Chocolate is going to cost you even more as cocoa prices skyrocket

Chocolate lovers, your guilty pleasure is going to cost you even more because the world’s biggest cocoa producing region of West Africa is struggling with its harvest.

A Rabobank report predicts the cost of chocolate will ‘sharply increase’ as record high global cocoa prices flow through.

People might need to think more about their hip pocket rather than their hip size when considering their next chocolate purchase as record high global cocoa prices are expected to flow through to a “sharp” spike at the checkout.

In a depressingly titled report “Soaring Cocoa prices: The worst is yet to come,” Rabobank predicts that the cost of chocolate for consumers will “sharply increase”.

“Significantly higher chocolate prices will likely hit shelves over the coming months and going into 2025, providing a major challenge for the chocolate sector which is already battling a longer-term, structural decline in demand,” the report says.

Cocoa prices had already reached a record high in April and are now up 90 per cent since the start of the calendar year.

Chocolate enthusiasts may have already noticed occasional shortages on the shelves of supermarket chains such as Aldi – which has a cult following for products such as its Moser Roth dark chocolate.

Aldi’s Moser Roth branded range of chocolate.

An Aldi spokesman acknowledged the price rise for cocoa and other key ingredients in chocolate making, and said the low-cost supermarket chain was working to keep a cap on any price rises for consumers.

“Over the last year the prices of commodities required to produce chocolate have increased,” the spokesman said.

“We are working hand in hand with our business partners to deliver the best value and highest quality products to Aussie shoppers. It’s always our ambition to keep prices as low as possible.”

In its just released global report on cocoa, Rabobank said a disappointing harvest in West Africa, where 70 per cent of the world’s product is harvested, had led to prices reaching 50-year highs.

 

Many cocoa producers have struggled with intense heat and rain over the past two years. This has led to a 14.2 per cent drop in supply for the 2023-24 season, equating to a 462,000 metric ton shortage and “the lowest cocoa stocks in 22 years”.

“Since January 2023, cocoa futures have shattered the calm of their previous trading range, peaking at nearly $US12,000 per metric ton in the first half of 2024,” RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules said.

When prices previously peaked in April many chocolate producers were still protected by hedged prices and long-term supply contracts, but the Rabobank report says many of those will now be ending.

“Significantly higher chocolate prices will likely hit shelves over the coming months and going into 2025, providing a major challenge for the chocolate sector, which is already battling a longer-term, structural decline in demand,” the report says.

Local farmers gather dried cocoa beans to be weighed before selling them to merchants in a village outside of Kumasi, Ghana. Picture: Bloomberg

This forecast comes on the back of already soaring chocolate prices.

The June quarterly Consumer Price Index data from Australian Bureau of Statistics showed year-on-year inflation in the snacks and confectionery category of 4.6 per cent.

Mr Joules said this reflected a similar sized year-on-year jump in the June 2023 quarter, so the cumulative increase in this category between June 2022 and June 2024 was 21.8 per cent.

For dark chocolate lovers this is particularly bad news as it uses more cocoa than milk chocolate. White chocolate appreciators will be least impacted as the only cocoa it contains is in the butter ingredient.

Mr Joules said many chocolate producers resorted to so-called “shrinkflation,” whereby they reduced the size of the retail product and hoped consumers wouldn’t notice.

Tactics might include “shrinkflation”, whereby volume or size is reduced although the price is maintained, and “skimpflation”, which involves altering recipes to use less cocoa and more fillers,” Mr Joules said.

“These tactics, while effective, are often unpopular with consumers,” he said.

Originally published as Chocolate is going to cost you even more as cocoa prices skyrocket