stores imported some menu items from Mexico, its produce was overwhelmingly locally sourced and so tariffs on Mexican products would not impact its burgeoning US operations.
He said Guzman y Gomez’s breakfast menu was strongly resonating with diners and was delivering value for money.
“We had a very strong quarter and it has been a very strong year. I always get asked about economic uncertainty and this is why I love being in fast food, especially GyG’s version of fast food.
“I saw a report that did a (review) of price per gram and it found that our food is cheaper than traditional fast food. I think that is what is resonating.
“You look at all these traditional guys that are in the market here and we are killing them.”
Shares in Guzman y Gomez rallied as much as 5 per cent on update,before closing up 4.08 per cent at $31.22.
Wilsons Advisory analyst James Ferrier said the quarterly update reflected a strong sales performance for the restaurant chain – despite some moderate slowing from the first seven weeks of the quarter – and particularly robust trade through the morning as diners swarm to Guzman y Gomez stores for breakfast.
“We are encouraged by reference to acceleration in sales growth for breakfast and after 9pm, particularly given the operating leverage available in these day parts as customer count and transactions scale up.”
He remains attracted to the strong unit economics in the Australian store network and sees Guzman y Gomez as well-funded and well-resourced to pursue its growth strategy.
Wilsons Advisory has retained an overweight rating on the stock and its 12-month share price target of $42.47 is now under review.
Originally published as Guzman y Gomez’s boss is confident of sales growth despite economic uncertainty
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