‘City killer’ asteroid could hit moon after Earth likely to dodge a direct hit

A “city killer” asteroid had a chance of striking Earth in 2032 is now expected to miss the planet. But there’s a chance it will smash into the moon.

A “city killer” asteroid experts feared was on a crash course with Earth is now expected to miss the planet – but it still has a chance of smashing into the moon.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, first detected in December 2024 and believed to have a three per cent chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, now has a near-zero chance of striking Earth, NASA wrote in an update on Wednesday.

When concerns about the asteroid – which scientists previously cautioned could be a “city killer” – were at an highest earlier this year, astronomer Andrew Rivkin conducted a five-hour observation of the space rock and found it may make impact elsewhere: the moon.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 will likely spare Earth, but still has a chance of hitting the Moon. Picture: European Space Agency/AP

The football field-sized asteroid’s odds of striking the moon on December 22, 2032, jumped from 1.7 per cent in late February to 3.8 per cent based on data collected using the James Webb Space Telescope, the New York Postreports.

While there’s still a 96.2 per cent chance the asteroid will miss the satellite completely — if it were to make impact, it wouldn’t alter the moon’s orbit, according to experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was believed to have a three per cent chance of hitting the Earth in 2032 Picture: NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology/Ryan /AFP

Previous reports also were off about the asteroid’s size, claiming it would have a diameter between 40 and 90 meters, however, Mr Rivkin’s study determined a more exact measurement of 60 meters, give or take seven meters, according to a report in the New Scientist.

Now that the asteroid will likely steer clear of Earth, astronomers are gearing up for the possibility of it crashing into the moon – providing an unprecedented opportunity to study the massive crater it would create.

The football field-sized asteroid’s odds of striking the moon has increased. Picture: NASA / GSFC / Arizona State University / Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter

“Part of our motivation to continue observing this asteroid specifically is to figure out, is that number gonna go up or is it also going to go to zero,” says Mr Rivkin.

“But a two per cent chance of hitting means a 98 per cent chance of not hitting. If you were in a casino, you’d be crazy to take that bet.”

Scientists will study the asteroid with the Webb telescope, which can track and maintain data of far-off faint objects, again in May, before the giant space rock disappears into the outer solar system for the next several years.

This article originally appeared in the New York Post and has been reproduced with permission.

Originally published as ‘City killer’ asteroid could hit moon after Earth likely to dodge a direct hit