Astronomers raise likelihood of YR4 asteroid hitting Earth to 2.3 per cent

Astronomers have raised the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth to a brow-sweating 2.3 per cent.

Astronomers have raised the likelihood of “city-killer” asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth to 2.3 per cent, or roughly one in 43.

Just a week ago, the European Space Agency (ESA) placed the odds at 1.3 per cent, meaning nearly a 99 per cent chance of a near miss.

Spotted just before the new year by NASA-funded astronomers using a telescope in Chile, the asteroid is estimated to be up to 90 meters wide — roughly the size of the Tunguska asteroid that flattened 1335 square kilometres of Siberian forest in 1908.

It is predicted to pass by (or hit) Earth in 2032.

The object now sits at the top of official impact risk lists on both sides of the Atlantic, earning a rare rating of three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranges from zero (no risk) to ten (civilisation-ending impact).

But despite the increasing odds, astronomers have urged the public not to panic.

This handout picture provided by NASA on January 31, 2025 shows asteroid 2024 YR4 as observed by the Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope at the New Mexico Institute of Technology on January 27, 2025. (Photo by Handout / NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology/Ryan / AFP)

“Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly,” said Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh. “It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that.”

NASA’s Planetary Defence Coordination Office echoes also pointed out that new data often reduces impact risks once more precise observations come in.

“There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in,” researcher Molly Wasser said.

ESA also released a video titled “How asteroids go from threat to no sweat”, which explains how refined calculations usually downgrade impact risks.

What if it’s still coming?

Even if 2024 YR4 remains on a collision course, NASA’s DART mission in 2022 proved that deflection technology is possible. The hi-tech program successfully altered an asteroid’s path by crashing a spacecraft into it, meaning we’ve essentially upgraded our capabilities to wage war with the universe, should it choose to send civilisation-ending space rocks our way.

“This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like DART could be effective, if required, so we have the technology and it has been tested,” Snodgrass said.

Originally published as Astronomers raise likelihood of YR4 asteroid hitting Earth to 2.3 per cent